Arizona

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

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Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

The Supreme Court’s Political Impact On The 2012 Presidential And Congressional Elections

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The Supreme Court has decided to intervene and settle three controversial issues that are key factors in the 2012 Presidential and Congressional Elections.

They have taken on the case of the Obama Health Care law; the Arizona Immigration legislation; and the Texas Congressional Redistricting case, all of which have a much greater impact than just the specific details of the cases on their own.

If the Health Care legislation is declared unconstitutional , it will create chaos in the health care field, as parts of the law are already in effect.

If the decision on the Arizona law regarding illegal immigration favors that state, it will create the danger of further spreading of such actions all over, and create new civil liberties issues for the foreign born in this country, and weaken the power of the federal government over immigration, which has always been a national responsibility.

If the decision is to back Texas redistricting, which is seen as unfair gerrymandering, and an attempt to weaken Hispanic and Latino influence in Texas, as well as unfair advantage for the Republican Party over the Democratic Party in that state, then it will reverberate elsewhere.

These three cases are crucial for the future of our political, social and economic system, and will be among the most significant cases of recent times in Supreme Court history.

The reality that the Court could go too far to the right is a long term troubling matter, and also brings to the forefront the importance of who is President in 2013 and after, as the likelihood of Supreme Court replacements grows in the next term, with one to three replacements possible, and determining the long term future direction of the Supreme Court.

The cases also highlight the importance, again, of Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, considered the “swing” vote on a Court equally divided between Left and Right!

So to say that the Supreme Court does not get involved in politics is, very clearly, a misunderstanding of our system of government!

Four “McCain” States Which Could Be Won By Barack Obama In 2012

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A lot of attention is being given to the idea that President Barack Obama could lose some of the “swing states” that he won in the Presidential Election of 2008–including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in the South; New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast; Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota in the Midwest; and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the Mountain West.

While it is true that he could lose some of these states, what is less recognized and talked about is the potential for Barack Obama to win FOUR states which went to John McCain–Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Missouri with 10 electoral votes, Arizona with 11 electoral votes, and Texas with 38 electoral votes–therefore a possible total of 75 electoral votes!

This is not saying Obama is certain to win any of the four states listed above, but it is POSSIBLE, primarily because of the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Georgia, Arizona and Texas, and because Missouri was lost by only about 4,000 votes! Missouri is the state which has always gone with the winner in Presidential elections since 1900, with only two exceptions–1956 when Adlai Stevenson defeated President Eisenhower by about 4,000 votes, and then in 2008 when Senator John McCain also won by about 4,000 votes over President Obama!

The odds would seem better in Missouri first and Georgia second, much less likely in Arizona, and a long shot in Texas. Certainly, in theory, these states are much more likely to go Democratic in future years, as the Republicans are losing the future with their anti immigrant philosophy and rhetoric.

So the Presidential Election of 2012 has not only FOURTEEN states as “swing states”, but also possibly another FOUR, making it a total of EIGHTEEN states which will be the focus of most of the political campaigning and advertising over the next eleven months!

The Amazing Recovery Of Gabrielle Giffords

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Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, shot in the head in an assassination attempt in Tucson on January 8, has made a miraculous recovery in the ten months since that tragedy.

Having to relearn language and how to walk, and so many other things that we all take for granted, Giffords has become one of the small ten percent of people shot in the brain to recover and function.

Giffords has gone through intense therapy, and with the support of her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, and her mother, and the blessings and good will of millions of people in Arizona and elsewhere, she is now on the road to an inspirational recovery.

A special on ABC’s 20-20 with Diane Sawyer traced her steps toward recovery, and brought tears to the author’s eyes, in thankfulness and, at the same time, wonderment, at how Giffords has survived.

Giffords will have to decide by May whether she chooses to run for another term as a Congresswoman, and the nation will be praying for greater recovery efforts that will convince her to continue her stellar public career!

The CNBC Republican Presidential Debate: Perry And Cain Big Losers; Gingrich And Huntsman Big Winners!

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The CNBC Republican Presidential debate tonight on the economy really separated the “men” from the “boys”!

The big losers were Rick Perry, who could not remember the Department of Energy as one of the government departments he wants to abolish, coming across as totally inept; and Herman Cain, who gave a poor performance regarding his ethics, and kept on referring to his ridiculous 9-9-9 plan constantly!

