The Senate in 2010 Elections: Likely Scenario

When one examines the US Senate, now 58 Democrats and 41 Republicans with Al Franken (D) likely taking over the Minnesota Senate seat after Norm Coleman has his day in court, it looks like a projection of the 2010 Senate races puts the Democrats in a very good situation.  It is likely that the Democrats will gain a few more seats in the next election with the news that four Republican Senators will retire–Kit Bond of Missouri, Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, and George Voinovich of Ohio. 

At the same time, the appointments of senators by the Governors of Illinois and New York may actually endanger Democratic control of those seats.  Neither Roland Burris nor Kristen Gillebrand will have an easy time winning over the likely challengers they will face in primaries in 2010, and that makes it possible that a strong Republican nominee might grab those seats.  Colorado’s new senator, Michael Bennet, seems likely also to have challengers in the primary, particularly because he has no political experience and was a surprise choice as well. 

So under the circumstances, while the Democrats should gain seats, there will be an element of uncertainty due to the gubernatorial appointments that came about due to the elevation of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Ken Salazar to leadership of the Democratic national administration. Only more reason to pursue Senator Russ Feingold’s proposal of a constitutional amendment that would set up special elections for vacant Senate seats, taking that power away from state governors and putting it back in the hands of the people of the states.

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