Richard Nixon

The 116th Congress, 2019-2020, In Detail: Hopefully, The First Step To A Democratic Senate and Democratic President Elected In 2020

The 116th Congress, opening on January 3, 2019, will have exactly 100 new members, an all time high turnover.

It will contain 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans in the House of Representatives, a gain of 40 seats by the Democrats, the most massive turnover since the Midterm Elections of 1974, after Richard Nixon had resigned that August due to the Watergate Scandal.

The Senate will be 53 Republicans to 45 Democrats and 2 Independents (Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont), an increase of two seats for the Republicans.

It is much more “Blue” or Democratic and younger and more diverse in every way, a true “Blue Wave”.

The average age of the newcomers is age 49.

63 of the new members are Democrats, and 37 are Republicans, with the Democrats having 60 new House members and 3 Senators, while the Republicans have 31 new House members and 6 Senators.

So there are 91 new House members and 9 new Senators, making a turnover of about 20 percent of the House and 9 percent of the Senate in membership.

40 of the new 100 members of Congress are women, 36 in the House and 4 in the Senate.

60 of the new members are men, 55 in the House and 5 in the Senate.

24 of the new House members are Hispanic, Native American and people of color, but all of the newly elected Senators are white.

History Makers include: Marsha Blackburn (R) of Tennessee, the first woman elected to Congress from her state; two Native American women elected to the House from Kansas and New Mexico; the Kansas Congresswoman being the first openly gay person elected to Congress from Kansas; first two Latina women elected to Congress from Texas; first Muslim women elected to Congress from Michigan and Minnesota; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York the youngest elected Congresswoman ever in Congress; the first black Congresswoman ever elected from Massachusetts and Connecticut; and Kyrsten Sinema the first woman elected to the Senate from Arizona, and also first openly bisexual member of the Senate.

We also have older new members in their 70s, Mitt Romney in the Senate at 71, and Donna Shalala of Florida in the House at 77.

The new Congressional group is highly educated, with 70 percent having gone to graduate school; one third having law degrees; 12 having MBAs; seven members having at least two graduate degrees; and Kyrsten Sinema having four graduate degrees.

19 members have served in the military, including 6 in the Army, 11 in the Navy, and 2 in the Air Force.

4 of the newcomers are professional athletes in their past, including 2 NFL football players, 1 professional hockey player, and 1 mixed martial arts fighter.

Also, there are 3 doctors, one dentist, 1 nurse, and 5 educators in the group of 100 new members of Congress.

The average age of members of Congress remains about the same as it has been, 58.5 years.

The total number of women in Congress are 124, an all time high, including 100 in the House and 24 in the Senate.

Finally, 21 percent of the Congress is Hispanic, Native American, and people of color.

Hopefully, the “Blue Wave” of 2018 will lead to a Democratic Senate and Democratic President in the Presidential Election of 2020.

Presidents In Conflict With The Judiciary Are Nothing New Historically, But Trump Could Be The Biggest Threat Yet To Our Constitutional System

The conflict of President Donald Trump with the judiciary is not the first time there has been a challenge from a President to the judicial branch.

Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson had regular conflict with Chief Justice John Marshall and the federal courts in the first third of the 19th century.

Abraham Lincoln had vehement disagreements with Chief Justice Roger Taney in the era of the Civil War.

Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson both found the Supreme Court as standing in the way of progressive reform in the early 20th century.

Franklin D. Roosevelt was so frustrated by a conservative Supreme Court negating important legislation of the New Deal in the mid 1930s, that he proposed the idea of adding six new Justices to the Court in 1937. This came to be known as the “Court Packing” plan, and was soundly defeated, including by members of his own Democratic Party.

Richard Nixon had issues with the rulings of the Earl Warren Court before he was President, and the continued Warren influence on the Court under his successor, Warren Burger. And, Nixon was stopped dead in his tracks in US. V. Nixon in 1974, forcing him to hand over the Watergate Tapes to the Special Prosecutor, Leon Jaworski, leading him to resign the Presidency in August 1974.

Barack Obama was critical of the John Roberts Court on its conservative decisions early on in his Presidency in 2010.

