South Carolina Primary

More Presidential Contenders In 2020 Than In 2016: All Time High

America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.

This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.

The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.

This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.

Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.

If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.

Early Caucuses And Primaries Favor Different Democratic Presidential Nominees

A year from now, the early Presidential caucuses and primaries create a situation where different candidates may have an edge, and are likely to create more complications in deciding who will gain and who will lose favor.

The Iowa Caucuses might favor Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

The New Hampshire Primary might favor Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The Nevada Caucuses might favor California Senator Kamala Harris or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

The South Carolina Primary might favor either New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or California Senator Kamala Harris, with its heavily African American Democratic membership in that Southern state.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, Harris might be favored in her home state of California; and former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro or former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke might have the edge in Texas.

As the month of March wears on, with a number of Midwestern primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, Klobuchar and Brown would seem to have the edge, assuming no one has become the obvious Presidential choice after Super Tuesday, as at least seven other primaries are conducted that day.

Of course, based on past elections, it could be that the nominee would be decided simply by the large number of states conducting their primaries on March 3 (at least 9 states, including the giant ones of California and Texas).

March 3, 2020 Becomes Key Presidential Nomination Day: Could Help California Democrat To Become Presidential Nominee

More than ever, “Super Tuesday”, March 3, 2020, will be THE most crucial day in the Presidential primaries for the 2020 Presidential campaign.

As things now stand, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will continue to be the first states to hold primaries or caucuses before March–with a multitude of states holding their primaries the first Tuesday in March.

In 2016, New Hampshire and South Carolina held primaries, and Iowa and Nevada held caucuses. Eleven states held contests on the first Tuesday in March, which was March 1, with nine holding primaries and two holding caucuses.

Now, however, California has moved its primary from June to March 3, 2020, and being the biggest state in population, it will have a far greater impact than it has had in June, when the nominations of both parties had already been settled earlier.

It should make the Democratic nominee more likely to be to the left of center, rather than centrist, and the Republican nominee to be more likely to be centrist conservative than a right wing conservative.

The pressure for earlier declarations of candidacy and for more campaigning throughout 2019 will be great.

On first thoughts, it would seem that any of three California Democrats might have the edge for the Presidential nomination, and that the three–Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and presumed Governor Gavin Newsom, presently Lieutenant Governor of the state–would have a battle royale as to which would be the strongest and most likely challenger.

But also, someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders might also have the edge, as things stand now.

The Republicans would probably, assuming Donald Trump is not in the White House, have a good opportunity for a John Kasich or Jon Huntsman, the two most moderate conservative candidates in 2016 and 2012 respectively, to have an edge.

But, of course, trying to project two and a half years from now is a pure guessing game, but fun to speculate about!

The Revival And Rebirth Of Marco Rubio: Now The Only Hope Left For The Republican Party Future?

Twelve days ago, Florida Senator Marco Rubio looked like a ‘dead man”, after his disastrous debate performance, repeating a statement about Barack Obama four times.

It was embarrassing for Rubio, and even if one does not care for Rubio, anyone with any empathy had to be embarrassed for him.

Everyone thought New Jersey Governor Chris Christie would benefit from calling out Rubio, but the following week, Rubio ended up in third place, ahead of all of the Governors in the race—Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Christie, with Christie in sixth place, and out of the race.

Some would say that Christie’s collapse was fundamental justice, and one can be sure Rubio has thought that.

But now, Rubio has impressed in the most recent debate, and also, particularly in a Town Hall last night on CNN with Anderson Cooper, which had separate 40 minute discussions between Cooper and each of three candidates, rather than a debate, and with ordinary citizens asking the questions.

It is as if there has been a revival and rebirth of Marco Rubio, and on top of all this good news for him, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has endorsed him for Governor ahead of the South Carolina primary, a major boost.

Haley gained positive reaction to her reaction after the Charleston Massacre at a African American church last June, and African American Senator Tim Scott had also, earlier, endorsed Rubio.

The possibility of a serious challenge to both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz has now grown, and the “Establishment” wing of the Republican Party is likely to gather around Rubio after the South Carolina primary, and doom the chances of Jeb Bush and John Kasich, as well as Dr. Benjamin Carson.

And the idea of a Presidential ticket of Rubio and either Haley or Scott is growing—a Cuban American with an Indian American (from India) or an African American.

This would bring two “minorities” together, with Rubio being 45 and Haley reaching the same age precisely on Inauguration Day 2017, and Scott being 51—a youthful generation challenging an “old timer”,  such as Hillary Clinton, age 69 by Inauguration Day, and Bernie Sanders age 75 (the oldest first term President in American history).

This ticket, more likely Rubio and Haley, could be a difficult match for either Democratic Presidential candidate!

The Evangelical Right And The Republican Party Future In 2016

The evangelical Right has an important impact in the Republican Party, but it also is a guarantee of failure for the GOP in the Presidential Election of 2016.