The big winners were Newt Gingrich, who came across as what he was: thoughtful in ideas, intelligent, knowledgeable, but also very demagogic in many of his statements; and Jon Huntsman, who appeared to be stronger than he has been, and has a shot at becoming a serious candidate.

Mitt Romney did not do anything disastrous in his performance in the debate, but did not strengthen his case either, so Gingrich and Huntsman now appear to be his chief competitors.

Ron Paul was. . . . . well, Ron Paul, a curmudgeon with ideas totally impractical, but strong as usual in his assertiveness.

And Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum are not worthy of spending time discussing, as neither improved their position in the race.

So the main story of this debate is the collapse of the Perry and Cain campaigns, and the strengthening of Gingrich and Huntsman.

We shall see in a few days whether the author’s judgments show up reflected in the polls, but we have learned that polls do not necessarily relate to reality, and the audience at this debate acted just as insensitive and outrageous as at earlier debates.

The performance of the debaters does not bode well for the GOP, on top of their weak performance in yesterday’s key issues decided by the voters in Ohio, Mississippi, Maine, and Arizona.

Major Blow Against Nativism: Russell Pearce, Author Of Illegal Immigration Law In Arizona, Is Successfully Ousted In Recall Election!

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Yesterday was not only a great day for labor rights, women’s rights, and voter rights, but also for the fight against the bigotry and prejudice and nativism of those who have forced through state legislatures, including Arizona and Alabama, draconian laws on illegal immigration.

Russell Pearce, the author of the infamous Arizona law, was defeated by 53-45 percent in a recall election, in which his opponent, Jerry Lewis, a notice in politics, but also a Republican, ran against Pearce’s hateful, bigoted stand on immigration.

Lewis saw what Pearce and others are doing as wrong and politically damaging to the future of the Republican Party in Arizona and elsewhere, and thank goodness, common sense and common decency prevailed, and sent a warning to other bigots that their time of influence is fast coming to an end!

Three “Red” States In Play For 2012 Presidential Election

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With one year to go to the Presidential Election Of 2012, discussion about the Electoral College has begun.

The question has been whether Barack Obama can hold on to most of the “swing states” which he won in 2008.

But at the same time, there are actually three “red’ states of 2008 that Obama has a possibility of winning–Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona–with a total of 37 electoral votes.

Missouri (10 electoral votes) was won by John McCain by less than 4,000 votes in 2008, and it took a few days to declare McCain the winner because of the very close vote. Missouri is also the ultimate “swing state”, as it ALWAYS has gone to the winner of the Presidency since 1900, except TWICE–going to Adlai Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 and to McCain over Obama in 2008.

Georgia (16 electoral votes) went to McCain in 2008 by 196,000 votes, a margin of a little over 5 percent of the vote, but now the growing Hispanic population could be enough to give the state to Obama.

Arizona (11 electoral votes), the home of McCain, went to the senator in 2008 also by a margin of 196,000 votes, a margin of about 8.5 percent, but with the rapidly growing Hispanic population there also, and McCain not on the ballot as a “favorite son”, the possibility exists that Obama could win that state.

So if Obama were to win one or more of the three states mentioned, he could afford to lose some of the “swing states” that he won in 2008.

The Nevada GOP Presidential Debate: In The Ultimate State Of Illegal Immigration, High Umemployment, And High Foreclosures!

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It is extremely ironic that the Republican Presidential debate tonight in Las Vegas, Nevada, sponsored by CNN, is in the ultimate state of illegal immigration, high unemployment, and high foreclosures!

Here we have Herman Cain talking about electrified, barbed wire, 20 foot high fences to keep refugees from entering the country. He jokes about it, and also earlier had talked about having alligators in moats to stop illegal immigration. Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and even Mitt Romney talk tough about creating barriers, and being hardline about undocumented aliens, as if we are about to deport 11 million people who have become part of our society in a positive manner, but yet face discrimination in states such as Arizona and Alabama!

At the same time, the Republicans have no plans on job creation, and instead refuse to support legislation to keep teachers, fire fighters and police officers on the job, undermining the education and safety of American citizens. They refuse to back any programs for infrastructure or technology advancements, and to extend unemployment compensation to the most desperate! What a despicable state of affairs!

Also, Mitt Romney makes clear that there should be no slowing of foreclosures on housing, effectively throwing people out on the streets of America without any shelter, except maybe their cars, if they still own one!

