The Democrats have a massive challenge ahead, somehow to reelect all ten “Red State” Democratic Senators, but also, at the same time, to gain at least two additional seats and have a majority of 51 or more in the US Senate.
This is crucial to stop the worst of Trump Administration policies, and to insure that any future Supreme Court or Circuit or District Court judgeships not be as extreme right wing, as are occurring now.
Six seats seem open to switching to the Democrats:
Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and where Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is ahead of three potential Republican opponents.
Nevada, where Dean Heller is the most endangered Republican Senator up for reelection, challenged by Congresswoman Jacky Rosen, and she has been ahead of Heller in many public opinion polls.
Tennessee, where Bob Corker is retiring, and former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is seen as ahead of Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn.
Texas, where Ted Cruz is gaining a serious challenge from Congressman Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, and O’Rourke has raised more money than Cruz, who famously is disliked by all his fellow Senators by the testimony of many Democrats and even Republican colleagues.
Mississippi, where Thad Cochran retired suddenly due to bad health, and will have a special election to fill the seat, temporarily filled, and the hope that an upset is possible, as occurred in Alabama last fall, with Doug Jones taking a normal Republican seat. Mike Espy, former Congressman, Secretary of Agriculture for two years under Bill Clinton, and an African American, is seen as having some chance to take the seat, although not seen as likely to win, but a surprise could occur.
Mississippi, where Roger Wicker faces a challenge from state legislator David Baria, Minority Leader of the state legislature, who is seen as having a reasonable chance to win.
The first three of these six seats seem likely to go to the Democrats, which if true, would allow the loss of one of the ten “Red State” Democrats, and still have 51 seats, but that does not leave much room for error.
If all six seats, magically, went Democratic, and no loss of any of the “Red State” Democrats in November occurred, in theory, the Democrats could have as many as 55 seats, but that is clearly a result with very low potential to occur.
One more issue: New Mexico, where Democrat Martin Heinrich should have no trouble winning, but if former Republican Governor and 2016 Libertarian Party Presidential nominee Gary Johnson decides to run for the Senate, creating a three way race, it could put Heinrich’s seat in jeopardy.
So the challenge for Democrats to gain a Senate majority of 51 votes is clouded by overwhelming challenges!
Following Ronald’s blog entry, “Donald Trump Reversal A Political Ploy As Republicans Run Scared For November Elections†(June 21, 2018; https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34033 ), I wrote about the U.S. House. I concluded that, after Republicans won the 2016 U.S. Popular Vote by +1.08, the 2018 Democrats will need a national shift of +8 percentage points, and win the U.S. Popular Vote by a margin of +7, in order to yield a sufficient number of pickups to flip the U.S. House.
Following Ronald’s blog entry, “Crucial Gubernatorial Races That Could Affect The Future In Reapportionment Of Seats In Congress And State Legislatures After 2020 Census†(August 1, 2018; https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34407 ), I wrote about the gubernatorial elections. I concluded that, after Republicans won the 2014 U.S. Popular Vote by +4.06, the 2018 Democrats need a national shift of at least +7, but what would be better is a shift of +8, and they should target winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 in order to yield a sufficient number of pickups for a new majority count of governorships.
I posted this because I think it isn’t a bad idea to try to gauge the potential for however many pickups for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and Governor. I have to look to past performance to get a good idea for the following: Based on past history, comparing from the previous comparable election cycle, how many seat gains were won an average for each nationally shifted percentage point? At the U.S. House level, about +3.5 seats get flipped for each nationally shifted percentage point. At the gubernatorial level, they number +1.5. As for the U.S. Senate…
Looking at the past U.S. Senate elections—and with the timing for majority-control pickups (Republican or Democratic)—it is a little tricky and detailed. Here in 2018, California is now a system having a general-election matchup pitting not Republican-vs.-Democratic candidates but for the two people who drew the most primaries votes. There is no regard for party.
Since and counting 1946, there have been six midterm elections which flipped the U.S. Senate to the White House opposition party. In the other three election cycles, the timing was with presidential elections, with the winning party also being the same one which prevailed for U.S. President. Since 2018 is a midterm election, I will compare previous midterms.
***** ***** *****
From 1946 to 2014, here were the midterm elections; their national shifts (from the previous cycle); the number of pickups; the average number of seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point. (Note: * is the party pickup winning year.)
