South Carolina Primary

South Carolina Primary: Why Do African Americans In That State Favor Joe Biden Over Kamala Harris And Cory Booker?

One of the great mysteries of the 2020 Presidential campaign is the massive support in public opinion polls for Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary coming up in February.

Biden has a mixed record on race, considering that he opposed school busing in the 1970s, and was a cosponsor of a tough crime bill in 1994, which led to a large number of African Americans being incarcerated, some unjustly, by a very harsh piece of legislation.

It seems Biden’s support may be due more to the fact that he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama, and yet Obama has purposely not endorsed his former Vice President.

Right now, Joe Biden is not doing well in public opinion polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, so South Carolina, with its large African American population, may be his ultimate life line.

But the debate is why are not Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey doing well in South Carolina, as one would have thought?

And also, will the other African American candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, late in entering the Presidential race, perform any better than Harris or Booker?

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

The Battle For The Moderate Center Among Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg

It is becoming clear that the battle for the Moderate Center in the Democratic Party looks as if it is down to Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg.

So two old guys who would hit 80 in their second year in office or a guy who would reach age 40 in his second year of office!

The trend seems toward Pete, who is gaining nationally, and in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Joe will probably not triumph until at least South Carolina, and Bloomberg is expecting his media advertising to insure he will do well on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the women in the race, particularly Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have slipped, while Amy Klobuchar is gaining slightly, but still not a major factor at this point.

Of course, trying to predict what will happen in February and March in late November-early December is not reliable, but it is all part of the fun of watching a Presidential race!

More Presidential Contenders In 2020 Than In 2016: All Time High

America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.

This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.

The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.

This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.

Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.

If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.

Early Caucuses And Primaries Favor Different Democratic Presidential Nominees

A year from now, the early Presidential caucuses and primaries create a situation where different candidates may have an edge, and are likely to create more complications in deciding who will gain and who will lose favor.

The Iowa Caucuses might favor Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

The New Hampshire Primary might favor Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The Nevada Caucuses might favor California Senator Kamala Harris or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

The South Carolina Primary might favor either New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or California Senator Kamala Harris, with its heavily African American Democratic membership in that Southern state.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, Harris might be favored in her home state of California; and former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro or former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke might have the edge in Texas.

As the month of March wears on, with a number of Midwestern primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, Klobuchar and Brown would seem to have the edge, assuming no one has become the obvious Presidential choice after Super Tuesday, as at least seven other primaries are conducted that day.

Of course, based on past elections, it could be that the nominee would be decided simply by the large number of states conducting their primaries on March 3 (at least 9 states, including the giant ones of California and Texas).

March 3, 2020 Becomes Key Presidential Nomination Day: Could Help California Democrat To Become Presidential Nominee

More than ever, “Super Tuesday”, March 3, 2020, will be THE most crucial day in the Presidential primaries for the 2020 Presidential campaign.

As things now stand, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will continue to be the first states to hold primaries or caucuses before March–with a multitude of states holding their primaries the first Tuesday in March.

In 2016, New Hampshire and South Carolina held primaries, and Iowa and Nevada held caucuses. Eleven states held contests on the first Tuesday in March, which was March 1, with nine holding primaries and two holding caucuses.

Now, however, California has moved its primary from June to March 3, 2020, and being the biggest state in population, it will have a far greater impact than it has had in June, when the nominations of both parties had already been settled earlier.

It should make the Democratic nominee more likely to be to the left of center, rather than centrist, and the Republican nominee to be more likely to be centrist conservative than a right wing conservative.

The pressure for earlier declarations of candidacy and for more campaigning throughout 2019 will be great.

On first thoughts, it would seem that any of three California Democrats might have the edge for the Presidential nomination, and that the three–Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and presumed Governor Gavin Newsom, presently Lieutenant Governor of the state–would have a battle royale as to which would be the strongest and most likely challenger.

But also, someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders might also have the edge, as things stand now.

The Republicans would probably, assuming Donald Trump is not in the White House, have a good opportunity for a John Kasich or Jon Huntsman, the two most moderate conservative candidates in 2016 and 2012 respectively, to have an edge.

But, of course, trying to project two and a half years from now is a pure guessing game, but fun to speculate about!

The Revival And Rebirth Of Marco Rubio: Now The Only Hope Left For The Republican Party Future?

Twelve days ago, Florida Senator Marco Rubio looked like a ‘dead man”, after his disastrous debate performance, repeating a statement about Barack Obama four times.

It was embarrassing for Rubio, and even if one does not care for Rubio, anyone with any empathy had to be embarrassed for him.

Everyone thought New Jersey Governor Chris Christie would benefit from calling out Rubio, but the following week, Rubio ended up in third place, ahead of all of the Governors in the race—Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Christie, with Christie in sixth place, and out of the race.

Some would say that Christie’s collapse was fundamental justice, and one can be sure Rubio has thought that.

But now, Rubio has impressed in the most recent debate, and also, particularly in a Town Hall last night on CNN with Anderson Cooper, which had separate 40 minute discussions between Cooper and each of three candidates, rather than a debate, and with ordinary citizens asking the questions.

It is as if there has been a revival and rebirth of Marco Rubio, and on top of all this good news for him, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has endorsed him for Governor ahead of the South Carolina primary, a major boost.