And now, Donald Trump has unleashed what many consider the strongest challenge to the whole federal judiciary, alarming many constitutional experts as far more dangerous and threatening to the checks and balances of the Constitution and the separation of powers.

It is clear that Trump has declared war on the judiciary, but it could be that the Roberts Court will smack back at him when cases regarding his abuse of power make it to the Court, so Trump may be “hoist by hid own petard”, and regret the attacks he has made on the whole court system.

Donald Trump Rejects Human Rights As A Principle Of American Foreign Policy, Even Theoretically, After Saudi Torture And Murder Of Jamal Khashoggi

President Donald Trump has just destroyed all sense of morality, ethics, and principle, by rejecting human rights as a principle of American foreign policy, even theoretically.

Certainly, other Presidents have often ignored human rights as a principle, including Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan above all, but none as openly as Donald Trump, who has just decided to ignore intelligence information that concludes that Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, ordered the assassination and torture of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi national living in the United States and working as a journalist for the Washington Post.

Instead, Trump is giving bin Salman a pass, refusing the concept of some kind of punishment to be meted out on Saudi Arabia for this horrendous murder and dismemberment.

No one is saying that the US should break off relations with the Saudi government, but a nation can use other strategies and tactics to indicate outrage at such a violation of human rights.

But instead, Trump, along with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Adviser John Bolton, are choosing to show a lack of concern or principle about the basic decency of promoting basic human rights.

It is just another sign that Trump is cozying up to authoritarian dictators, all for his own economic betterment. It has led to bitter denunciation by many public figures in government, including many Republicans, as well as Democrats.

This author believes that the United States will one day realize the danger of what has been done, that Mohammed bin Salman will turn out as King of Saudi Arabia in the future, as the most dangerous foreign leader long term, probably more than Kim Jong of North Korea, who like bin Salman, is in his early 30s, and both will be a nightmare long term in the world, way beyond the leaders of Russia and China, who are twice their age.

A Massive “Blue Wave” Despite A Good Economy, Low Unemployment, And Actions To Promote Voter Suppression

The biggest “Blue Wave” since the 1974 midterms, after Richard Nixon resigned due to the Watergate Scandal, has occurred this week.

It is also the greatest participation in a midterm election in 52 years, since 1966, when there was a lot of anger at Lyndon B. Johnson’s prosecution of the Vietnam War.

It is also an election in which the states that decided that Donald Trump would win the Electoral College–Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin–swung over to the Democrats.

This was an election in which the gender gap was the greatest we have ever seen, and more young people voted than at any time since the 26th Amendment gave 18 year olds the right to vote.

This election also saw suburbia swing to the Democratic Party en masse, and that is a major development long term.

We also saw many Republican Congressmen in California, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, and in the Midwest, lose their seats.

We witnessed Kansas reject the right wing views of past Governor Sam Brownback, and defeat Kris Kobach, a crooked candidate who worked to suppress voting rights all over the nation in the past few years.

All this occurred despite a good economy, low unemployment, and actions to promote voter suppression.

Donald Trump had said that voters should consider as if he was on the ballot, when he went out and campaigned all over the nation.

And the nation reacted with a sound rejection of Trump, with Democrats winning 7 percent more of the vote than Republicans, just as Hillary Clinton won over Donald Trump in popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.

And let us not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote for President six of the last seven national elections, all but 2004, starting in 1992 and through 2016!

Matthew Whitaker Becoming Acting Attorney General Creates A Constitutional Crisis Over Robert Mueller Investigation

The decision of President Donald Trump to fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and temporarily replace him with Matthew Whitaker, who has clearly stated his belief in 2017 that there should not be a continuation of the Robert Mueller investigation into Russian Collusion, is an alarm bell in the night.

It is now clear that Trump has decided to take action on Mueller before he can issue a report, and before the Democrats take over the House of Representatives, and start investigations and issue subpoenas to the Trump Administration.

Trump’s bizarre performance in his nearly hour and a half press conference yesterday makes one worry as to what will happen next, as Trump is acting totally bipolar, whether he is or not.

