Donald Trump is clearly in free fall after a disastrous week.
The Supreme Court, including conservatives, and a Trump appointee, went against him on Gay and Transgender employment rights, and on the issue of Deferred Action For Childhood Arrivals (DACA), leading Trump to complain that the Supreme Court does not “like” him.
John Bolton publishing a book demonstrating that Trump has no interest in any policy, and just about reelection, infuriated Trump.
Mary Trump, his niece, is about to come out with a tell all about how horrible Trump is, even with his own father who gave him his start, once the elder Trump developed Alzheimers.
Donald Trump is bringing more attention to his own corrupt dealings in New York, by firing the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, promoting a new investigation by the House Judiciary Committee.
All public opinion polls show Trump in a massive landslide, and that includes the Fox News Polls.
And finally, the disastrous Tulsa rally led to a very small crowd, only about one third full, but also increasing the likelihood that many of the attendees might get the COVID-19 virus and spread it to others.
John Bolton Didn’t Tell the Truth When It Mattered Most
Instead, he kept his mouth shut until he could cash in on a book deal.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/06/18/john-bolton-didnt-tell-the-truth-when-it-mattered-most/
“Real Clear Politics†and “Five Thirty Eight†have recently reported the average from polls for the 2020 U.S. Popular Vote is (whole-number estimate) Democratic +9.
From the latter, the “2020 Generic Congressional Voteâ€â€”for U.S. House—is Democratic +8.5. (It includes May 2–3 “Politicoâ€/Morning Consult, which is Democratic +5; exclude it and the average, from the period of May 2–June 16, is Democratic +9.33.)
“Real Clear Politics†has the U.S. Popular Vote margin an average Democratic +9.5.
Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
“FiveThirtyEight,†effective June 20, has the U.S. Popular Vote margin an average Democratic +8.9.
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
Since 1960, but with exception of 1992, prevailing Democrats have tended to carry +22 states in excess of their U.S. Popular Vote margin.
From the past 15 presidential election cycles, 1960–2016, here were those applicable:
ELECTION 1960
• U.S. President: John Kennedy — Democratic pickup (following two-term-limited Republican incumbent Dwight Eisenhower)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+0.16
• Number of Carried States: 22
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +22
ELECTION 1964
• U.S. President: Lyndon Johnson — Democratic hold (full-term election the year following the assassination of John Kennedy)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+22.58
• Number of Carried States: 44
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +21/+22
ELECTION 1976
• U.S. President: Jimmy Carter — Democratic pickup (unseated Republican incumbent Gerald Ford)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+2.06
• Number of Carried States: 23
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +21
• Consideration: Narrowly missed flipping Oregon (margin of –0.16)
ELECTION 1992
• Winner: Bill Clinton — Democratic pickup (unseated Republican incumbent George Bush)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+5.56
• Number of Carried States: 32
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +26/+27
ELECTION 1996
• Winner: Bill Clinton — Democratic hold (re-election)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+8.52
• Number of Carried States: 31
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +22/+23
ELECTION 2008
• Winner: Barack Obama — Democratic pickup (following two-term-limited Republican incumbent George W. Bush)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+7.26
• Number of Carried States: 28
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +21
• Consideration: Narrowly missed flipping Missouri (margin of –0.13)
ELECTION 2012
• Winner: Barack Obama — Democratic hold (re-election)
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: D+3.86
• Number of Carried States: 26
• Carried States in Excess of U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +22
Right now, a source like “Five Thirty Eight†has presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden winning a pickup of the presidency with a popular-vote margin of +9 and carrying up to 28 states. Pickups from Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (tipping-point state from 2016), Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio—no mention of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and/or Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—while indicating Iowa and Texas as oh-so-narrow Republican holds. (Less than a full percentage point with each.)
At this point, I think a number of sources saying Joe Biden leads nationally by around +10 percentage points—a little less, a little more—are not going to be referencing historic voting pattern. That is not their purpose. But, this hasn’t stopped from doing some extrapolating.
If a 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency is a popular-vote margin of +9 or +10, and the party’s 1960–2016 pattern basically holds, this will involve an estimated 30, 31, 32 states.
In citing those which could come in, for the 2020 Democrats, at Nos. 31 and 32, here is the most recent information from “Five Thirty Eightâ€: Montana (Republican +5; from Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver, 04.10.2020–04.27.2010); South Carolina (Republican +8; with polls averaged by “Five Thirty Eightâ€); and Kansas (Republican +9.6; with polls averaged by “Five Thirty Eightâ€). In 2016, the margins in those three states were: +14.27 (South Carolina); +20.23 (Montana); and +20.42 (Kansas). Each of them have scheduled U.S. Senate races considered surprisingly competitive—with Montana most ripe for a Democratic pickup.
We need more state polls.
Fire marshal estimated 6,200 at Dump’s rally. LOL!
The Question is: So what does our reality-tv show mystery gameshow Host pull off next? How about another 9/11? It worked great last time.
We have virus cases rising in our neck of the woods. It’s because too many stubborn people are not wearing face coverings, are not maintaining social distancing, and not attending to hygiene as diligently as is needed to help manage transmission of the virus. These stubborn people no following health guidelines makes me very angry!
Americans Don’t Need to Love Biden to Vote for Him
Trump keeps making the case stronger for someone who can simply get the job done.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/06/22/americans-dont-need-to-love-biden-to-vote-for-him/