Presidential Elections

Presidential Election Day Should Be A National Holiday To Encourage More Voting!

America’s Presidential elections are a very important time, occurring once every four years.

It is important enough that there is a need to have the once in four years event become a national holiday, so that as many citizens as possible may participate, while still permitting early voting as well!

Since it is only one day in four years, its economic effect would be minimal, and those who would have to work on that day would be granted time off, either to be able to vote during early election vote days, or three hours off on the actual Election Day, so that everyone would have time to vote.

This would be a major step toward raising the percentage of American voting from what has been normally only a little more than 50 percent, although the percentage reached closer to 60 percent the last two national elections.

As the leader of the free world, the United States should have a participation rate matching that of Western Europe and Japan, more like 75-85 percent!

New Series On C-Span On Presidential Contenders (Losers) Who Made A Difference Historically, Starting Friday at 8 PM!

An important new series on C-Span begins this Friday night, September 9, at 8 PM, and continues for a total of 14 Fridays through December 9!

This is worthwhile for anyone who reads this blog to note, and to watch, as it adds a great deal to our history. The whole concept of this series excites me, and hopefully, all others who love American History and Politics!

The series will consist of 90 minute episodes, centered at important historic sites of 14 men who ran for President and lost, all part of this series.

The 14 Presidential losers being covered in the series include:

Henry Clay
James G. Blaine
William Jennings Bryan
Eugene Debs
Charles Evans Hughes
Al Smith
Wendell Willkie
Thomas E. Dewey
Adlai Stevenson
Barry Goldwater
Hubert Humphrey
George Wallace
George McGovern
Ross Perot

As a side commentary, this series could be substantially longer than 14 episodes, as 12 other Presidential losers that could be seen as significant would include:

Stephen Douglas
Samuel Tilden
Robert La Follette, Sr.
Strom Thurmond
Henry A Wallace
John Anderson
Walter Mondale
Michael Dukakis
Bob Dole
Al Gore
John Kerry
John McCain

I highly recommend all who read this blog to tune in to this wonderful series, and in the process, gain new insights into American History!

Historian Allan J. Lichtman And Presidential Election Predictability

Professor Allan J. Lichtman of American University in Washington, DC has published over many years his theories about predicting Presidential elections.

Originally publishing THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE in 1984, Lichtman has continued to update his predictions and his theory.

Lichtman suggests that there are 13 factors involved in a Presidential election, and that IF a candidate is positively rated on EIGHT or more of the 13 factors, he wins the election.

Based on this, Lichtman now predicts that Barack Obama will win the 2012 election, since he has NINE of the 13 factors in his favor!

The positive factors include:

1. No serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
2. The President in office is running for reelection.
3. There is no significant third party challenge.
4. The party in power has brought about major policy changes.
5. There is no major social unrest during the term.
6. There is no major scandal during the term.
7. There are no major foreign policy failures during the term.
8. There are major successes in foreign and military policy.
9. The candidate of the incumbent party is charismatic and well liked personally.

The four factors against Obama include:

1. The party in power has lost seats in the midterm election in the House of Representatives as compared to the number of seats in the previous midterm election.
2. The economy is in poor shape.
3. The long term economy outlook is not good.
4. The challenging candidate may be charismatic.

Lichtman claims this series of factors has always worked, going back to the beginning of our popular vote elections for President in 1824.

There is much debate about the validity of this series of factors judging who will win Presidential elections, both past and the future.

Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES contests the validity of much of what Lichtman says.

If nothing else, however, the Lichtman formula makes for interesting discussion and debate, and it will be interesting to see if his prediction of an Obama victory holds up.

For that, we will have to wait 14 months!

Time For Reality Check On Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment And Third Party Potential For Success In Presidential Elections

Unfortunately, many Americans, probably a vast majority, live with a false set of facts about American government, as it stands under the Constitution. There is a major need for a reality check!

