Gavin Newsom

The Democratic Presidential Rumor Mill Grows From 18 To 25! But Probably 10 “Serious” Possibilities!

Nine days ago, this blogger published an article, discussing 18 potential Democratic Presidential candidates for 2020.

My article was a bit ahead of the media in bringing up the issue, but now the rumor mill has come up with 7 more potential Democratic candidates, making for a total, in theory, of 25!

This is the silly season, right after the First Hundred Days of Donald Trump, and having a list this lengthy does seem a bit ridiculous.

However, for the record, the other 7 names being bandied about are:

Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley from 2007 to 2015 and Baltimore Mayor before that from 1999-2007, age 57 in 2020, who this blogger should NOT have left off the original list. O’Malley was once thought of as the “new generation” of leadership, but could not compete against Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and the rumors that Joe Biden would run. Certainly, he belonged on the original list of 18, making it 19, and has a likely better chance in theory than some on that list.

Entrepreneur, businessman, and owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, Mark Cuban, age 62 in 2020, who is very personable and appealing, and could be the “outsider”, equivalent of the Democrats’ Donald Trump, but personally, this blogger is not keen about outside businessmen with no government experience, and Donald Trump just adds to that feeling, that it is not a great idea.

Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, age 63 in 2020, who leaves office at the end of this year, but was formerly Democratic National Chairman from 2001-2005; Bill Clinton co chair in the 1996 Presidential campaign; and Hillary Clinton chair in the 2008 Presidential campaign, has the disadvantage of being connected to the Clintons, and has an image of being a bit sleazy and crooked throughout his political career, so would not seem a likely choice to get very far in the 2020 Presidential race. If anything, Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner seem more likely candidates from Virginia.

New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, age 60 in 2020, whose sister Mary was a long time US Senator from Louisiana fromJimmy 1997 to 2015, and whose father, Moon Landrieu, was Mayor of the city from 1970-1978, and Housing and Urban Development Secretary under Jimmy Carter from 1979 to 1981, has become recently controversial with his decision to remove Confederate monuments in the city, including those of Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee. Being a moderate Southern Democrat might make some think of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but it would seem highly unlikely that he would have much of a shot at the nomination for President.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who would be 49 in 2020, and who is Jewish and also of Mexican heritage as well, and mayor of the second largest city in America in the largest state in America, might possibly be a more serious nominee on paper. Garcetti has long experience in city government, being a member of the LA City Council, and then its President, for nearly a total of 12 years on the Council, and Mayor since 2013. Being a person of urban and multiple ethnic and religious Los Angeles, the most diverse city possible in America, might just be a positive in the long run, and this is a person to watch, in the view of this blogger.

We also have two Massachusetts members of the House of Representatives, Seth Moulton, who would be 42 in 2020; and President John F. Kennedy’s grand nephew, Robert F. Kennedy’s grandson, and former Congressman Joe Kennedy II’s son, Joe Kennedy III, who would be only 40. Moulton has served since 2015 in the House, and Kennedy since 2013, and both have made names for themselves with their liberal views, and both are seen as ambitious rivals, but a bit young to be thinking of running, or be considered at all for the Presidency. Also, only James A. Garfield in 1880 went directly from the House to the Presidency, and then he was tragically killed within months. To believe a House member would be elected is highly unlikely.

In the view of this blogger, one could add O’Malley and Garcetti to the shorter list with Chris Murphy, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Mark Warner, Sherrod Brown, and Elizabeth Warren as the most legitimate candidates.

So I am saying a total of 10 serious candidates is likely, which is certainly long enough—6 US Senators, 3 Governors (assuming Newsom is elected California Governor), and 1 Mayor, LA Mayor Garcetti. The list also includes 2 women, 1 African American, and 1 Jewish and Mexican combination (Garcetti). This is a pretty representative list.

Any commentary by my readers on this and the April 25 article is welcome!

Time For “A New Generation Of Leadership” For Democrats Running For The Presidency

The Democratic Party needs “new blood” running for President in 2020, just as it had in John F. Kennedy in 1960; Jimmy Carter in 1976; Bill Clinton in 1992; and Barack Obama in 2008.

This is not the time for “old” leadership, meaning another run for the White House by Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. Anyone reading this blog knows of my great admiration for Biden, but at age 78 in 2020, it is too late, in the author’s opinion, for him to be a serious alternative. And as much as Hillary Clinton has an exceptional background, having run for President twice, and being still seen by many as a divisive figure, and being 73 in 2020, it is proper to say that her time has passed.

It is also NOT the time for Bernie Sanders, who despite his strong support, is not really a cooperative member of the Democratic Party, not having been a member until he decided to run for President, and now backing away again from membership in the party. His age in 2020, 79, also makes him far from a good choice for such a demanding job.

What about Elizabeth Warren? She will be 71 in 2020 and is an inspiring person, but the problem of misogyny that Hillary Clinton faced, which was a factor in her defeat, argues against Warren, as she has been cast in a negative light by many, for her vehement and outspoken manner. This blogger admires her, but finds it hard to believe she could win in the 2020 Presidential race.

