“Blue” States

Donald Trump Delusional: North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia All Gone

Donald Trump is totally delusional, running all over the nation, claiming he is winning, when it is assured he will lose big time in tomorrow’s election!

Trump seems to think he will win North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia, but they are all gone!

Trump will have trouble keeping “Red” states, including Arizona, Utah, and even Texas, and is assured to lose North Carolina, which went for Barack Obama in 2008 but for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Trump will have to keep all “Red” states, and win all “Swing” states too, or take a “Blue” state, and anyone who is betting on all that is a fool!

The surging Latino vote and women’s vote insures that Trump will lose Florida, and that will be, effectively, the end of the election before November 8 ends!

Final Projections On Electoral College And Presidential Election Of 2016

Ok, the time has arrived for my final projection on the Presidential election of 2016.

I project that all Barack Obama states will go to Hillary Clinton, except for Iowa–25 of 26 states in 2012–18 “Blue” states plus DC, and 7 “swing” or “purple” states. Iowa would be the only “swing” or “purple” state that would go “Red”.

At the same time, two “Red” or Romney states–North Carolina and Arizona–would swing to the Democrats.

The math means 6 votes are subtracted from Iowa for Clinton, while 26 electoral votes are added to Clinton’s side, with 15 electoral votes from North Carolina and 11 electoral votes from Arizona.

So instead of 332 electoral votes for Obama, the final total for Clinton will be 352, against 186 for Donald Trump as compared to 206 for Romney.

Hillary Clinton would have 27 states to 23 for Trump, as compared to 24 for Romney, so gain of one state for the Democrats.

We shall see how accurate I am in this third round of Presidential Projections after 2008 and 2012.

A more detailed article has been published on History News Network yesterday, and is now posted on this blog as well, on the right hand side!

FBI Director James Comey Complicates Presidential Race, But Will NOT Change Electoral Result!

FBI Director James Comey has put a major “fly in the ointment” by stating publicly that further investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails are in process, specifically those connected to her aide, Huma Abedin, and her estranged husband, former New York Congressman Anthony Weiner, who has become persona non grata due to his sexting with teenage girls.

This has led to outrage by Democrats, and concern that it could affect the results of the Presidential Election of 2016 next week.

But despite some conflicting public opinion polls, one must remember that millions have already voted, and that the 18 “Blue” states and DC are still just about guaranteed to support Clinton, and that only one or two more states are needed to gain 270 electoral votes and the victory.

Most of the “swing” states seem likely to be in Clinton’s camp, and Donald Trump’s many negatives still outweigh the negatives about Hillary Clinton.

So while it is important to make sure voters are encouraged to get out there and vote, this blogger feels comfortable that the Democrats are going to win the Presidency handily!

I will post details and specifics in the coming few days, and also am writing on History News Network this weekend on the election!

Hillary Clinton Hits Home Run In Third Debate, And Trump Disqualifies Himself By Refusing To Say He Would Concede After November 8!

Hillary Clinton hit a home run last night in the third and last Presidential debate, and Donald Trump, as former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele declared, disqualified himself by refusing to say that he would concede graciously and with class and dignity, if he loses the election, which he most certainly will lose.

More than before, Donald Trump has harmed himself and the Republican Party, which looks as if it is in its death knell on the Presidential level, at the least, for a long time, as “Red” states are seemingly turning “Blue”, including Arizona, Utah, North Carolina, Georgie, and even, possibly, Texas.

Also, referring to Hillary Clinton as a “nasty lady” was totally uncalled for, and added to the image that Donald Trump is a totally uncaring, selfish, sore loser!

Many Republicans and conservatives, more than ever, are running away from him, but many will become victims of his destructive, negative campaign, and the conservative and evangelical Christian movement has been permanently damaged.

Trump is such a misogynist, that he cannot tolerate losing to a “girl”, and he will never recover psychologically from the coming massive defeat he will suffer on November 8.

He will go down in history as the worst, most despicable, human being ever to take part in Presidential politics!

Could The Lone Star State Really Go “Blue”? If So, The Republican Party Future Is Over!

Latest polls indicate that the Lone Star State, Texas, with the second highest number of electoral votes, 38, could go for Hillary Clinton this year, tipping that state “Blue” four to eight years before it was expected to tilt, based on growth of Hispanic and Latino voting population.

