Here we are 145 days from the election, and Joe Biden is making clear his belief that Donald Trump will do anything to steal the election, but the military, clearly, will prevent that!
The apology of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley for having allowed himself to walk with Donald Trump on June 1 for that disgraceful trip to the Episcopal Church, after tear gas, rubber bullets and low flying helicopters were weapons against peaceful demonstrators, is a great sign of what Biden is saying.
With so many former military, intelligence, and national security personnel also condemning what happened, and with Defense Secretary Mark Esper also apologizing last week, it is clear that Donald Trump will be arrested and taken out in handcuffs on January 20, 2021, if he does not leave peacefully.
It is also clear that we may not know the results of the election due to mail ballots, and there will likely be an extended period of uncertainty, similar to what happened in 1876-1877 and in 2000.
But the difference is that Samuel Tilden and Al Gore were willing to accept, peacefully, the results in those two elections, as they were true patriots.
Donald Trump is not, so we could very well see a sitting President removed by military force if he tries to interfere with a peaceful transition!
Every poll imaginable sees Trump losing easily, so hopefully, what is projected will happen, as the worst possible scenario is a very close election!
i think a much more interesting ~ or at least provocative ~ question is: What will happen if Trump wins?
What will happen if the dirtiest, ugliest, costliest campaign in history has about six or seven States like Florida in 2000 or Georgia last week? And it ends up that Trump is ultimately declared the winner?, as in 2020, by the SCOTUS?
Think there’ll be an inauguration on January 20?
Jeffrey, there will be an inauguration on January 20, 2021, no matter who wins.
And if Trump were to win, he would be gloating, now wouldn’t he?
Why would he NOT have an inauguration, as it would be the key moment of his sick life!
If Trump loses, which I feel fairly certain he will, he’ll be tweeting “It’s rigged, it’s rigged”.
Trump’s Solution to a Drop in the Polls: More Racism
It’s not part of some grand strategy. It’s just his gut instinct.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/06/12/trumps-solution-to-a-drop-in-the-polls-more-racism/
The GOP’s Revealing Decision Not to Debate on a 2020 Platform
It’s yet another sign that the Republican Party’s conversion to a cult is complete.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/06/12/the-gops-revealing-decision-not-to-debate-on-a-2020-platform/
The question wasn’t “If Trump wins, would he prevent an inauguration?”
The question was: “If Trump wins under the circumstances of significantly screwed up and/or suspicious circumstances, will the American people who didn’t vote for him let that inauguration happen?”
Jeffrey, the inauguration will occur, even with demonstrations, as it did with Hayes in 1877 and GW Bush in 2001!
Biden’s VP list has shortened.
https://www.wsls.com/news/politics/2020/06/12/bidens-vp-list-narrows-warren-harris-susan-rice-others/
Joe Biden is winning female voters by a historic margin.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics/biden-women-voters-analysis/index.html
June 14, 2020 @ 12:30 a.m. ET—Responding to the poll report posted by Princess Leia:
CNN’s reported poll results says Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump leads men nationally by +6 while presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads women nationally by +25.
The poll is basically reporting a 30-point gender gap.
In 2016, national exit polls for U.S. President had Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump nationally carry men by +11. Losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton nationally carried women by +13.
That was a gender gap of 24 points.
A 30-point gap is extreme.
In the 2018 midterm elections, with Democrats having won a pickup of the U.S. House of Representatives, the gender gap was +23. The Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by +8.56. Republicans carried men by +4. Democrats carried women by +19.
I think the national gender gap would be no greater than, say, 25 points. Possibly the range of 21 to 25. Usually, I would lean it toward the range of 16 to 20.
In 2008, the last year the White House switched from Republican to Democratic, the gender gap was 12 points. Losing Republican nominee John McCain failed to hold onto the male vote, nationally, and his margin was –1. So, Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama won over the male vote, nationally, by +1. He carried females nationwide by +13. And he won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7.26.
I am guessing, at this point, that a 2020 Democratic presidential pickup would produce a U.S. Popular Vote margin of at least +7. It may top off at +10. If it is a really dramatic wave, it may go to, say, +12.
Under those circumstances, it would be difficult for Donald Trump to nationally carry men by as much as +6. By these levels—and in national wave going against him and his political party—I think he would barely nationally carry men; if he does manage to hold on with them.
This is because of the involved states which would be flipping from 2016 Republican to 2020 Democratic. I think right away of Top 10 populous states: Michigan and Pennsylvania—each of which would produce Democratic margins around +10 points (say, +2 and +1 above the 2020 Democrats’ U.S. Popular Vote margin)—as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. And I am even adding, should the U.S. Popular Vote margin top off at +7, Texas. That would be carriage of nine of the nation’s Top 10 populous states. If the U.S. Popular Vote margin reaches +8, that will deliver Ohio. At that point, that would be all Top 10 populous states ending up in the 2020 Democrats’ column before factoring other pickups like Top 20-populous Arizona and, as the tipping-point state of 2016 (and it may be again here in 2020), fellow Rust Belt state Wisconsin.
This includes states which diminish their Republican levels in margins—that their 2016-to-2020 shifts go in the direction of the Democrats. Not every single state has been polled, in recent times, but I get the sense at least 45 states are shifting away from the incumbent White House party, the Republican Party, and toward the opposition party, the Democratic Party.
During all this, you have the 2016-to-2020 Democratic holds in states which would end up solidifying their blue margins. I question California (because Hillary Clinton’s margin there, at +29.99, was uncommonly high—28 points above the party’s national support when they usually carry California between 15 to 20 points in excess). But it starts with Top 10 populous states New York and Illinois (three of the Top 10 which carried for Hillary Clinton). And it goes on down to Top 20-ranked New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, and so on (even past the Top 20 ranks with start with both Colorado and Minnesota).
