Gerrymandering

The Growing Danger Of A Constitutional Crisis After November 3

With 162 days until the Presidential Election of 2020, we are on the brink of the most consequential constitutional crisis since the Civil War.

We have a renegade President who has made it clear that he has no intention of giving up his office if he loses on November 3.

It may not matter to him if the election is a landslide, and certainly not if it is close.

We have to expect that the Secret Service, the FBI, and military will intervene to insure a peaceful transition of power.

But the possibility of bloodshed and violence by the one third of the nation which are Trumpites is literally terrifying!

Trump is trying every tactic imaginable, including voter suppression; trying to make mail ballots not acceptable even though many people already vote by mail; foreign collusion; and gerrymandering attempts as methods to fix the election of our next administration.

This is a time to worry that anything is possible, as Donald Trump has authoritarian tendencies, and might be willing to unleash his followers to seize the government by force!

Donald Trump Botched His Last Attempt To Show Concern For The American People, In His Atrocious Reaction To Covid-19 Pandemic!

Donald Trump, the extreme narcissist, and mentally very unstable, and more dangerous every day for the nation, botched his last attempt to show concern and empathy for the American people, by his atrocious reaction to the CoronaVirus Pandemic!

Any chance he had to redeem himself to the American people and his historic reputation is lost, as he has refused to promote contact tracing or testing, and is very willing to accept mass loss of life without any guilt or conscience!

All that matters to Donald Trump is to be reelected, with the thought that if somehow, through foreign collusion, voter suppression, or gerrymandering combination, he is reelected, the nightmare we are living through will become much worse!

This is not just about massive loss of life, but also the abuse of power by a reenergized President who will go further in destroying the Constitution and Bill of Rights, setting up a Fascist dictatorship that his Republican Party will abide by. This will be instead of promoting the principles enunciated by Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and other historic Republicans of principle and common decency over the 166 years of the party’s history!

Once we lose our basic civil liberties and civil rights, how can we ever regain them? How can we protect the vulnerable among us, including the disabled, the elderly, the young, and racial and ethnic minorities, which will suffer more than the general population?

That is why, as stated in my History News Network article of April 29, the Election of 2020 is the most significant one since 1940, in that our whole way of life is in danger, as it was in the four previous elections discussed in the article—1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940!

May 7, 1945 And May 7, 2020: The End Of One Crisis And The Growth Of The Worst Threat In 75 Years!

Seventy five years ago, World War II in Europe ended with the German surrender, although it was not officially announced to the world until the next day, which, coincidentally, was new President Harry Truman’s 61st birthday, only in office for 26 days, upon the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt on April 12, 1945.

It is true that the war against Japan did not end until after the atomic bomb was used in August 1945, with surrender of Japan on September 2, 1945. But the dire threat of Adolf Hitler was over on May 7, 1945.

Now, 75 years later, America is in the worst crisis since World War II, with 33 million people out of 155 million employed before the CoronaVirus Pandemic hit, now unemployed, and many losing their homes, having no food to eat, many in mortal health danger, and we have a President and administration sitting by and doing nothing, only interested in reelection.

And on this day, 75,000 Americans have died in about two months, more than the Vietnam War or the Korean War, and each day now, about as many are died on Pearl Harbor Day (December 7, 1941) or September 11, 2001!

Trump and his cronies in the Republican Party seem to live in an alternate world, where one can kick around the population and yet think they are going to be given power again, to do ever more damage to the American people.

The only way that Trump can be reelected is by foreign government collusion; state governments who promote illegal gerrymandering; and state government purging the voter rolls, promoting voter suppression by other tactics, including fewer voting locations and dates, and denying felons who have completed their debt to society the right to vote as in Florida and a few other states.

The Republicans know that they cannot win honestly, and that the future of their party is dim, but they will engage in any form of corruption to promote nativism, racism, Islamophobia, and gay bashing.