The rumor that Donald Trump, Jr. may soon be indicted by Robert Mueller is probably the reason behind the suddenly rash action by Trump to fire Sessions.

But ordinarily, the Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, who has been overseeing the Mueller investigation, and who hired Robert Mueller in the first place, should be the Acting Attorney General.

So many observers think we are on the verge of repeating the “Saturday Night Massacre” of Richard Nixon in October 1973, which led to impeachment by the House Judiciary Committee, the decision of the Supreme Court in US V. Nixon, and Nixon’s resignation in August 1974.

The Midterm Elections Of 2018 Come Down To A Referendum On Donald Trump

It is now certain that the Midterm Elections of 2018 are a referendum on Donald Trump, in a way unseen since at least when Richard Nixon went out and campaigned in the midterm 1970 elections.

Donald Trump is becoming more unstable and reckless by the day, and by his nonstop campaigning in states with Democrats in the Senate, but support for Donald Trump in 2016, the results will be seen as either a repudiation or an endorsement of the President.

Trump is behaving in a more erratic manner than ever before, including talk about ending birthright citizenship by executive order, even though even conservatives make it clear that cannot be accomplished other than by a constitutional amendment.

Trump is also claiming he is sending thousands of soldiers to the Mexico border, more than we have seen since Woodrow Wilson was President a century ago, during the Mexican Revolution, although it seems the Pentagon has no such plans actually to do so.

Trump is making Central American refugees, mostly women and children, seem like a terrorist, drug dealing, criminal mob, and now has even stated that if any refugees show any sign of throwing rocks at soldiers, then he will order the troops to use firearms against these people.

This would remind us of what happened at Kent State University in 1970, when National Guardsmen opened up fire with live ammunition against a demonstration of students against the invasion of Cambodia, and killed four and wounded nine.

Trump is lying to scare voters, instill fear, and make people hate migrants (poor women and their children) who are simply escaping bloodshed, violence, and gangs trying to recruit their children in nations that have fallen into disarray by American policy over the last few decades.

If this awful scenario were ever to occur, it would be grounds for nationwide marches and demonstrations, as to shoot and kill unarmed people who just have rocks, would be a war crime.

This is yet another reason why it is urgent that Donald Trump be repudiated next Tuesday, and that the Republicans be defeated nationwide, as otherwise, the horrors of a declaration of martial law, and the establishment of a Fascist dictatorship will be on us, and our democracy will be destroyed.

Future generations will look at such an event as the most horrific possible moment in US history, and it is possible to imagine a civil war breaking out, which our rivals in the world would love to see happen, as it would destroy the world leadership of the United States in a way that would not be retrievable for decades.

Midterm Election History In First Presidential Midterms Since 1946, And Likelihood Of Results Of Midterm Elections In 2018

With the Midterm Elections of 2018 upon us in less than two weeks, it is time to analyze midterm election results in the first such elections after a new President has come to office, starting with Harry Truman in 1946 and all the way through to Barack Obama in 2010.

We are discussing 12 Presidents and how they were factors in the midterm elections which followed their entering the Presidency.

Six of the 12 Presidents entered that first midterm election with their popularity in public opinion polls under 50 percent—with the order of lack of popularity being lowest to highest the following—Truman, Reagan, Lyndon B. Johnson, Obama, Clinton, and Carter. Notice this list is all Democrats except for Reagan.

The other six Presidents were above 50 percent popularity at the time of the first midterm elections–from the highest to the lowest being George W. Bush, Kennedy, Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush, Nixon, Ford. Notice this list is all Republicans except for Kennedy.

The record shows that only George W. Bush and Kennedy saw the best results, with Bush seeing a gain of 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat, in the year after September 11, and Kennedy losing 4 House seats but gaining 2 Senate seats in the weeks after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

And George H. W. Bush, Nixon, and Eisenhower midterms showed respectively 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost; 12 House Seats lost and 1 Senate seat gained; and 18 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost.

Only Ford, three months after taking over the Presidency, and with still a high public opinion rating of 54 percent, but the Nixon Watergate Scandal still reverberating with Ford’s pardon of Nixon, do we see a major loss of 48 House seats and 4 Senate seats lost.