So, you have a national wave—against the incumbent and in favor of the opposition—and that wave involves the votes of people among both genders. Under these circumstances, I think Trump would go from +11, with men in 2016, to questionably barely holding them here in 2020.
D, this is wonderful news!
Let us know which 5 states are not trending Democratic as compared to the last election.
If I had to guess, I would think they would include Oklahoma, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Idaho, so curious how accurate I am!
Ronald writes, “D, this is wonderful news! | Let us know which 5 states are not [shifting] Democratic as compared to the last election. | If I had to guess, I would think they would include Oklahoma, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Idaho, so curious how accurate I am!â€
I would like all 50 states, and the congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, and District of Columbia polled.
If Election 2020 turns out to become a Democratic pickup of the presidency, with Joe Biden unseating Republican incumbent Donald Trump, I would not be surprised if at least 48 states shift their 2016-to-2020 margins away from the incumbent party, the Republican Party, and toward the opposition party, the Democratic Party.
This would not be unusual.
The 1976 Democratic presidential pickup year (with Jimmy Carter having unseated Republican Gerald Ford) saw all 50 states shift Democratic. In 1980 (a Republican pickup for Ronald Reagan having unseated Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter), 1992 (a Democratic pickup with Bill Clinton having unseated Republican incumbent George Bush), and 2000 (a term-limited year flipping the presidency Republican to George W. Bush), there were 49 states which shifted toward the pickup winning parties. In 2008 (a term-limited year flipping the presidency Democratic to Barack Obama), there were 45 states which shifted toward the pickup winning party. In 2016 (a term-limited year flipping the presidency Republican to Donald Trump), 39 states shifted toward the pickup winning party.
You take those last six cycles, in which the White House party switched, there was an average of 46 states which shifted away from the incumbent [White House] party and toward the opposition [pickup winning] party.
The question is: “[Where] is a 2016-to-2020 Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump shifting in his and his party’s direction?â€
* * * * * * * * * * *
Here, taking it from the perspective of the 2020 Republicans and incumbent Donald Trump, were the margins in Election 2016:
* * * 2012 TO 2016 REPUBLICAN * * *
— Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District +54.19
01. Wyoming +46.30
02. West Virginia +41.68
03. Oklahoma +36.39
04. North Dakota +35.73
05. Idaho +31.76
06. Kentucky +29.84
07. South Dakota +29.79
08. Alabama +27.73
09. Arkansas +26.92
10. Tennessee +26.01
11. Nebraska [statewide] +25.05
— Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District +20.72
12. Kansas +20.42
13. Montana +20.23
14. Louisiana +19.64
15. Indiana +19.01
16. Missouri +18.51
17. Utah +17.89
18. Mississippi +17.80
19. Alaska +14.73
20. South Carolina +14.27
21. Texas +8.98
22. Georgia +5.10
23. North Carolina +3.66
24. Arizona +3.50
— Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District +2.23
* * * 2012 DEMOCRATIC TO 2016 REPUBLICAN * * *
— Maine’s 2nd Congressional District +10.28
25. Iowa +9.41
26. Ohio +8.07
— Average Margin from Pickup States: +3.39 —
— Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote Margin (whole number): +2 —
27. Florida +1.19
28. Wisconsin +0.76
29. Pennsylvania +0.72
30. Michigan +0.22
* * * 2012 TO 2016 DEMOCRATIC * * *
31. New Hampshire –0.36
32. Minnesota –1.51
— U.S. Popular Vote Margin: –2.09 —
33. Nevada –2.42
34. Maine [statewide] –2.96
35. Colorado –4.91
36. Virginia –5.32
37. New Mexico –8.21
38. Oregon –10.98
39. Delaware –11.37
40. Connecticut –13.64
41. New Jersey –13.98
— Maine’s 1st Congressional District –14.81
42. Rhode Island –15.51
43. Washington –15.71
44. Illinois –16.89
45. New York –22.49
46. Vermont –26.41
47. Maryland –26.42
48. Massachusetts –27.20
49. California –29.99
50. Hawaii –32.18
— District of Columbia –86.78
* SUMMARY *
With the possible exception of Utah (a state to watch in case it may be generally trending toward the Democrats; it used to be the Republicans’ No. 1), all from the 2012-to-2016 Republican list are shifting away.
This is clearly the case as well with those 2012 Democratic-to-2016 Republican. (These are most obvious.)
From the third list, those which were 2012-to-2016 Democratic, I would watch out for California possibly stabilizing. What do I mean? Refer to 1988-to-1992 Iowa. It was a 1988 Democratic pickup for Michael Dukakis by +10.21 when he lost nationally by –7.73. It was 18 points more Democratic when, from 1992 to 2012, Iowa was usually about +2 points more Democratic than the nation. That 1992 result put Iowa on the level of being a bellwether state during that period. There were issues going on in Election 1988 with a farm crisis in that area, including the Dakotas, where Republican winner George Bush underperformed typical party performance. (North Dakota and South Dakota are usually about 20 points more Republican than Iowa. Bush Sr. was the first winning Republican who did not carry Iowa.) So, in 1992, Iowa stabilized by giving Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton a margin of +6.02 vs. his national +5.56.
Here in 2020, Utah and California may do some numbers adjusting—a little bit redder compared to 2016—to get back in line with more typical pattern in performance. Perhaps.
For all other 48 states, as well as non-states like District of Columbia, I don’t sense any of them are going to get any redder here in 2020. They’re shifting away. They would be a part of a national Blue Wave.