The Democrats have a massive job on their hands to insure a truly fair election, including voting by mail for those who wish to use that method of voting, for any reason!

Latinos Future Democratic Base In Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas

Donald Trump’s “war” on people of Hispanic ancestry is guaranteeing that the vast majority of Latinos in the future will be supporters of the Democratic Party long term, as they are in California.

When California Governor Pete Wilson promoted Proposition 187 to deny undocumented immigrants basic public services in the state, it backfired on him and the Republican Party, which had been dominant in the state for a few decades, including Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan as Californians who became President.

Proposition 187 was overturned in the courts, but it made the Republican Party the loser, as they rapidly lost any influence over the state, and the number of California Republicans in Congress dwindled down to seven in 2018, after years of great decline.

The same is about to happen in other states with large Latino population, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and ultimately, Texas.

And as this begins to happen, some of it in 2020, and more by 2024 and after, it will insure Democratic Congresses in the future, as congressional seats in those states start to fall into the hands of the Democrats.

And the Electoral College will bring a bright future as these four states turn blue, and particularly when Texas does so in the next decade.

So the day of GOP dominance with gerrymandering and voter suppression will come to an end, but the Democrats will have a massive job undoing the damage left by Donald Trump and his party.

Crucial Gubernatorial Races That Could Affect The Future In Reapportionment Of Seats In Congress And State Legislatures After 2020 Census

There are a number of crucial gubernatorial races coming up in November, which could dramatically change the future of American politics, and change the reapportionment of seats that comes about after the Census of 2020.

In Florida, Gwen Graham, the daughter of well respected former Governor and Senator Bob Graham, is now leading the Democratic primary in the polls, and she could affect the beginning of the return of Democrats to influence in the state legislature and in Congress, and is far preferable to Congressman Ron DeSantis, the favored Republican candidate backed by Donald Trump.

In Georgia, the Democrats have nominated Stacey Abrams, who has been the minority leader in the state House of Representatives, and is African American, against Trump endorsed Brian Kemp, the Georgia Secretary of State, who is extreme on gun rights.

In Ohio, Richard Cordray, the former head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and past Attorney General and State Treasurer, is the Democratic nominee for Governor, and is challenged by Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, former US Senator, Lieutenant Governor, and Congressman.

In Illinois, the Democratic nominee for Governor is J B Pritzker, a venture capitalist, entrepreneur, and philanthropist, competing against incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner, also a venture capitalist and entrepreneur, who has had a contentious relationship with the Democratic controlled state legislature.

In California, Gavin Newsom, the Lieutenant Governor, is the Democratic nominee for Governor, running against Republican John Cox, a businessman, attorney and political activist backed by Donald Trump.

In Pennsylvania, sitting Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is heavily favored to win reelection, over Republican nominee and state representative Scott Wagner.

In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott is challenged by former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, with Abbott strongly favored to be reelected, but thought that she would be a strong challenge to Abbott.

These seven large states in population could see six out of seven victories for the Democrats, all but Texas, in all likelihood.

With Democrats having only 16 state Governors, but 36 gubernatorial elections coming up, the odds of a majority or more of state governors being Democrats in 2019 is considered a likelihood, and would allow the Democrats to have a great influence on reapportionment and gerrymandering in the next decade.

New Quinnipiac And Marist Polls And Other Polls Show Sharp Turn Against Donald Trump In Battleground Midwest States

New Quinnipiac and Marist Polls show a sharp turn against Donald Trump in battleground Midwest states, crucial to the Democratic Party’s chances to keep their Senate seats and gain at least two to have a majority, as well as undermine Donald Trump for the 2020 Presidential election. Other polling estimates also show great promise for Democrats at this point.

The polls indicate a 12 point advantage for Democrats in key races for Congress, and the Midwest heartland is particularly showing evidence that Senate seats being defended are in good shape with a bit more than 100 days to the midterm elections on November 6. The House seats look promising too for Democrats to gain a majority, but the problem of Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 midterm elections remains a challenge in many areas of the nation. Governorships are also extremely important with the 2020 census and reapportionment of seats in Congress and the state legislatures on the horizon.