Nevada is, in many ways, GROUND ZERO, on the most crucial issues of the day, and the Republicans will, hopefully, face tough grilling by Anderson Cooper and CNN on their hard hearted, “tough love”, approaches to crucial issues of survival for those less fortunate in our society!

Alabama’s Harsh Immigration Law: Worse Than Arizona And Revives Old Memories Of Alabama’s Horrid Racial History!

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Alabama has managed to take some attention off Arizona’s disgraceful immigration law, as its own legislation, put into effect on October 1, although being contested in the courts by the federal government, has already undermined its image to anyone who has a sense of justice and decency and fairness!

Reports of Hispanic immigrants fleeing, leaving their homes and possessions behind, and of children suddenly withdrawing from school , paint a picture that reminds us of Alabama’s past history of racial discrimination and violence, only possibly matched or surpassed in the South by Mississippi!

Only about 4.2 percent of Alabama’s population are undocumented immigrants, and there is no indication that there has been a problem of crime due to them being present in the state.

There are reports of pregnant women afraid to go to the hospital and of crime victims fearful of going to the police.

At the same time, harvest of agricultural crops in the state has declined dramatically, and much of the produce will rot for lack of people willing to do the work, so the economy of one of the poorest states will become worse, because of this draconian law!

The legislation makes illegal immigrants unable to enter contracts; be employed; rent housing; or gain government services. It makes these unfortunate victims unable to work, unable to gain education, unable to protect themselves from being victimized, and puts them in poverty with a sense of no ability to relate to their neighbors or any social institutions.

Fortunately, many church leaders have protested, and the federal government is actively pursuing action, but what is needed now is a court injunction to prevent further enforcement until the case comes to court! This legislation is inhumane, and a violation of human rights on a grand scale!

The “Social” Issues In The Presidential Campaign Of 2012: Are They Really Gay Marriage, Abortion, Affirmative Action, Gun Rights, School Prayer, And Immigration?

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If you listen to Republican Presidential candidates and “social” conservatives, many of whom claim to be “good Christians”, one would conclude that the social issues for the nation in 2012 are:

1. Gay Marriage
2. Abortion
3. Affirmative Action
4. Gun Rights
5. School Prayer
6. Immigration

All of these issues are extremely controversial, but what are the REAL social issues in America?

1. Homelessness of so many Americans, including those once middle class citizens.
2. Hunger, where many Americans, millions of them children, have inadequate nutrition, which will affect them long term.
3. Unemployment long term of millions, many of them over 40 and through the 50s and early 60s in age, who will never be able to gain employment at all at any time, or at the most, never make anywhere near the same income they had been earning in good times.
4. The destruction of the retirement funds and plans of millions of senior citizens, who now have to work many more years than planned just to survive.
5. The lack of health insurance and coverage of many millions of people who cannot afford to go to a doctor or hospital, or afford extremely expensive medication that would prolong life.
6. The lack of educational opportunity for those who are in poverty stricken neighborhoods, and receive an inferior education due to local property taxes being the main source of educational funding.
7. The discrimination against the children of undocumented immigrants, who discover when becoming adults, that they cannot attend college or join the military, and are threatened with deportation, along with discrimination visited against them and their parents and family members in states, such as Alabama and Arizona, because of illegal immigration laws which are being challenged in the federal courts.
8. The continuing challenge for disabled Americans, whether from birth or as a result of accidents or health problems, who, despite the Americans With Disabilities Act passed under President George H. W. Bush in 1990, still face barriers to equality of treatment.

These eight problems listed above are the REAL social challenges, but the Republican Party and so called “religious” people totally ignore these issues, instead promoting a new version of the old Social Darwinism and Laizzez Faire Economics prevalent in the Gilded Age of the late 19th century!

In other words, they want to go back to the 19th century, wipe out the 20th century, and promote good old “Christian” and “Unbridled Capitalism” values, which made America a nation ripe for reform and change, including the Progressive Era, The New Deal, and The Great Society!

This attempt to return to the old conservatism is a great evil which must be defeated by all good, really “religious” people of all faiths, who believe in equality of opportunity and fairness and consideration of others less fortunate than those of us who are lucky and successful, and do not experience the hardships of others!

The past is the past, and we need to look to the future, and realize if one American is homeless, hungry, denied health care and education, or discriminated against, then we are all worse off because of those realities!

This must be a country of WE, rather than simply ME!