Midterm Elections Of 2018

Crucial Senate Races On Road To Democratic Majority In 116th Congress

The US Senate will be a major battleground this coming November.

Ten “Red State” Democrats face the challenge of winning their seats, with a few of them the most endangered.

If the Senate is to go Democratic, all ten seats must be won by their Democratic veterans, but that is a tall order, and is tied to the hearings over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

The most endangered regarding that issue are West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, and Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly.

Also possibly in trouble on that issue is Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill.

These four Senators are seen as moderate, rather than liberal Democrats, and all of them except McCaskill, voted for Supreme Court Justice nominee Neil Gorsuch last year.

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr., Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, and Montana Senator Jon Tester all seem safer in their Senate races as of now, but that could change.

The most endangered incumbent, with or without the Kavanaugh vote, is Florida Senator Bill Nelson, who has Governor Rick Scott as his opponent, and with Scott having triple the amount of funds that Nelson has been able to garner. Scott is horrific, but he won two close races for Governor in 2010 and 2014, using his own wealth.

Now there is a new threat, that New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich might have more trouble being reelected, as former Governor and Libertarian Party 2016 Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, has just entered the race as an Independent, and in a three way race, anything is possible.

The problem is that even if all of these 11 Senators are successfully reelected, the Democrats still must win two more seats, with Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas as possibilities in that order.

If the Democrats are able to win 51 seats in 2018, it would have to be considered a true miracle!

The “Red State” Democratic Senators, The Midterm Elections, And Supreme Court Nominee Brett Kavanaugh

Ten “Red State” Democratic Senators face a moment of great challenge in November 2018.

Running for reelection in states that went for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, they face the danger of defeat in their Senate races if they do not support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court, with a final vote expected in October.

Voting for Kavanaugh will insure the likelihood of a conservative majority on the Court for the next 20-30 years, which will affect many areas of domestic and foreign policy, and the powers of the Presidency.

But voting against Kavanaugh may retire many of them, and insure a Republican gain of seats in the US Senate, from 51 to quite a few more, allowing the Republicans to dominate into the future.

So what should these Senators do? Should they be profiles in courage and risk their seats to delay or prevent a conservative Supreme Court majority? Or should they vote for Kavanaugh and give themselves another six years to fight against Trump, without the burden of facing the voters until 2024?

It seems likely that at least the three Senators who voted for Neil Gorsuch last year—Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Joe Donnelly of Indiana—will end up voting to confirm Kavanaugh if the vote cannot be delayed until after the November mid term elections.

The other seven are seen as unlikely to vote for Kavanaugh—Bill Nelson of Florida, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, with all seven now, except possibly Nelson, considered likely for a successful reelection to their Senate seats despite a negative vote on Kavanaugh.

Impeachment Investigations Of Government Officials In American History Mostly Without Basis, More For Political Purposes

The impeachment of Donald Trump seems possible in 2019 IF the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives, which seems highly likely, based upon polls 100 days out, and with the reminder that the party out of the White House always gains seats in the midterm elections, with the exceptions of 1934 under Franklin D. Roosevelt and 2002 under George W. Bush.

Having said that, it is reality that impeachment does not lead to convictions and removals from office, with the exception of seven federal district court judges over the long span of American history.

Richard Nixon would have been an exception if he had not resigned, but Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton both were found not guilty in their impeachment trials.

Other Presidents have been threatened with impeachment, but it was more just a threat or simply could not gain enough support in the House of Representatives to lead to impeachment.

That list of threatened impeachments include: John Tyler in 1842 and 1843; James Buchanan in 1860; Ulysses S. Grant in 1876; Herbert Hoover in 1933; Harry Truman in 1951; Ronald Reagan in 1987; George H. W. Bush in 1991; George W. Bush in 2008; Barack Obama in 2013: and Donald Trump in 2017 and 2018. Notice most of these were not serious, and in many cases occurred in the last year of the President’s term or near the end of his last term in office.

Vice Presidents who have faced impeachment threats are: Schuyler Colfax in 1873, as he was leaving the Grant Administration; Spiro Agnew in 1973 as he neared resignation due to scandal under the Nixon Administration; George H. W. Bush in 1987 as the Iran Contra scandal emerged; and Dick Cheney in 2007 as the second Bush Administration dealt with the Iraq War continuation. None of them gained any traction.

Impeachment motions against Cabinet officers and other federal officials have been mostly just a gesture, a threat, as with, for example, Attorney General Eric Holder in 2013; Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez in 2007; and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in 2004. Most recently threatened with impeachment is Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in the past few days, but unlikely to gain any traction, more used as a political ploy.