Women have become candidates in much larger numbers than ever before, and young people and minorities, and suburban whites all seem ready to take action to make Congress and President Trump accountable for the reprehensible behavior of the Republican Party in the past 18 months and earlier years.

No one can afford to be lax about voting, as only voting can change things, and yet, there is concerning evidence already that the Russians are again engaged in interference in midterm elections in several states. Just today, it was made clear that Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill had had interference by Russian attempts to undermine her close reelection contest.

We must be vigilant, and it is a crime that Trump and the Republicans in charge of Congress refuse to allocate extra funding to work against Russian interference.

It is also outrageous that Trump is now stating that he thinks there is interference, and that the Russians are trying to work against him and help the Democrats, a totally preposterous concept.

State Politics Much More Complicated Than Often Realized: The Cases Of New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Texas, California

Anyone who follows American politics historically and contemporarily often seems unaware of the complexity of state politics around the nation.

We hear discussion of “Blue” states and “Red” states, but state politics is much more complicated that that.

Gerrymandering often distorts the reality of political loyalties in many states, and also the reality of about one third of voters being “Independent”, rather than loyal to Democrats or Republicans.

There are many examples of this across the nation, particularly noticeable in larger, more populated states.

Just a few examples:

New York State is often thought to be strongly Democratic, but not true in the state legislature, and New York City is vastly different in political culture from upstate New York areas, such as Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Even Long Island, Nassau and Suffolk Counties, often reflect different views than the five boroughs of New York City, and within New York City, Staten Island, is vastly different from Manhattan, the Bronx, and Brooklyn, with Queens County more balanced than the other boroughs in the city.

Pennsylvania is a state where gerrymandering has given the Republicans until now a great advantage, but new court ordered mandates may change that balance in Congress and the state legislature. Philadelphia has a very different political orientation than western Pennsylvania, often called “Alabama” outside of the city of Pittsburgh.

Virginia is well known to have a very liberal Democratic northern section (often called NoVa), reflecting the influence of being the Washington DC suburbs, while much of the rest of the state is reliably conservative and Republican.

Florida is strongly Democratic in the southern counties, particularly Broward and Palm Beach Counties, with somewhat less so in Miami Dade County due to the influence of Cuban Americans, but even that is diminishing, since it is now 60 years since the rise of Fidel Castro, and those directly affected negatively by Castro, are mostly no longer part of the population in Miami. At the same time, Central Florida is the real battleground in the state, the area that decides most elections. North Florida is much like Alabama or Georgia, its neighbors.

Ohio is strongly Democratic in the northern and central sections, particularly in Cleveland and Toledo, and the capital of Columbus, but in the more rural parts and in southern Ohio, near Kentucky, including Cincinnati, it is strongly Republican.

Illinois is dominated by Chicago in the northern part, but down state Illinois is much more Republican in orientation.

Michigan has Detroit as strongly Democratic but in western and northern Michigan, it is much more rural and Republican.

Texas has Democratic strongholds in the state capitol, Austin, and in Houston, while other portions of this very large state, including the rural areas, are strongly Republican.

California has Democratic strongholds in San Francisco and Los Angeles, but the Central Valley, San Diego, and cities like Bakersfield, where House Majority Leader and possible next Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy resides, are strongly Republican.

The next race for the Speaker of the House could be between two Californians of totally different mentalities–Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco and Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield.

A basic reality is that urban areas are always much more likely to be Democratic while rural areas are certain to be more Republican.

Suburban areas are what often decides the politics of a state and in Congress and the Presidential election, as they are the balancing force that determines a state vote, and recently it seems clear the suburban areas, often Republican, are starting to move away from that long time loyalty.

