“Bellwether” State

“Coattails” Vs. “Split Ticket”: Which Will Occur In November?

Now with two weeks to the election, speculation is rising that Hillary Clinton may win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, and that she might have “coattails”, help to carry in a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The Senate part of this equation seems very likely, but to gain the House of Representatives majority will be very difficult, with the Republicans having a 30 seat majority right now, greater than at any point since 1928.

The last time a President coming into office had the effect of switching both houses of Congress was 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower brought in Republican majorities, which, however, were lost by 1954.

After that, the House of Representatives did not fall into Republican hands again for 40 years, until 1994!

The Senate, however, did fall into Republican hands with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, only to be reversed in 1986.

So best bet is that the House majority will be knocked down a great amount, maybe 20 seats gain, but short of a majority for the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate seems likely to turn over, and Hillary Clinton could help to switch the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, as well as Indiana, and keeping Nevada, the only contested Democratic seat, meaning a eight state gain for the Democrats, from 46 seats to 54, and including the likely defeat of Marco Rubio and John McCain.

Missouri, a less likely state for Hillary Clinton, but within reach, could also see Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee, defeat Senator Roy Blunt, but not seen as such, unless Missouri reverts to being a bellwether state which it was for a century, but not so in 2012.

Iowa and Ohio seem more likely to keep Chuck Grassley and Rob Portman, even if Hillary Clinton wins their states.

So the idea of a “split ticket”, only 11 percent in recent election years, seems only likely in those two Midwestern states, and maybe in Missouri and Indiana, but Hillary likely to carry other states listed above and help to make the Senate Democratic majority.

Missouri Presidential History, And Poll Showing Clinton Leads Trump! Will Missouri Be Again a Bellwether State?

Missouri, the “Show Me” State, the state of President Harry Truman, has been a bellwether state since 1904.

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri voted with the winner every time except 1956, when Adlai Stevenson defeated Dwight D. Eisenhower by 4,000 votes.

In 2008, like in 1956, they voted for the losing Presidential nominee, John McCain, over Barack Obama, but again by only about 4,000 votes.

In 2012, however, the bellwether reputation was harmed when Mitt Romney won over Barack Obama by 259,000 votes!

Presently, Hillary Clinton is shown as leading Donald Trump for the election in Missouri, so if they end up as the nominees of their parties, and the polls stay consistent, then Missouri will return to being a bellwether state, assuming that Clinton wins the Presidency, which is highly likely!

Missouri is not considered a “swing” state, but it could be part of the winning party’s majority for the 26th out of the last 29 national elections for the Presidency!

Missouri, The Bellwether State For A Century, No Longer That!

Missouri, the state created under a compromise in 1820, became the bellwether state in Presidential elections from 1904 to 2004.

Missouri, always considered a Midwestern state, was one of the border states that did NOT join the Confederate States of America during the Civil War, despite having slavery.

Missouri, with the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, and Springfield, trending Democratic as most cities did, however saw the rural parts of the state trending Republican as the years went by, and those three cities now represent less percentage of the population than they did in 1990.

So the evangelical Christian Right has become much more of the dominant influence in the rural areas, and Barack Obama could not win Missouri either in 2008 or 2012, and lost by a substantial margin in 2012.

It is now clear that Missouri is trending Republican more and more, and is much more like Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, than it is like its neighbors of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota!

Therefore, it is clear that Missouri is now a Southern, rather than Midwestern, state, and that the lack of population growth in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Springfield, together less than 20 percent of the state population, will make it difficult for any Democrat to win the state in a Presidential election.

The only reason for Claire McCaskill holding her Senate seat and Jay Nixon being Governor is their ability to come across as a conservative Democrat, and to have GOP opponents who are not well liked by the Missouri population.

So the bellwether state of Missouri is no more!

Missouri Senate Race Could Lead To Obama Victory In “Bellwether” State

Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this year’s Senate races, but the flap and controversy over the remarks of Republican nominee Todd Akin six days ago has led to McCaskill, who was trailing Akin, to take a nine point lead in the latest polling.

IF McCaskill can continue to keep a lead over Akin, and nine points is a massive edge at this point, 73 days out, then President Obama has the prospect of carrying Missouri, which he lost to John McCain by about 4,000 votes in 2008.

Remember again that Missouri has been a “bellwether” state since the beginning of the 20th century, with only 1956 and 2008 having the Presidential winner lose Missouri, so it would be very welcome to Obama to win the 10 electoral votes of the “Show Me” state in November, and improve his chances of winning the Electoral College, which now are excellent, even without Missouri!