Meanwhile, those six Presidents with a lower than 50 percent public opinion poll rating at the first midterm of their Presidency saw a much greater loss, with Carter having the smallest loss, 15 House seats and 3 Senate seats lost with a 49 percent rating.

Reagan, with a 42 percent rating, lowest except for Truman, saw a loss of 26 House seats but one Senate seat gained.

The other four Presidents—Johnson, Clinton, Truman, Obama—suffered far worse losses—with Johnson losing 48 House seats and losing 4 Senate seats, the same as Ford, who had ten points higher public opinion rating of 54 percent to LBJ’s 44 percent.

Clinton, Truman, and Obama, all Democrats,lost massively in seats in both houses of Congress—Clinton losing 54 House seats and losing 8 Senate seats; Truman losing 55 House seats and losing 12 Senate seats; and Obama losing 63 House seats and losing 6 Senate seats.

What all this leads to is the strong belief that Donald Trump, with 47 percent approval rating most recently, will see a major loss of House seats for sure, and the guess at this time, after much reflection, is that it will be between 40-45 seats. In the Senate, with the great Republican advantage in only having 9 seats open for election, and the Senate having a 51-49 Republican margin, the odds of the Democrats holding on to their seats and gaining two or more of the nine contested Republican seats would seem to lead likely to a 50-50 tie, meaning a one seat Democratic gain, but still a Republican controlled Senate at 50-50, whereby Vice President Mike Pence will still organize the Senate for the next two years. This so unless there is a move by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who voted against Brett Kavanaugh, and has been attacked by her state’s Republican party leadership, to switch to Independent or Democratic support, and giving the Senate to the Democrats.

The Governorships generally follow Congressional results, and are extremely important for reapportionment of state legislative districts and US House districts after the Census 2020 population figures are tabulated, so having more Governors of one party over the other are crucial. At this point, it would seem likely that the Democrats will gain from 16 present Governorships by 10-11, and have 26-27 Chief Executives of states.

So overall, a Democratic gain to a majority of House seats to about 235-240 and 26-27 Governorships, but likely a tied 50-50 Senate, putting the results worse for Trump than for Reagan in the House and Senate, but not as bad as for Ford among Republican Presidents.

Hysteria, Hyperbole, And Advocacy Of Violence: Donald Trump Campaign Against Democrats Making Them Appear “UnAmerican”

“Angry, ruthless, unhinged mob”—is the Donald Trump campaign pitch against the Democrats, as the 2018 Midterm election campaign comes down to its last two weeks.

Promoting hysteria, hyperbole, and advocacy of violence are the tactics, something never utilized before in the entirety of American history.

Other Presidents campaigned in midterm elections in harsh terms, such as Andrew Johnson in 1866, and Richard Nixon in 1970, but never on the scale or recklessness of Donald Trump.

A President such as Harry Truman, in his reelection campaign in 1948, gave the Republican opposition “hell”, but never on a level anything near what Donald Trump has done.

He has aroused his crowds with fear, trepidation, and encouraged violence as in Montana, all signs of Fascist authoritarianism.

He has made these midterm elections all about him, so he must be answered by the voters or else doom is ahead!

This election in 16 days MUST repudiate Trumpism, or else the Republic is in dire danger, clear and simple!

This is not the time or place to be lazy or disinterested about politics, as we are in greater danger than we have ever been, worse than the Great Depression, World War II, or September 11!

In those moments of crisis, we had Franklin D. Roosevelt and George W. Bush, a strange pairing it might seem, but both committed to the protection of the nation, as compared to the clear aggrandizement of power and egotism of Donald Trump, who does not respect the Constitution.

The Long Term Crisis Of Supreme Court Legitimacy Could Tear This Nation Apart Over Next Few Decades

The US Supreme Court is entering a period which could tear this nation apart over the next few decades.