So basically, what we need is someone not thought about before, and there are a multitude of candidates one can think of to consider for 2020.

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, (62 in 2020) )Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate, is one, as is his fellow Virginian, Senator Mark Warner (65 in 2020). But both are seen by many as too moderate centrist, not appealing to the Bernie Sanders supporters in 2016.

There is Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, (68 in 2020), who was thought of as an alternative running mate for Clinton, and who might have helped keep the white working class in Ohio and elsewhere for the Democrats in 2016.

There is also Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who would be 47 in 2020, and comes across as very appealing in appearance and views on the issues.

Then, there is Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who would be 51 in 2020, but is seen as too centrist by many, and being African American, after the racism so evident during the term of Barack Obama, one wonders if that would be a problem.

And there are also Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota (60 in 2020)and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York (54 in 2020), but being females might be a negative factor, sad to say.

Additionally, there is Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon (64 in 2020), the only Democrat to endorse Bernie Sanders in 2016.

Less likely possibilities include Senator Chris Coons of Delaware (57 in 2020); Senator Al Franken of Minnesota (69 in 2020); Senator Kamala Harris of California (56 in 2020); and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island (65 in 2020).

Other than the US Senate, the only possible gubernatorial Presidential possibilities that seem reasonable are New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (62 in 2020), and California Lieutenant Governor and likely next Governor Gavin Newsom (53 in 2020), former Mayor of San Francisco.

Trying to figure out this early who might indeed run is really difficult, but one can assume that a good number of these 18 possibilities will actually enter the Presidential race.

First thoughts on this would be that Chris Murphy, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Cuomo, and Gavin Newsom would have the best chance, with all likely to be candidates. All are young enough, and have a record of accomplishment worthy of consideration. But also, it is likely that Mark Warner, Sherrod Brown, and Elizabeth Warren will also announce for President, and others might as well.

Of course, someone not yet thought of, who might be elected to the governorship or the Senate in 2018, might be added to the list.

And, one cannot eliminate someone from outside the political system, likely a businessman or media or entertainment star, could enter the race, and one cannot project against such a person having a real chance to be the Democratic Presidential nominee.

One must recall that John F. Kennedy had the issue of Catholicism that was a problem; Jimmy Carter the Southern issue and basically unknown nationally; Bill Clinton having the ethics and morality issue; and Barack Obama having the racial problem.

No one would have predicted three years before their elections that any of them would have been the nominee of the party, let alone the next Presidency of the United States!

Gay Marriage Finally National: The Advancement Of Human Rights Reaches A New Pinnacle Of Social Justice!

On June 28, 1969, the Stonewall Inn, a gay restaurant and nightclub in Greenwich Village in New York City, was raided by police, leading to a large scale riot. It was the beginning of the gay rights movement, the struggle against oppression.

46 years have passed, and on June 26, 2015, the Supreme Court upheld the right of gays and lesbians to marry everywhere in the United States, a path breaking advancement in human rights, reaching a new pinnacle of social justice. It makes America a more perfect democracy, promoting equality and liberty for another class of citizens who have faced oppression. It is a tremendous expansion of human rights and social justice!

America is a better nation for this fantastic development, and much credit is due to several people, including:

Then San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who was the first chief executive to promote gay marriage in California, and officiate at many gay weddings n 2003. He is now Lieutenant Governor of California, and likely successor to Governor Jerry Brown in the next gubernatorial election in 2018.

Ted Olson and David Boies, opposing attorneys in the Bush-Gore Presidential battle in 2000, who pursued the constitutional case promoting gay marriage, helping to lead it to Supreme Court decision yesterday.

Associate Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion in four crucial Supreme Court cases, in 2003 (Lawrence V Texas), two in 2013 (Hollingsworth V Perry) and (US V Windsor), and yesterday (Obergefell V Hodges) Without him, none of this advancement of gay rights and gay marriage could ever have occurred. Interestingly, all four of these cases were decided on June 26, of those years, 2003, 2013, and 2015!

The history of the gay rights movement is yet to be written, but it will be seen as part of the great movement forward as evidenced by the abolitionist crusade against slavery; the woman suffrage movement; the civil rights movement; the labor union movement; the environmental movement; the disability reform movement; the promotion of a safety net as represented by Social Security, Medicare, and now ObamaCare; and the immigration reform movement!

June 28, 1969-June 28, 2013—Gay Rights From The Stonewall Riots To Marriages In California!

It is exactly 44 years since the New York police raided the Stonewall Inn, leading to the Stonewall Riots, often seen as the beginning of the modern gay rights movement.

And today, exactly 44 years to the day, and as I write this, the first gay marriages in California, our most populated state, are being performed since the Supreme Court decision this week overturning Proposition 8, which stopped gay marriages in California after they had taken place for a few years, going back to then San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom marrying the first gay couples in 2004.

There is still great opposition to gay marriage among Catholic leaders, evangelical Christians, Orthodox Jews, and many Muslim groups, but with 13 states allowing it, the trend is toward eventual acceptance legally in the other states, probably by a future Supreme Court decision, similar to Loving V. Virginia, which made it mandatory that all states accept interracial marriage in 1967.

