Midterm Elections Of 2002

American History Since The Civil War: President’s Party Loses 32 House Seats And 2 Senate Seats In First Midterm Election

American history tells us that the party of the President regularly loses seats in the first, and all but once in the second (when it occurs) Presidential term of office.

The one major exception was 1934, when in the midst of the Great Depression, and FDR’s New Deal programs, the Democratic party gained 9 seats in the Senate and 9 seats in the House of Representatives.

Also, in 2002, after September 11, George W. Bush and the Republican Party gained 2 seats in the Senate and 8 in the House of Representatives.

And Bill Clinton and the Democratic Party, in the second term midterm election in 1998, gained 5 House seats, with no change in the US Senate.

That is the total historical record since the Civil War, more than 150 years, so it is clear that the Democrats will gain seats in the midterm elections of 2018.

The average since the Civil War is 32 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and if that happens precisely, the Democrats will have gained the House, needing only 24 seats, and the average historically being 23 seats, when one includes both first and second term midterm elections of a President.

But also, if the Senate were to see just the 2 seat gain as the average, then the Democrats would have the majority with 51 seats, which can be brought about by gaining the contested seats of Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and Nevada, where Dean Heller is seen as the most endangered Republican in 2018.

But to accomplish that, the Democrats must produce, miraculously. the retention of Senate seats in 10 Trump states in 2016–Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, and also retain the Minnesota seat recently vacated by Al Franken, and the New Jersey Senate seat of Bob Menendez, who faces another criminal trial after a hung jury. That will be a tall order for sure!

Will 2010 Be Another 1934? More Likely Than Imagined Today!

Only twice has the party in the White House won seats in the midterm elections–1934 and 2002!

2002 was right after the attacks of September 11 the year before, and there was still great support for George W. Bush, so the GOP gained a few seats in 2002–four in the House of Representatives and two in the Senate!

In 1934, the Democrats under Franklin D. Roosevelt gained nine seats in the House and nine in the Senate, an amazing reality considering the unemployment rate was 21.7 percent, down from 24.9, but still unbelievably high!

In 1936, when FDR ran for reelection and swept all but Maine and Vermont, the unemployment rate was still 17.0 percent; and in 1940, it was still 14.6 percent!

FDR was constantly attacked by the Republican opposition, and by demagogues on radio, called a socialist and a communist by many! But still, the American people saw that the President was concerned about them, and was doing everything possible to work on the economic mess, while the opposition was only negative and critical, and had no real alternative to what the Democrats offered!

So while there is a 9.5 percent unemployment rate in early July, 2010, it has not risen to the Reagan high of 10.8 in 1982, having peaked at 10.2 percent months ago!

No one is saying that anyone is happy about the economic situation that exists, but don’t be so sure that the Republican and conservative attacks are really going to have the effect that many believe!

The more the GOP candidates for office speak and comment, and the more research that is done by the Democrats on their backgrounds and records, the more the chance grows that the Democrats will have only small losses in Congress, and with some luck, maybe even some slight gains in one or both houses of Congress!

It is not time in July, 2010, to give up on the Democratic party, which has brought about fundamental change under President Obama, similar to what happened under President Roosevelt almost eighty years ago!