Donald Trump is ahead only by three points, while Mitt Romney won Texas in 2012 by 16 points, so this is certainly a possibility that Hillary Clinton will win Texas this year.

IF she does, she will have a total electoral landslide, with over 400 electoral votes.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Utah, all “Red” states, are seen as likely to go to the Democrats, but Texas? Unbelievable!

If this happens, then it is possible that the House of Representatives majority will be in play, and the Senate looks much more likely to go to the Democrats, as we near Election Day in 20 days, but with many voters already having participated by mail or in early in person voting.

When and if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican Party is doomed for the long term, and will never win the White House again, until and unless they reorganize and change their attitudes and policies, including on immigration matters!

The Myth That The Election Victory Of Hillary Clinton Is Narrowing: The Misunderstanding Of The Electoral College As Against Polls

It is amazing to this author and blogger that so many Americans seem to think that the election victory of Hillary Clinton is narrowing, according to some public opinion polls.

There is a failure to understand that news media have an investment in building up that there is a real battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, when there is absolutely no realistic chance for Donald Trump to overcome the deficits that he has created for himself over the past 15 months.

The point to be made is that it is the Electoral College and 270 electoral votes that elects our President, and in fact, as George W. Bush reminded us, a candidate can actually lose the national popular vote and still be elected President, as happened in 2000, and also in 1824, 1876, and 1888.

There are 18 “Blue” states and the District of Columbia, which have voted Democratic from 1992 on, and are not about to change. But even if Pennsylvania and Wisconsin somehow surprised us, which is not going to happen in the real world, Hillary Clinton is presently ahead in all of the “Swing” states that Barack Obama won, plus she is even or slightly ahead in a number of “Red” states.

If she wins the likely 242 from the 18 states and DC, all Hillary needs is Florida OR Ohio and Virginia OR a combination of other “Swing” or “Red” states, the latter including, possibly North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Utah, Montana, South Carolina, and even in new polls the states of Texas and Mississippi, and even possibly one vote in Nebraska in the Omaha area, since Nebraska, along with Maine, allows splitting of electoral votes.

To believe that Hillary will somehow lose is totally preposterous, while it can be said that IF the Republican Party had nominated John Kasich, or even possibly, Jeb Bush, all bets would have been off.

And while Gary Johnson will have some effect in some states, the Libertarian nominee is not going to be the spoiler he thought he would be.

And the Green Party and Jill Stein—just forget it, not worth one’s time and attention!

Prediction That Four States Will Decide Presidential Election—Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida–Is That Legitimate?

Many political observers are saying that four states are the true battleground that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2017.

Those states are Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.

The question is whether that belief is legitimate.

This blogger thinks it is much more complicated than those four states, and that two of them–Pennsylvania and Florida—are assured for the Democrats as it is.

Yes, it is true that Pennsylvania west of Philadelphia and east of Pittsburgh is often called “Alabama”, but Pennsylvania has been reliably “Blue” or Democratic for six straight elections from 1992 onward, and that is not likely to change. If “Alabama” really mattered as much as some think, then how did our African American President win the state both in 2008 and 2012? If anything, with the economy far better now than it was in 2008 and 2012, and with Barack Obama’s public opinion rating now at 58 percent, the highest since his first year in office (2009), Pennsylvania is assured to go “Blue” again. Remember, all that is needed is to win the most popular votes to win the electoral votes, not necessary to win a majority, but just a plurality.

Florida, despite being Republican in state elections, went for Barack Obama twice, and now there are many more Puerto Rican citizens who have moved from the island to central Florida in particular, due to the tough economic times in Puerto Rico. Puerto Ricans are citizens who just need to re-register at their new address, and the vast majority of them are Democrats, and therefore now lessen the Cuban influence on the state vote. And many younger Cubans are not automatically conservative or Republican as their elders are. With the I-4 corridor (Central Florida) becoming more likely Democratic, add much of South Florida to the equation (Broward and Palm Beach Counties), and the influence of North Florida and Miami-Dade County (where many immigrants turned citizens from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and other nations in Latin America have migrated and not generally Republicans) are therefore outweighed, and with the better public opinion ratings of Obama added to the mix, the odds are that Florida will go “Blue” again.