Haley gained positive reaction to her reaction after the Charleston Massacre at a African American church last June, and African American Senator Tim Scott had also, earlier, endorsed Rubio.

The possibility of a serious challenge to both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz has now grown, and the “Establishment” wing of the Republican Party is likely to gather around Rubio after the South Carolina primary, and doom the chances of Jeb Bush and John Kasich, as well as Dr. Benjamin Carson.

And the idea of a Presidential ticket of Rubio and either Haley or Scott is growing—a Cuban American with an Indian American (from India) or an African American.

This would bring two “minorities” together, with Rubio being 45 and Haley reaching the same age precisely on Inauguration Day 2017, and Scott being 51—a youthful generation challenging an “old timer”,  such as Hillary Clinton, age 69 by Inauguration Day, and Bernie Sanders age 75 (the oldest first term President in American history).

This ticket, more likely Rubio and Haley, could be a difficult match for either Democratic Presidential candidate!

The Evangelical Right And The Republican Party Future In 2016

The evangelical Right has an important impact in the Republican Party, but it also is a guarantee of failure for the GOP in the Presidential Election of 2016.

The evangelical Right can affect the results in the Iowa Caucuses and the South Carolina Primary, and in much of the South and the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest, but its candidates cannot win the Presidency.

Out of all of the potential and real GOP Presidential candidates, the following would have the ability to appeal to the evangelical Right:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Retired Pediatric Surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson

Texas Senator Ted Cruz

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry

NONE of the above six will win the GOP nomination, and the majority of the nation’s people (including mainline Protestants, Catholics, and Jews) believes in just the opposite of what the Evangelical Right believes:

They support gay rights and gay marriage as acceptable.

They support gun control laws of some kind.

They support abortion rights for women, possibly with restrictions, but the basic right of women to control their own bodies and future.

They are against religious interference in government policy making.

They support immigration reform, although disagreeing on details.

They support Obama Care, possibly with changes and modifications.

They support protection of the environment from the power of powerful energy companies.

They support a higher minimum wage and other labor reforms.

They are against corporate domination of the campaign finance system.

They are concerned about right wing extremism of all kinds.

The average American is much more tolerant and open minded than the evangelical Right, which, at most, might be able to gain backing of about one third of all Americans, and also of actual voters.

So appealing to the evangelical Right is NOT a path to victory for the Presidency, or even the nomination!

Possible Plans Of Romney’s Opponents For The Republican Presidential Nomination

As a result of the Mitt Romney win in Florida, many political observers can now sense the possibility of chaos in the Republican party, as the Panhandle area of Florida, the “Old South” area of Florida, voted heavily for Newt Gingrich. This can stir Gingrich to try to win all of the Southern primaries, and have, at the least, a regional base for his Presidential campaign.

Gingrich, angry at the Romney negative campaign against him in Florida, is also now hinting that he will run a campaign to appeal to the American people, rather than the Republican Party, and that seems a strong hint that he might run as an independent in November, if he fails to win the GOP nomination.

Meanwhile, there is also the possibility of Texas Congressman Ron Paul also running in November as a libertarian candidate, and already, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who was a participant in two early debates, has dropped out and is a declared candidate for the Libertarian Party nomination.

Also, there seem to be hints that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum seems ready to stay in the race, although he has not done well in South Carolina and Florida. It could be that Santorum really hopes that Gingrich will withdraw eventually, and that he could become the conservative alternative to Romney. Or it could be that Santorum is staying in to PREVENT Gingrich from having a chance to be the nominee, and that Romney will award him with the Vice Presidential nomination!

And of course, Donald Trump has also threatened to run as an independent in November, if he is displeased with the ultimate nominee of the party.

These scenarios could work out to be false, but they certainly seem plausible at this point, and add to the interest in the Presidential campaign!

Newt Gingrich: The Demagogue, The Bully, The Narcissist, Revealed Again!

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has been shown to be a full scale demagogue, and Mitt Romney showed Gingrich’s hypocrisy again and again in last night’s debate, leading to the belief that Romney has recovered from his defeat in very conservative South Carolina, and now is more likely than ever to be the GOP nominee.

Gingrich is a demagogue on the level of Joseph McCarthy and Richard Nixon; he is a bully; he is a narcissist par excellence; he is a man without any morals, ethics or scruples, except his own aggrandizement!

Newt Gingrich is willing to victimize the poor; he is willing to behave as a racist; he is willing to lie without any shame; he is willing to stir up anti Islamic hatred; he is willing to stir up trouble in the Middle East by claiming that Palestinians do not exist; he is willing to sacrifice wives as disposables for his own ambitions; and he is willing to use incendiary language against the President of the United States, and in so doing, encourage lack of respect for the person holding the office, in a way that no other President has EVER been treated!

The people he has worked with in the Republican Party and in Congress have turned against him, and the conservative ideologists have mostly abandoned him, with the major exception of Michael Reagan, Ronald Reagan’s adopted son, and conservative talk show host.

It cannot be soon enough for Newt Gingrich to be removed from the attention of the national news media. Maybe Florida will be the place of his “Waterloo”, and if so, NOT soon enough, as he makes the word “politician” a dirty word, which it should not be!