Reality Of Democratic Presidential Contenders: They MUST Win Home Or Regional State Primary Or Caucus To Survive To Later Battles

With up to two dozen or more Democrats as Presidential contenders, history tells us that such candidates MUST win their home or regional state primary or caucus in 2020 to survive to later battles.

As a result, we will see winnowing down of candidates during the month of February and early March 2020, after some candidates drop out as a result of a poor performance (by comparison and journalistic judgment) at upcoming debates being held monthly starting in late June and the early primaries and caucuses.

So IF Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren fail to win New Hampshire and or Massachusetts. their candidacies will be effectively over.

So IF Amy Klobuchar, or Pete Buttigieg, or Tim Ryan fail to win Iowa or Minnesota or Michigan or Ohio or Missouri, their candidacies are dead in the water.

So if Julian Castro or Beto O’Rourke fail to win Texas, they will be knocked out of the race for the White House.

So if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker cannot win in South Carolina, with its heavily African American Democratic registration, their Presidential candidacies are doomed.

So if Kamala Harris, or Eric Swalwell, or Tulsi Gabbard, or Jay Inslee, or John Hickenlooper fail to win California or Nevada or Washington, their campaigns will effectively end.

All of the states mentioned above have their primaries or caucuses taking place between February 3 and March 10.

The state of New York will also have its primaries in either February or early March, still undetermined, and Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand would be expected to win that state in order to survive for a longer period.

Notice that the one “national” candidate who does not need to win any specific state or group of states to be viable is former Vice President Joe Biden, who could lose some, win some, but would likely have greater staying power in the race than anyone else.

So by the “Ides Of March” (March 15 or two days later, March 17, when Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Colorado have had their primaries), we are likely to know who the Democratic nominee is for President.

2 comments on “Reality Of Democratic Presidential Contenders: They MUST Win Home Or Regional State Primary Or Caucus To Survive To Later Battles

  1. D April 16, 2019 4:23 pm

    It is mainly one’s home state.

    Barack Obama, with winning the 2008 Democratic nomination for president of the United States, carried his home state Illinois but not neighboring states Indiana and Kentucky. (Those were carried by Hillary Clinton.) Twenty-four years earlier, Walter Mondale, with winning the 1984 Democratic nomination for president of the United States, carried his home state Minnesota but not neighboring states Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota. (Those were carried by Gary Hart.) Eight years prior, Jimmy Carter, with winning the 1976 Democratic nomination for president of the United States, carried his home state Georgia but not neighboring states Alabama and South Carolina. (Those were carried by George Wallace.)

    This is even true on the Republican side with example of 2008 general-election nominee John McCain. In the primaries, he carried his home state Arizona. However, he did not win Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. (Those were carried by Mitt Romney.) This was also the case with 1996 general-election nominee Bob Dole. He carried his home state Kansas. But, he did not win neighboring state Missouri. (That was carried by Pat Buchanan.)

    Emphasis is on home state.

    Since all 50 states started participating in the presidential primaries in 1976 (Democratic) and 1980 (Republican), all party nominees won their home states. This was true of (asterisk indicates general-election winner): 1976 * Jimmy Carter (D–Georgia; pickup winner in the general election); 1980 Carter and * Ronald Reagan (R–California; pickup); 1984 * Reagan and Walter Mondale (D–Minnesota); 1988 * George Bush (R–Texas) and Michael Dukakis (D–Massachusetts); 1992 Bush and * Bill Clinton (D–Arkansas; pickup); 1996 * Clinton and Bob Dole (R–Kansas); 2000 * George W. Bush (R–Texas; pickup) and Al Gore (D–Tennessee); 2004 * Bush and John Kerry (D–Massachusetts); 2008 John McCain (R–Arizona) and * Barack Obama (D–Illinois; pickup); 2012 * Obama and Mitt Romney (R–Massachusetts); and 2016 * Donald Trump (R–New York; pickup) and Hillary Clinton (D–New York).

    The excessive number of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates—declared or not—you can write off are the ones who you figure will not have the ability to carry in the primaries their home states. Effective April 16, 2019, I will start with the likes of California’s Eric Swalwell, Marianne Williamson, and Joe Sanberg; Texas’s Julian Castro; Florida’s Wayne Messam; New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Yang, and Bill de Blasio; Ohio’s Tim Ryan; Georgia’s Stacey Abrams; New Jersey’s Cory Booker; Virginia’s Terry McAuliffe; Washington’s Jay Inslee; Massachusetts’s Seth Moulton; Maryland’s John Delaney; Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar; Colorado’s John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennett; Montana’s Steve Bullock; and Alaska’s Mike Gravel.

    I will mention that, if any of the following candidates ends up the 2020 Democratic nominee for president of the United States, the home state will get carried. Alphabetically by home state, the ones who spring to mind are: California’s Kamala Harris; Delaware’s Joe Biden; Hawaii’s Tulsi Gabbard; Indiana’s Pete Buttigieg; Massachusetts’s Elizabeth Warren; Texas’s Beto O’Rourke; and Vermont’s Bernie Sanders. And, as a reminder, any of them who does NOT get the nomination—well that candidate may or may not end up with carriage of his or her home state. But, for the candidate who ends up with the nomination will obviously carry plenty more than just his or her home state.

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