Ohio is more difficult, and history tells us that every elected Republican President has won Ohio, so this is truly the crucial state but with Hillary Clinton having the edge in most polls. And one must remember Hillary has a built in edge in “Blue” States, and does not have to win Ohio, while Donald Trump must win it or have no chance to win the White House.

North Carolina went for Obama in 2008 but went “Red” for Mitt Romney in 2012, but polls now indicate that Hillary is favored, but again is not essential for Hillary to win the Presidency.

I would say beyond these four states, there are the states of Georgia and Arizona and Utah, all “Red” states, that indicate close races, with the possibility that they could go “Blue” for this election, and possibly beyond, particularly true for Georgia and Arizona, due to the increase in Hispanic and Latino population and voters.

So Hillary Clinton still has an overwhelming advantage, with eight weeks out from Election Day, to win the Presidency.

Another Nail In The Coffin Of Donald Trump: The Dallas Morning News Editorial Endorsing Hillary Clinton

The Dallas Morning News is a conservative newspaper, which has endorsed Republican Presidential nominees since World War II, but this time they are endorsing Hillary Clinton, and have made it clear that they consider Donald Trump totally unqualified for the Oval Office.

This lack of an endorsement comes as some polls show Texas in play, along with Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, and Utah, all possibly going “Blue” for this election, a development that no one really believes possible, but it seems it could happen.

Donald Trump has made many Republicans and conservatives alienated, with the closest alienation earlier being Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964, which led to a massive defeat, including states that one would have expected to vote Republican.

It is clear that Donald Trump has sealed his fate by his words and actions, along with his corruption and past scandals and failures.

He is ill prepared to be Commander in Chief, has poor judgment and temperament, and his loose mouth is a danger to diplomacy and international order.

The Mountain And Desert West America Going “Blue” For the Future, Following The Pacific Coast States!

There are growing indications that much of the Mountain and Desert West part of America is going “Blue” for the future, following the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.

Already, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are leaning in that direction, and it seems inevitable that Arizona will join that group of states soon, and also Montana may join in that move.

The states of Wyoming, Idaho and Utah are less likely to do so, but growing Hispanic-Latino and Asian American population in much of the Mountain and Desert West makes Democratic gains in both Presidential elections and state elections much more likely over the next decade.

In the controversy over Hispanic-Latino population growth, many might be surprised to learn that Asian American population is growing at a faster clip in the West, and just as Hispanics and Latinos tend to do, Asian Americans–whether Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi–as well as others, tends to vote Democratic.

The nativism appeal of Donald Trump and the general Republican party line is a warning sign to these Asian American groups, and history reminds us of the discrimination visited in the Western states against particularly Chinese and Japanese immigrants and citizens in the American past.

Immigration Turned California From “Red” To “Blue” State, And Is Now Doing It To Nation, Destroying Republican Party’s National Future!

In 1994, California Republican Governor Pete Wilson promoted the passage of Proposition 187, to bar any services to undocumented or illegal immigrants, including education, health care and other social services in the Golden State.

It passed, but divided the state, and ultimately, was declared unconstitutional in 1998, and was never put into effect, but its long term effect was to destroy the Republican Party in California, with the only statewide office holder since then being Arnold Schwarzenegger, himself a celebrity and an immigrant as Governor.

The Republican Party has been decimated in the state legislature and in Congress, and the state has been steadily “Blue” in Presidential elections ever since, even though the state had had a long history of conservative Republicans in office, headed by Ronald Reagan, but including others before and after his time as Governor of the state.

So the Democrats have a great edge in national elections, with the automatic 55 electoral votes of California insuring a Democratic advantage for the Presidency.

But the Republican Party nationally has not learned from this, and instead has alienated both Hispanic and Latino Americans, and also Asian Americans, and in the last election, both groups have gone Democratic with more than 70 percent support, and probably higher in this next Presidential election.

There is a very good chance that North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, and even eventually, Texas, will go “Blue” either this year or certainly by 2020 or 2024, and when that happens, the Republican Party nationally is doomed in its efforts to win the White House for the long term.

So Donald Trump’s nativism is the disaster equivalent to what Pete Wilson did a generation ago to the largest state in the Union.

The old saying is: “As California goes, so goes the nation!” Nothing more true can be said!