100 Days To What? Another “Fixed” Election, Solidifying Trump Authoritarianism As Future Of Our Democracy, Now Under Attack?

We are down to 100 days tomorrow to the Midterm Elections of 2018, which will have a dramatic effect on America and its future, more than any previous midterm election.

Usually, much more attention is paid to the years of presidential elections, but with Donald Trump in the Presidency, and threatening the economic and foreign policy stability of the nation, and posing an authoritarian threat unseen in American history, these upcoming elections are crucial.

42 House seats that were Republican are now vacant or the sitting member will be leaving office, and will have a new Congressperson, and that seems to insure a gain of seats by the Democrats, who only need 23 seats minimum to have a majority of the House of Representatives.

But with Russian interference and hacking again taking place, who can say whether we will get fair, honest election results?

The news media must continue to focus on the facts, and not be diverted by fake accusations of Donald Trump, and his attack on them as “enemies of the people”, a typical totalitarian statement made by Fascist and Communist dictators past and present.

Even as Secretary of Defense James Mattis, FBI head Christopher Wray, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, CIA head Gina Haspel, and many others in the intelligence and national security community continually warn of Russian interference, Donald Trump continues to attack intelligence information and the news media for reporting it.

if that is not treason, then what is it?

Trump’s “Bromance” with Vladimir Putin, including his now delayed invitation for Putin to come to the White House, and Putin inviting him to Moscow, with the likelihood of more private meetings without the participation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, or National Security Adviser John Bolton, or other key individuals, is an alarm bell in the night, that must concern and alarm all patriotic Americans.

New Quinnipiac And Marist Polls And Other Polls Show Sharp Turn Against Donald Trump In Battleground Midwest States

New Quinnipiac and Marist Polls show a sharp turn against Donald Trump in battleground Midwest states, crucial to the Democratic Party’s chances to keep their Senate seats and gain at least two to have a majority, as well as undermine Donald Trump for the 2020 Presidential election. Other polling estimates also show great promise for Democrats at this point.

The polls indicate a 12 point advantage for Democrats in key races for Congress, and the Midwest heartland is particularly showing evidence that Senate seats being defended are in good shape with a bit more than 100 days to the midterm elections on November 6. The House seats look promising too for Democrats to gain a majority, but the problem of Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 midterm elections remains a challenge in many areas of the nation. Governorships are also extremely important with the 2020 census and reapportionment of seats in Congress and the state legislatures on the horizon.

Women have become candidates in much larger numbers than ever before, and young people and minorities, and suburban whites all seem ready to take action to make Congress and President Trump accountable for the reprehensible behavior of the Republican Party in the past 18 months and earlier years.

No one can afford to be lax about voting, as only voting can change things, and yet, there is concerning evidence already that the Russians are again engaged in interference in midterm elections in several states. Just today, it was made clear that Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill had had interference by Russian attempts to undermine her close reelection contest.

We must be vigilant, and it is a crime that Trump and the Republicans in charge of Congress refuse to allocate extra funding to work against Russian interference.

It is also outrageous that Trump is now stating that he thinks there is interference, and that the Russians are trying to work against him and help the Democrats, a totally preposterous concept.

78 “Swing” Districts In House Of Representatives, With A Minimum of 23 Switching Control In Midterm Elections Giving Democrats Control

It is estimated by political experts that there are 78 “Swing” districts in the House of Representatives, which could go either way in November.

History tells us that with the exception of 1934, and 2002, the party NOT in the White House always gains seats, and often a large number of seats, and takes over the majority in Congress, as in 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010.

Since the Democrats only need 23 seats to switch control of the lower house of Congress, it is hard to imagine that this will not occur.

There are plenty of seats that could change due to the Trump policies and programs, particularly in states such as New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and California, with selected seats in other states many of them “Red” for Trump.

More likely than just 23 seats is the possibility of a massive switch of seats, possibly as many as 40 or more seats going to the Democrats.

If such happens, which polls seem to show likely to occur, we will have the ability of the House of Representatives to fully investigate many scandals and controversies that have been pushed aside by the Republican majority.

And impeachment of Donald Trump would be likely in 2019, just as Robert Mueller comes to conclusions on his investigation of Trump for Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, abuse of the Emoluments Clause, and so much else.

Conviction would be difficult, nearly impossible, of Trump on impeachment charges, but his erratic behavior could lead to pressure for him to resign, and since Mike Pence wants to be President, do not be so sure he would not turn against his boss at some point, as hard as that is to imagine right now in late July 2018.