The evangelical Right can affect the results in the Iowa Caucuses and the South Carolina Primary, and in much of the South and the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest, but its candidates cannot win the Presidency.

Out of all of the potential and real GOP Presidential candidates, the following would have the ability to appeal to the evangelical Right:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Retired Pediatric Surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson

Texas Senator Ted Cruz

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry

NONE of the above six will win the GOP nomination, and the majority of the nation’s people (including mainline Protestants, Catholics, and Jews) believes in just the opposite of what the Evangelical Right believes:

They support gay rights and gay marriage as acceptable.

They support gun control laws of some kind.

They support abortion rights for women, possibly with restrictions, but the basic right of women to control their own bodies and future.

They are against religious interference in government policy making.

They support immigration reform, although disagreeing on details.

They support Obama Care, possibly with changes and modifications.

They support protection of the environment from the power of powerful energy companies.

They support a higher minimum wage and other labor reforms.

They are against corporate domination of the campaign finance system.

They are concerned about right wing extremism of all kinds.

The average American is much more tolerant and open minded than the evangelical Right, which, at most, might be able to gain backing of about one third of all Americans, and also of actual voters.

So appealing to the evangelical Right is NOT a path to victory for the Presidency, or even the nomination!

Possible Plans Of Romney’s Opponents For The Republican Presidential Nomination

As a result of the Mitt Romney win in Florida, many political observers can now sense the possibility of chaos in the Republican party, as the Panhandle area of Florida, the “Old South” area of Florida, voted heavily for Newt Gingrich. This can stir Gingrich to try to win all of the Southern primaries, and have, at the least, a regional base for his Presidential campaign.

Gingrich, angry at the Romney negative campaign against him in Florida, is also now hinting that he will run a campaign to appeal to the American people, rather than the Republican Party, and that seems a strong hint that he might run as an independent in November, if he fails to win the GOP nomination.

Meanwhile, there is also the possibility of Texas Congressman Ron Paul also running in November as a libertarian candidate, and already, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who was a participant in two early debates, has dropped out and is a declared candidate for the Libertarian Party nomination.

Also, there seem to be hints that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum seems ready to stay in the race, although he has not done well in South Carolina and Florida. It could be that Santorum really hopes that Gingrich will withdraw eventually, and that he could become the conservative alternative to Romney. Or it could be that Santorum is staying in to PREVENT Gingrich from having a chance to be the nominee, and that Romney will award him with the Vice Presidential nomination!

And of course, Donald Trump has also threatened to run as an independent in November, if he is displeased with the ultimate nominee of the party.

These scenarios could work out to be false, but they certainly seem plausible at this point, and add to the interest in the Presidential campaign!

Newt Gingrich: The Demagogue, The Bully, The Narcissist, Revealed Again!

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has been shown to be a full scale demagogue, and Mitt Romney showed Gingrich’s hypocrisy again and again in last night’s debate, leading to the belief that Romney has recovered from his defeat in very conservative South Carolina, and now is more likely than ever to be the GOP nominee.

Gingrich is a demagogue on the level of Joseph McCarthy and Richard Nixon; he is a bully; he is a narcissist par excellence; he is a man without any morals, ethics or scruples, except his own aggrandizement!

Newt Gingrich is willing to victimize the poor; he is willing to behave as a racist; he is willing to lie without any shame; he is willing to stir up anti Islamic hatred; he is willing to stir up trouble in the Middle East by claiming that Palestinians do not exist; he is willing to sacrifice wives as disposables for his own ambitions; and he is willing to use incendiary language against the President of the United States, and in so doing, encourage lack of respect for the person holding the office, in a way that no other President has EVER been treated!

The people he has worked with in the Republican Party and in Congress have turned against him, and the conservative ideologists have mostly abandoned him, with the major exception of Michael Reagan, Ronald Reagan’s adopted son, and conservative talk show host.

It cannot be soon enough for Newt Gingrich to be removed from the attention of the national news media. Maybe Florida will be the place of his “Waterloo”, and if so, NOT soon enough, as he makes the word “politician” a dirty word, which it should not be!

Reverberations Of The Citizens United Supreme Court Case: Sheldon Adelson, The Koch Brothers, And The Destruction Of American Democracy!

Two years ago this week, the Supreme Court, in a 5-4 vote, decided that corporations were “people” and had a right to “freedom of speech”, meaning unlimited ability of groups and individuals to spend money and form Super Political Action Committees.

As a result, the Koch Brothers (Charles and David) spent enough money in contributing to state and congressional races to be able to bring about a Republican House of Representatives and many Republican state governments in 2010, leading to the turmoil of the Tea Party Movement in the past year.

Now Sheldon Adelson, an extremely wealthy casino owner in Las Vegas, along with his wife, have contributed $10 million to the Newt Gingrich candidacy, so that he can compete against Mitt Romney, and it has led to the Gingrich success in South Carolina.