Gerrymandering, Creating Barriers In Many States To Vote, And Changing Census By Adding Citizenship Question, All Designed To Help Republicans Overcome Future Diversity Of American Population!

The Republican Party has dedicated itself to using every possible method, no matter how unethical it is, to keep themselves in power, by curbing voting by racial minorities the poor, and college students, knowing they would be unlikely to gain the support of such groups in the voting booths.

So they have utilized gerrymandering to create districts that will always favor the white majority in as many congressional districts and state legislative districts as possible, although some such gerrymandering schemes have started to be repudiated by state and federal courts recently.

They have created as many barriers as possible to different groups being able to vote, as a result of the backtracking of the Supreme Court in 2013, on the enforcement of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 under President Lyndon B. Johnson.

And now, they are trying to mandate a 2020 Census question on citizenship, designed to insure that undocumented immigrants will not fill out the census forms, out of fear of deportation.

All this, being challenged, will lead to the downfall of a party that has lost all morality and ethics, and many decent Republicans and conservatives outside of government positions have already done so.

The future diversity of the American population toward a non white majority within about 25 years is certain, and the Republican Party is fighting a losing battle in that regard!

Conor Lamb Victory In Pennsylvania Congressional Race Indication Of Major Democratic Wave This November In Midterm Elections!

Democrat Conor Lamb won the Pennsylvania Congressional race in a strongly gerrymandered Republican district won by Donald Trump in 2016 by more than 20 points.

This should not have happened, and it is a sign of a major Democratic wave this November in midterm Congressional elections.

There are 119 GOP districts which are not as strongly Republican in 2016 as this particular Pennsylvania district.

The suburbs are starting to turn against Republicans nationwide, and that is the key to Democratic victory.

Joe Biden campaigned for Lamb, while Trump campaigned for the Republican nominee, and almost completely ignored him on Saturday night, as he gave the most unhinged imaginable speech, making a fool of himself, and every time Trump gives a crazy speech, he is losing support.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden was a major factor for Lamb, and this will boost his expected Presidential campaign.

People are starting to back away from Trump and his party, and remember only 23 seats are needed as a minimum to gain control of the House of Representatives. Many Republicans have decided not to run for reelection, and those numbers will now grow as a result of this Republican defeat yesterday.

The Democrats have now won 43 races since November 2016, while the Republicans have won just 4, and this includes the Governors of New Jersey and Virginia, and the Alabama Senate seat.

The tide is turning, and the key thing is not expecting that all Democrats must be hard left, as that is a prescription for disaster, and there is a need for more moderate Democrats, who will disappoint on some bills, but will generally back the party when push comes to shove.

On Gun Regulation And DACA, Vast Majorities Are In Support, But Trump And GOP Ignore Public Opinion!

One would think that America was a nation based on the consent of the governed, but apparently not so, in the age of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in control of our government, but only due to the faults of the Electoral College and of gerrymandering.

85-90 percent of the nation in public opinion polls support gun regulation, with the large number of massacres occurring in schools, malls, churches, and other public places, but the National Rifle Association owns the Republican Party, so when mass shootings take place, little is said other than “thoughts and prayers”, and nothing is done, even to have minimal oversight of people who purchase weapons.

The same percent want the “Dreamers” under DACA to be allowed to stay. and to have an eventual pathway to citizenship, but instead, they are being victimized by the racism and nativism of Donald Trump and the Republican Party. These young people have served in the military, attended college, held responsible employment, and have not engaged in criminal activities, but are being threatened with deportation by ICE agents, because their parents came here illegally.

America is now a nation in which these two evils of gun violence and discrimination against people who are not white Anglos has become a norm, with little done to deal with either issue.

This is causing great despair as America becomes a place that resists security for average Americans, and a sense of justice and fairness toward its minority groups.

Add to this the growing misogyny, and America has backtracked so much from the image of America as a democracy that promotes equality, justice, and fair play to all who reside in the country.