Many people, including Republicans in Congress, seem to think that a balanced budget amendment will solve our economic problems, when there is absolutely no chance of that occurring! Any constitutional amendment required a two thirds vote of the House of Representatives, followed by a two thirds vote of the US Senate, and then a majority vote in each of the two houses in three fourths or 38 of the 50 states, with the only exception being Nebraska, which only has a one house or unicameral legislature.

We are not ever going to bring about 290 out of 435 votes in the House of Representatives and 67 out of 100 votes in the Senate for such an amendment! Only 36 proposed amendments have EVER achieved this two thirds vote, and the number of failed amendments is in the hundreds over our history!

But notice, even with 36 amendments making it through the Congress, we have only 27 amendments, telling us that NINE amendments failed to gain a three fourths support of state legislatures. Another way to put it is that IF there is a one vote majority in one of the two houses of the state legislatures against an amendment in just THIRTEEN states at a minimum, the amendment fails to be added to the Constitution.

There is no realistic possibility of a balanced budget amendment EVER making it into the Constitution, no matter what politicians say! And were it to happen, it would create a strait jacket, paralyzing us in a time of economic collapse, war, or natural disaster, no matter what limitations are put into such an amendment. It is time for serious minded people to give up the idea that such an amendment will EVER pass, and instead, take responsibility for the fact that the federal government IS necessary, and that we are all going to have to pay more taxes, whether we like it or not, and that it is PATRIOTIC to pay our fair share, including the super wealthy being thankful for their good fortune, and paying the tax level they used to pay from the 1940s through the 1970s, and certainly at the least, the levels of the Bill Clinton years in the White House!

It is also time for “dreamers”, who have the view that a serious third party movement could lead to the election of a President, to get a reality check as well!

Our electoral college system, which can only be changed by a constitutional amendment, which is not going to happen either, prevents a third party candidate from winning, with Theodore Roosevelt performing the best as a third party candidate of the Progressive Party in 1912, but only winning six states and 88 electoral votes, about a third of what is needed to win the White House. The only reason even he did that well was that he was a former President and extremely popular. Such a scenario will NEVER happen again, particularly with the 22nd Amendment, which limits Presidents to two complete terms in office, something not existing in 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt ran for what would have been a third, but non consecutive term as President.

Even if such a thing could happen, a third party candidate without major party backing would have an impossible situation gaining support to govern effectively, as indeed, independent Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota discovered in his term from 1999-2003!

For good or for bad, we are stuck with the two party system, and we will be electing a Democrat or a Republican for the Presidency for the long term future!

So forget the constitutional amendment route for a balanced budget, and ignore the thoughts of a third party movement electing a President, and instead accept the reality of the American future–we need to work within the system and just pick better people for public office, as we always have the right to do by voting and organizing, and stop hating our government, which with its faults, is still essential and necessary in our daily lives, as much as we would wish otherwise in our dreams!

The Hispanic Future Of America: Danger For The Republican Party!

New Census Bureau statistics indicate that the Hispanic population is now 50 million, one out of every six Americans, the largest minority in the United States.

Also, one out of every four children in America is Hispanic, and the largest electoral vote states, as well as smaller ones, are being impacted by the growth of Hispanic population, which bodes ill for the future of the anti immigrant, anti Hispanic Republican Party, which has been sowing hate and narrow mindedness in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia among other states, but which is guaranteed to reverberate on them over the next decade and beyond!

As young Hispanics become adults, the effect on politics will be massive, and right now, as it is, 60 percent of Hispanics vote Democratic, an overwhelming lead that makes it likely that Texas, in particular, will move from being a Republican state to the Democrats over time, and if that does occur, then the Republican Party will lose the 38 electoral votes of the Lone Star state, and added to California and New York remaining Democratic in presidential elections, the effect will be to make it impossible for Republicans to win the White House in future years!

So as long as the Republicans continue their assault on illegal immigration in such a vicious manner, they will sow the seeds of becoming a permanent minority in American politics, even though right now some think they are on the ascendancy.

In reality, the Republican Party is in the process of committing political suicide!