Bob Corker And Jeff Flake Both Retiring, Should Use Their Influence On The Senate Foreign Relations Committee To Quell Donald Trump

Two Republican Senators have decided not to run for reelection, and both have been critics of Donald Trump.

Bob Corker of Tennessee is the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, and Jeff Flake of Arizona is on the committee.

Both have no reason to cooperate with Donald Trump, now after this horrific week of foreign policy. We have witnessed the trashing of NATO and the European Union, and criticism of leaders of major allies, including Angela Merkel of Germany, Theresa May of Great Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France, and Justin Trudeau of Canada by Trump. At the same time, we have seen the praise and secret diplomacy of Trump with Vladimir Putin, causing an uproar, and now Trump’s invitation to Putin to come to the White House in the fall, possibly before the midterm elections, or alternately to witness the military parade ordered by Trump for Veterans Day, to be celebrated Saturday November 10 in Washington DC.

Corker and Flake, along with others, should denounce the Putin invitation and the wasted money on an unnecessary military parade, so that Donald Trump’s ego is further glorified.

The two Senators should do everything possible to make life for Trump more difficult, and should refuse to move forward on any policy, foreign or domestic, where their votes are needed to make a majority.

Both should order more subpoenas to require administration cabinet members to testify under oath, and make clear that they have declared war on the corrupt Presidency of Donald Trump!

Their leadership could make a difference in so many ways, and encourage more Senators on the Republican side to join them and the ill Senator John McCain of Arizona, and the principled Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, who has been a never ending critic of Donald Trump, and could face retribution when he faces his own reelection in 2020.

Of course, it is possible to imagine that Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, and Ben Sasse could end up challenging Trump for the Republican Presidential nomination of 2020 against Trump, or Vice President Mike Pence, were he to become President later in this term.

Trump-Putin Summit Clear Indication Of Treason, And Danger To Pursuit Of The Entire Truth Of The 2016 Presidential Election

Watching the Trump-Putin Summit Press Conference in Helsinki, Finland, brings confirmation that the 45th President of the United States has committed, and continues to commit treason, favoring the Russian Federation over the national security interests of the United States.

Putin won just by the fact that Trump agreed to meet him, with Russia having a weak economy and suffering from economic sanctions put upon his nation by the international community after the invasion of the Crimean area of Ukraine in 2014.

Putin leads a country which has a very small Gross National Product, and has nuclear weapons that are a fraction of what the United States has, and yet Trump makes “friends” and “trusts” Putin, while denouncing Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel, and Justin Trudeau.

Trump calls the European Union our “foe”, and has set out to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and continues to denounce the Robert Mueller investigation of Russian collusion in the Presidential Election of 2016.

Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and even Red Scare demagogue Senator Joseph McCarthy are rolling over in their graves.

If any member of the Trump Administration cares more for his nation than his job, he or she should resign enmasse now, or be seen as complicit in “high crimes and misdemeanors”, specifically treason.

Vice President Mike Pence should confer with the Cabinet Officers, and invoke the 25th Amendment Section 4 immediately, or be also declared a traitor to America, with the only way to save his reputation being showing leadership in this greatest moment of threat to our Republic since the Civil War.

For Trump to decide to trust Putin over the national security, diplomatic, and intelligence community is a total outrage. Putin and his team are rejoicing how they have managed to compromise and manipulate a man who should never have been President in the first place, and only won due to Russian collusion.

Putin is responsible for downing of passenger jets; murdering journalists; poisoning and assassinating people in their homes on foreign soil; killing with radiation and military grade nerve agents; and sponsoring far right white supremacist groups on two continents.

It is time for mass marches all over the nation every weekend demanding the resignation, or arrest of the traitor in the White House, no better than Benedict Arnold in the American Revolution, as he has undermined our nation’s defenses against future manipulation of our democracy by Russia, which is sure to happen again.

And the Mueller investigation MUST continue unimpeded, or else the Constitution and Bill of Rights are in shreds! Thirty five indictments, six guilty pleas (including the National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and the Trump Campaign Chair Paul Manafort), and one conviction are just the tip of the iceberg!

If the American people do not come out in droves and kick the Republicans out of control of Congress, then the American people will deserve what they get, a move toward a Fascist, totalitarian government manipulated by Vladimir Putin!