Here we are in the 21st century, and yet, the Supreme Court could be taking us back to the late 19th century Gilded Age in its constitutional decisions. Now there is a solid five member conservative majority, with the confirmation and swearing in of Brett Kavanaugh, the most contentious nominee with the closest vote in the Senate since Stanley Matthews’ appointment by President James A. Garfield in 1881.

Matthews served nearly eight years on the Supreme Court, having been nominated by President Rutherford B. Hayes, but seen at the time as too much of a “crony” of the President, so his nomination was withdrawn, but resubmitted by President James A. Garfield in 1881, and confirmed by the closest margin in history, 24-23, but with Kavanaugh the second lowest ever vote 50-48. This was the only Supreme Court appointment of Garfield, who had only served four months, when he was shot and mortally wounded by an assassin, and died in September 1881.

The concern about fairness on the part of Brett Kavanaugh however was not the same as Stanley Matthews, who was the majority opinion author in a case involving discrimination against Chinese laundries and their owners in San Francisco, with the case being Yick Wo V. Hopkins, enforcing the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. This was a step forward at a difficult time, in the year 1886, although the government had passed into law the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882.

We could only hope for the kind of open mindedness on the part of Brett Kavanaugh, as occurred with Stanley Matthews’ authorship of this case, which gives him stature in Supreme Court history.

We have had Republican appointments in the past, who turned out to be surprises, including:

Earl Warren and William Brennan, appointed by Dwight D. Eisenhower

Harry Blackmun, appointed by Richard Nixon

John Paul Stevens, appointed by Gerald Ford

Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy, appointed by Ronald Reagan

David Souter, appointed by George H. W. Bush

It would be a miracle at this point if Brett Kavanaugh were to travel the same road.

In a nation becoming more minority over the next decades, and with young people and women and college educated people veering to the left, while the Supreme Court veers dramatically to the Far Right, the question is whether civil disorder is not in the making, creating a crisis atmosphere in the future decades, exactly what America’s enemies are hoping for.

One Term Presidents Who Lose Reelection Reassessed

The historical image of One Term Presidents is that it is the worst thing imaginable to lose reelection, and that their historical image is damaged.

Actually, though, it could be argued that a one term Presidency often is a blessing in disguise in the long run.

Let’s examine what happened to the lives of Presidents defeated for a second term.

John Adams lost reelection to Thomas Jefferson in 1800, but went on to live another 25 years, see his son John Quincy Adams be elected and inaugurated President, and die at the age of 90 years and seven months, the all time record until the 21st century, when four other Presidents surpassed him in age.

John Quincy Adams lost reelection to Andrew Jackson in 1828, but went on to live another 19 years, and be elected to nine terms as a Congressman from Massachusetts, engaged in the fight against slavery as the only President elected by popular vote to an elected office after being President.

Martin Van Buren lost reelection to William Henry Harrison in 1840, but went on to live another 21 years, and be the Presidential nominee of the Free Soil Party in 1848, winning about 10 percent of the national popular vote, the first such third party to have an impact on a national election.

Grover Cleveland lost reelection to Benjamin Harrison in 1888, but came back to the White House by election in 1892, and later served on the Princeton University Board of Trustees after his retirement.

William Howard Taft lost reelection to Woodrow Wilson in 1912, but went on to become the only President also to serve as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from 1921-1930.

Herbert Hoover lost reelection to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, but went on to the longest retirement of more than 31 years, only surpassed by Jimmy Carter in 2012, and Hoover having growing respect for his post Presidential activities, and dying at the age of 90 in 1964, only five months less lifespan than John Adams, and the second President to reach that age.

Gerald Ford lost election to Jimmy Carter in 1976, after succeeding Richard Nixon under the 25th Amendment, but went on to growing recognition and respect in his nearly 30 years after his Presidency, setting the record for longevity until 2018, dying at the age of 93 and five months.

Jimmy Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan in 1980, but went on to become the most outstanding former President in his activities and commitments to public service, and has had the longest retirement of any President, nearly 38 years, and has just reached the age of 94, being 111 days younger than George H. W. Bush.

George H. W. Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton in 1992, but went on to see his son, George W. Bush be inaugurated and serve two terms in the Presidency, and growing respect as he set the all time record of age 94 in June 2018.