This is not a question of whether one agrees with gay marriage, but rather a question of tolerance, open mindedness and acceptance of the right of two adults to marry whom they choose. Hatred and condemnation is unhealthy and poisonous, and it will not succeed in prevention of the promotion of human rights!

The gay marriage movement will not be stopped by anyone, but will be looked upon in future years as something that should NEVER have been so bitterly opposed, and those who oppose what has happened will be condemned in history as hate mongers, as much as those who promoted slavery, racial segregation, subjugation of women, nativism against immigrant groups, and anti labor actions against the workers of America!

The Senior Citizen Generation In California Politics, And A Future Potential Leader

California, the state which represents the future in American politics to many, has become a state which has government leaders who are senior citizens, who have been part of the political system for decades.

A strongly Democratic state in the past twenty years, California’s top office holders are all in their 70s.

Governor Jerry Brown is 74, and was governor when he was in his mid 30s in 1975.

Senator Diane Feinstein is 79 years old, has been in the Senate for 20 years, and was Mayor of San Francisco in the late 1970s.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is 72, and has been in the House of Representatives since 1986.

Senator Barbara Boxer is 71, and has been in the Senate for 20 years, and was previously a House member since 1982.

When one wonders who the leaders of the future are in California politics, the person who sticks out the most is Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, who is 45, and seen as a likely nominee for Governor in the near future, after his earlier service as Mayor of San Francisco.

Jerry Brown Governor Of California Again 28 Years Later?

It seems more and more likely that former California Governor Jerry Brown (1975-1983), who also ran for the Presidential nomination in 1976, 1980, and 1992, served as Oakland Mayor, and is now Attorney General, will be the next Governor of California at age 71, making him the oldest governor, as well as its youngest governor at age 35!

This is due to the fact that San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has withdrawn from the race in which he was the only announced Democratic candidate! Brown is unlikely to have a divisive primary, and his chances of defeating former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman or two other GOP candidates seem excellent, particularly with Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger extremely unpopular as California struggles through the devastating effect of the recession on the nation’s largest state.

When the biography of Jerry Brown is finally written at some point in the future, it will be a long and fascinating story of how a man could accomplish all of the many roles that Jerry Brown has filled in his long career in politics!

California Politics For 2010 Governorship And Senate Race

California, our largest state with 12 percent of the national population, and deeply affected by the Great Recession, is a microcosm of American politics, and the upcoming races for Governor and Senator are fascinating.

The Republican party will see combative races between relatively unknown conservatives, who have no chance of winning these races, and two well known CEOs of technology companies and both female, but without political experience–Meg Whitman of Ebay for Governor and Carly Fiorina of Hewlett Packard for Senator.

Without any political experience except for backing John McCain for President last year, these two women may have a tough time even being nominated, but even when nominated over their more conservative opponents, the chances of either of them winning a state wide race seem astronomical, despite the tormenting economic conditions faced in the state, where Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is consumed with massive debt problems as he finishes his last year in office in 2010.

Former Governor Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom are locked in a battle, which seems to favor Brown, now the state Attorney General, but highlighted by Bill Clinton’s endorsement of Newsom, primarily because of Brown’s bruising challenge of Clinton’s primary race for President in 1992, demonstrating that Bill Clinton does not forget when people have wronged him. The odds would still be on Brown, despite his flaky background when Governor from 1975-1983, and his three runs for President in 1976, 1980, and 1992. He may very well go from being the youngest Governor in California history to its oldest, returning to the job he had 28-36 years ago by the time he would become Governor again in January 2011. Newsom faces the controversy over supporting and promoting gay marriage, which has now been rejected by California voters in the referendum last November, but is young, vigorous and handsome and a sign of the future in American politics, so cannot be ruled out.

Meanwhile, Senator Barbara Boxer, while controversial since her election to the Senate in 1992, is still very likely to be reelected. What is clear in both the gubernatorial and senatorial races is the reality of possibly the highest amount of money spent ever, except in a presidential race.

Even if the Democrats lose seats in the Senate and some governorships nationally, they are likely to keep the Senate seat of Boxer and gain the gubernatorial seat of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who should be relieved when he no longer has the burden of what is an impossible job–governing California, the eighth largest economy in the world!

Two Corporate Women And California Politics

California, a strong Democratic state, has the interesting scenario of two GOP women, both corporate leaders, running for Governor and Senator in 2010.

Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, is running for Governor, and Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard, is challenging Barbara Boxer for her Senate seat.

Former Governor and present Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom are the leading Democratic candidates for Governor.

It is very hard to imagine either GOP woman winning statewide office, particularly Fiorina, who had a controversial tenure at Hewlett Packard and became a center of criticism as an adviser to John McCain in the 2008 presidential race because of some of her utterances.

But even with the crisis atmosphere in California government, it seems doubtful that the state would hand over governing to Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown in particular, who despite his long and controversial career, remains very popular as a populist type leader in the Golden State.

Certainly, a lot of money and effort will be utilized to try to accomplish what seems to be impossible–two GOP women in top positions in California. Were either or both to accomplish their goals, they would have to be added to the list of possible Republican presidential nominees in 2012 or 2016. But don’t hold your breath! 🙂