It is time for three Presidential contenders to give up their candidacies and run instead for the US Senate in their states, and help create a Democratic Senate majority for the 117th Congress of 2021-2022.
Former Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado; Montana Governor Steve Bullock; and former Texas Congressman from El Paso, Beto O’Rourke, have no real opportunity to continue further, although O’Rourke has qualified for the third Democratic debate in Houston in September. Despite that, and his courageous and outstanding reaction to the El Paso Massacre, it is clear that he is NOT going to progress any further to the top tier of candidates.
Bullock is fascinating, and did well in the second Presidential debate, but he came in too late, and has no traction, despite his being quite impressive.
And Hickenlooper, well, he is a massive dud, and apparently is leaving the race later today.
All three would be wonderful Senators, and the Democrats need a minimum gain of four seats, or three, if the Vice President in the next term is a Democrat, and can organize the Senate majority.
If the Democrats win the Presidency, but fail to win the Senate majority, then nothing will be accomplished, as Mitch McConnell or his successor as Senate Majority Leader, will bottleneck any agenda of any Democrat, whether it be Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Pete Buttigieg, the most likely choices at this point to be serious contenders for the Democratic nomination for President.
Ronald writes, “…the Democrats need a minimum gain of four seats, or three, if the Vice President in the next term is a Democrat, and can organize the Senate majority.â€
Yes, the U.S. Senate Democrats head into the 2020 election cycle with 47 in their caucus and are in need of a gain of +4 to win a majority-control pickup.
Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, there have been four U.S. presidential elections in which one or both house of Congress switched parties for a new majority control. The party which won that pickup also prevailed at the presidential level. This occurred in 1932 (Democratic pickups of U.S. President and U.S. Senate); 1948 (Democratic hold of U.S. President and majority-control pickups of U.S. Senate and U.S. House); 1952 (Republican pickups of U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House); and 1980 (Republican pickups of U.S. President and U.S. Senate).
The 2020 Democrats want the same outcome as 1932 Franklin Roosevelt and 1980 Ronald Reagan. But, of course, Reagan never had same-party control of the U.S. House. So, it is closer to FDR. (But, to unseat Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, the 2020 Democrats need for Trump to parallel 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter from Elections 1976 and 1980—the last occurrence in which voters switched the White House party in two consecutive election cycles.)
The 2020 Democrats will not pull this off without a truly change candidate—as was the cases with FDR and Reagan. (This election cycle does involve having to unseat an incumbent U.S. president.)
In the meantime, supposing 2020 does deliver Democratic pickups of U.S. President and U.S. Senate, I give consideration to the following:
1. U.S. Popular Vote margin. It will need to be +4, at a minimum. That would win the presidency with the 2016 map (a mathematical 232 electoral votes) with the following 2020 pickups: Michigan (cum. 248), Pennsylvania (cum. 268), Wisconsin (cum. 278, and again the tipping point state), Florida (cum. 307), Nebraska #02 (cum. 308), Arizona (cum. 319), and North Carolina (cum. 334). This would be comparable to the re-election of Barack Obama, who carried 26 states, plus District of Columbia, with 332 electoral votes.
2. Same-party coattails. In Elections 2004, 2008, and 2012, approximately 80 percent of the states with scheduled U.S. Senate seats carried for the party which won a given state at the presidential level. For the first time in U.S. history, the presidential election of 2016 saw a full 100-percent coattails outcome. I don’t assume that will get repeated in 2020. But, I will recognize some potential.
3. Involved states. Due to being aligned to the Republicans since 1980, Alabama will likely flip its Democratic-held U.S. Senate seat. (Democrat Doug Jones would have to eke out a win by less than +3 while a pickup winning Democrats comes within single digits in Alabama.) That would set back the Democrats at 46, with a need to win a net gain of +5. Where that would come from, with a pickup of the presidency, is with two states in the party’s column from 2016—Colorado and Maine—followed by states that are a combination of bellwether or ones emerging. (I perceive Republicans Cory Gardner as a goner and Susan Collins—no longer in the good graces of her constituents—on borrowed time; she may do internal polling and make a decision to not seek a possible fifth term.) Look to North Carolina, which has been on the same-party coattails pattern since 1972. Look to Arizona, given its trend away from the GOP and its rank as the Democrats’ No. 25 best-performed state from 2016. This would get the Senate to 50–50.
4. Target Margins: +4; with +5 even better. If the 2020 Democrats flip the presidency, they would be better off winning the U.S. Popular Vote by not +4 but at least +5. That +5 would help deliver an additional pickup of Georgia for 350 electoral votes, yes, but would also make its scheduled U.S. Senate race another pickup opportunity. And that could be the 51st seat for a new Democratic majority. Going up in increments of +1—in the U.S. Popular Vote—is even better. +6 would deliver Iowa (a Republican-held U.S. Senate seat on the schedule) and Maine #02; +7 would flip Texas (a Republican-held U.S. Senate seat on the schedule). This is important because, in numerous cases, people have trended away from ticket-splitting their votes—and the margins for a state that carries for the same party at both levels can often be quite tight. Examples: the 2016 Democratic U.S. Senate pickups of Illinois’s Tammy Duckworth and New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan while their states were carried by losing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Illinois gave margins of +16.88 (Hillary) and +15.08 (Duckworth). New Hampshire gave margins of +0.36 (Hillary) and +0.14. (Their margins were spreads of 1.80 percentage points, from Illinois, and 0.22 percentage points, from New Hampshire.)
5. Mind the House. The U.S. House isn’t being addressed. Since 2000, margins spread in U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President and U.S. House have been as follows: 0.93 (in 2000), 0.18 (in 2004), 3.34 (in 2008), 2.70 (in 2012), and 3.17 (in 2016). The 2018 Democrats won a new majority pickup of the U.S. House with a popular-vote margin of +8.56. That level a margin, for the presidency, has not been experienced since the 1996 re-election of Bill Clinton. Winning at just about that level—which means flipping the presidency—would be necessary for the 2020 Democrats to not lose a single party-held U.S. House seat. It would not be easy to predict how many net losses. (Between 2014 and 2016, the U.S. House went from Republican +5.70 to Republican +1.08, and that yielded 2016 Democratic pickups of +6 seats despite the presidency having flipped from Democratic to Republican.) In midterm elections, when a minority party wins over a new majority off the opposition White House party, they tend to gain +4 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. It helps explain why the Democrats shifted their 2016 net loss of –1.08 to +8.56—a 2016-to-2018 national shift of +9.64 percentage points—to win a net gain of +40 seats. (Heading into that election, they needed +23 for a new majority.) If the 2020 Democrats fail to unseat Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump (whose popular-vote margin would anywhere between –3 to +3), they could perceivably lose around 10 seats in the U.S. House. (And, if the 2020 Democrats fail to flip the presidency, that can also reduce their current numbers in the U.S. Senate.)
Again, D, a wonderful analysis, and I thank you!
Of course, as time goes on, I will discuss various Senate races, as the Senate is my second passion, after the Presidency!
Ronald,
You’re welcome! (Of course.)
I wanted to go ahead post that information.
After today, I will be taking a bit of a break. My birthday is tomorrow, Friday, August 16, and I also want to take a little summer break.
Have a wonderful Birthday, D, and enjoy your time off, and I welcome you back whenever you are ready, as you are a real asset!
Haha! Trump fails to crack 40 percent in any matchup with a potential 2020 opponent in a new Fox News poll.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/16/troubling-signs-trump-this-new-fox-news-poll/