Our political campaigns are being “bought” by wealthy people, and distorting the concept of American democracy, making our political system a mockery!

Action must be taken as soon as possible to overcome this horrible Supreme Court decision, but even if it occurs, this year’s election has already been besmirched by the corruption of the extremely wealthy who are doing everything they can to make the government their private possession!

The Growing Hysteria Over Newt Gingrich’s Candidacy For President

As a result of Newt Gingrich’s smashing victory in South Carolina, the panic and hysteria within conservative ranks and in the Republican Party establishment has grown by leaps and bounds. Critics suggest that Newt as the potential nominee, with an almost 60 percent unfavorable rating in national public opinion polls, about the same as when he was Speaker of the House fifteen years ago, and was on his way out as a result of a conservative Republican move against him in the House of Representatives, will lead to a massive defeat and bring down Republicans in both houses of Congress.

The list is long who is against Gingrich, with an incomplete list following in no special order.

George H. W. Bush, former President of the United States
Tom Ridge, former Secretary of Homeland Security and Pennsylvania Governor
Chris Christie, New Jersey Governor
Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Senator
Nikki Haley, South Carolina Governor
Tim Pawlenty, former Minnesota Governor
Haley Barbour, former Mississippi Governor and Republican National Chairman
Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China
Mark Kirk, Illinois Senator
John McCain, Arizona Senator
Tom Coburn, Oklahoma Senator
Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and MSNBC Talk Show Host
Susan Molinari, former New York Congresswoman
Rush Limbaugh, Conservative Radio Talk Show Host
Ann Coulter, Conservative Activists
Charles Krauthammer, Conservative Activist and Fox News Channel Contributor
Bill Kristol, Publisher of Weekly Standard and Fox News Contributor
David Brooks, NY Times Journalist
Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal Journalist and Reagan Speechwriter
George Will, Conservative Journalist and ABC News Contributor
Peter King, New York Congressman
Glenn Beck, Conservative Radio Talk Show Host
Brit Hume, Fox News Channel Contributor
Jonah Goldberg, Conservative Author and Activist
Roy Blunt, Missouri Senator
Scott Brown, Massachusetts Senator
Orrin Hatch, Utah Senator
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska Senator
Rob Portman, Ohio Senator
John Thune, South Dakota Senator
Bob McDonnell, Virginia Governor
Dan Quayle, former Vice President
Bob Dole, former Kansas Senator and Presidential Nominee in 1996
Norm Coleman, former Minnesota Senator
John Danforth, former Missouri Senator
Elizabeth Dole, former North Carolina Senator and Cabinet Member
Judd Gregg, former New Hampshire Senator
John Sununu, former White House Chief of Staff and New Hampshire Governor
Gordon Smith, former Oregon Senator
Jim Talent, former Missouri Senator
John Sununu, Jr, former New Hampshire Senator
David Frum, conservative journalist and former aide to George W. Bush
George Voinovich, former Ohio Senator
Dennis Hastert, former Speaker of the House of Representatives
Rick Lazio, former New York Congressman
James Baker, former Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff
Robert Bork, former Reagan Supreme Court nominee
John Bolton, former United Nations Ambassador

This list of critics, all supporters of Mitt Romney, fear a calamity in the making, but the battle to overcome Gingrich seems likely to be a long, and possibly, unsuccessful one.

Some predict that a Gingrich candidacy will be similar to Barry Goldwater in 1964, causing a split that will not easily be healed in the short term future.

Newt Gingrich Victory In South Carolina Portends Most Ideological Election Since 1964!

The massive Newt Gingrich victory in South Carolina today portends the most ideological election in America since 1964.

Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona overcame the moderate and centrist elements of the GOP in 1964, but led the party to total disaster in the fall against President Lyndon B. Johnson, winning only six states, five in the South and Arizona.

As much as Goldwater was divisive, in comparison to Newt Gingrich, the Arizona Senator seems in retrospect like a charm!

Goldwater was sincere in his beliefs, while Gingrich is a total opportunist, power hungry, and willing to create a “civil war” atmosphere in his mad dash to take power, and it is clear that he is a dangerous man like none we have seen in the past.

Only George Wallace, the former Alabama Governor who ran on a third party line in 1968, was equally dangerous, but fortunately, he was not on a major party line, and could only cause problems for the two major candidates.

Newt Gingrich, ironically censured by the House when he was Speaker of the House fifteen years ago on this date for ethical violations and fined $300,000, now has been resurrected by South Carolina evangelical voters and Tea Party activists.

The future of the nation is at stake in what looks more than ever like a real possibility of Newt Gingrich being the opponent of Barack Obama this November. This requires efforts, unsurpassed in the past, by those who do not wish such a destructive personality to sit in the Oval Office next January 20!