The President of the United States is supposed to make sure that the laws are faithfully executed, and promote the rule of law. Donald Trump has totally failed at this responsibility in favor of being a “friend” of a Russian oligarch. He needs to be brought to justice, and sentenced to life in prison for his crimes—-Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, violation of the Emoluments Clause, and crimes by his cabinet officers, the most egregious of any President in American history!

Donald Trump, The “Manchurian Candidate”, And Vladimir Putin: The Downfall Of The Western Alliance System

The idea is finally sinking in that Donald Trump is similar to the main character in the 1962 film, “The Manchurian Candidate”, a candidate for President planted by the enemy of America.

His constant praise of Vladimir Putin of Russia, and his constant criticism of the leaders of Canada, Germany, France, Great Britain, and other allies in NATO makes one come to this conclusion as a rational thought, as the Western alliance system is in danger of disintegration.

His worship of the authoritarian leaders of China, North Korea, Turkey, Egypt and the Philippines among other dictators, is further proof that Donald Trump despises democracy, civil liberties, the Constitution and Bill of Rights, and the traditions of American history in both domestic and foreign policy.

So for someone to assert that Donald Trump is dangerous to America’s present and future, is not just political hyperbole.

We are in a situation where Russia clearly intervened in the 2016 Presidential election, and is attempting to influence the 2018 Midterm Elections for Congress and the state governments, and is looking ahead to the Presidential Election of 2020.

The thought that Donald Trump might just win a second term, and then challenge the 22nd Amendment, and wish to stay on as President for life, is not just an idle thought, and everyone must work together to insure that such does not happen.

The Trump Juggernaut Overrunning Moderate Democrats: Between A Rock And A Hard Place!

The Democratic Party is at a crossroads, and moderate Senate Democrats are “between a rock and a hard place”, with the Trump juggernaut about to run them down!

There are 10 Democratic moderates who are running for reelection in states won by Donald Trump.

If they all remained loyal to their party, and IF Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski joined them, a Supreme Court pick could be stopped, but that is asking for too much to be assured.

And if they do not support the Trump nominee, it could kill their chances of reelection.

But of course, if they vote for the Trump nominee, many Democrats and moderates might decide it is not worth voting, and they will lose their elections anyway.

So what to do?

Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota voted for Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, last year.

All three are in great danger of losing their seats, with or without the Supreme Court nominee controversy they now face.

Then we have Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Jon Tester of Montana, also in great danger of losing their seats.

The other five “Red State” Democrats are probably safer, and unlikely to lose their seats—Bob Casey Jr of Pennsylvania (who however is anti abortion in his background); Sherrod Brown of Ohio; Debbie Stebanow of Michigan; Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin; and Bill Nelson of Florida (but his seat will be the most expensive race ever, with opponent Rick Scott spending tens of millions to defeat Nelson).

So if one is to promote the left wing Democratic view, we would say to hell with these Senators, whose voting record is far from ideal, but the alternative to staying united no matter what these ten Senators decide to do on the Supreme Court nominee of Trump, is to see the Republicans gain more seats and lock up the Senate for the long haul.

That is why it seems to this blogger that to promote or expect a left wing Democrat as the Presidential nominee, while ideal in theory, is likely to kill off any chance of the Democrats winning the Presidency in 2020, after what could be a Democratic debacle in the Senate races this year.

What seems likely to happen is that the three Democrats who voted for Gorsuch will vote for the Trump Supreme Court choice and will survive, and the other seven Democrats—particularly the three women—McCaskill, Stabenow and Baldwin—will vote against and yet survive as well. Casey will be conflicted but probably vote NO and survive, as well as Brown. And Tester should still be able to win another term as well.

The toughest seat to keep will be Bill Nelson in Florida, but it seems likely he will vote NO on the nominee.

So at the end, the likely vote will be 53-46, all 50 GOP Senators, including Collins and Murkowski, with the exception of the absent John McCain, and Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp, with anger and disgust by Democrats, but the only likely road to those seats being saved.

So IF all seats are saved, except possibly Florida, and then IF Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and maybe Texas are gained, the Democrats MIGHT have a 51-49 or 52-48 Democratic Senate, and the battle against Trump will have another day and more to fight, the best possible under present circumstances.

Of course, all progressives have to pray for the good health and continued life of Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, to serve until 2021, a tall order, as if that does not happen, the Supreme Court is lost with a certainty until close to 2045-2050, past the lifetime of this blogger and probably all of my readers.

This is a gloomy reality, but we have to do whatever we can do to promote a Democratic majority in both houses, and accept that not all Democrats will be progressives, but will at least be of the party persuasion!