• 1940 (D) to * 1946 (R): R+11.41 national shift; divided by +11 pickups; an average gain, with each nationally shifted percentage point, of +1.03
• 1948 (D) to * 1954 (D): D–1.1 national shift; divided by +2 pickups; an average gain, with each nationally shifted percentage point, of +2.2
• 1980 (R) to * 1986 (D): D–4.39 national shift; divided by +8 pickups; an average gain, with each nationally shifted percentage point, of +0.54
• 1988 (D) to * 1994 (R): R+11.82; divided by +12 pickups; an average gain, with each nationally shifted percentage point, of +1.31
• 2000 (R) to * 2006 (D): D+10.83; divided by +6 pickups; an average gain, with each nationally shifted percentage point, of +1.80
• 2008 (D) to *2014 (R): R+14.20; divided by +9 pickups; an average gain, with each nationally shifted percentage point, of +1.57
*** MATH ***
• 1946, 1954, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2014: six elections
• 1.03 + 2.2 + 0.54 + 1.31 + 1.80 + 1.57 = 8.45
• 8.45 divided by 6 = +1.40 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point
***** ***** CONCLUSION ***** *****
The win a 2018 majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, the Democratic Party should be able to prevail with a national margin of +13.25. A whole-number estimate of +13 may be enough. But, of course, a margin of +14 would be better.
Here is where it gets tricky.
If the route to winning over a new majority conforms to 1994, 2006, and 2012, the minority party [Democratic Party] won’t lose a single party-held seat before flipping over a sufficient number. The Democrats, currently with 49, need +2.
What I wonder about are the likely 2012-to-2018 margins increases and decreases.
Here were the margins for the 2012 Democrats, including two independents who caucus with the party. They emerged with a majority 55. Pickup winners are noted with an *.
2012 U.S. SENATE — DEMOCRATIC HOLD [55]
• Republican 42.36%
• Democratic 54.18% (Margin: +11.82; Pickups: +2)
2012 U.S. SENATE — DEMOCRATIC
• Vermont +46.17
• New York +45.86
• Delaware +37.47
• Minnesota +34.70
• Rhode Island +29.84
• Maryland +29.65
• Hawaii +25.20
• California +25.04
• West Virginia +24.10
• * Maine +22.15
• Washington +20.90
• Michigan +20.82
• New Jersey +19.45
• Missouri +15.70
• Florida +13.00
[U.S. Popular Vote: +11.82]
• Connecticut +11.75
• Pennsylvania +9.10
• * Massachusetts +7.55
• Ohio +6.00
• Virginia +5.91
• (51) * Indiana +5.73 — Tipping Point!
• (51) New Mexico +5.73 — Tipping Point!
• (53) Wisconsin +5.55
• (54) Montana +3.72
• (55) North Dakota +0.90
2012 U.S. SENATE — REPUBLICAN
• Wyoming +54.00
• Utah +35.33
• Tennessee +34.48
• Mississippi +16.61
• Texas +15.84
• * Nebraska +15.54
• Arizona +2.98
• Nevada +1.16
If the Democrats flip the U.S. Senate, my guess is about 17 to 20 will overperform their 2012-to-2018 margins. I’m estimating between 70 to 80 percent of party-held seats will overperform. Likely to underperform: West Virginia, Missouri, Florida, and Indiana. (North Dakota’s re-nominated Heidi Heitkamp, in a tossup race, has little choice but to overperform.) Remainder may be a small number who hit a ceiling in 2012.
Under the premise of a 2018 majority pickup of the U.S. Senate for the Democratic Party, nearly all of the eight Republican-held seats would underperform. The one I sense may overperform is Mitt Romney, following the retiring incumbent Orrin Hatch, in Utah. (A second may be Nebraska’s Deb Fischer.) One of these states ranks in the Top 10 for population: Texas. Incumbent Ted Cruz (+15.78), who won the Lone Star State +0.06 above presidential nominee Mitt Romney (+15.78), is severely underperforming in the polls. That race is rated a Lean Republican hold—indicating a roughly 10-point Democratic shift just in Texas. For Top 20 populous states Arizona and Tennessee, the latter is rated a Democratic pickup while the former is polling with a conspicuous Democratic shift. The retiring Republican incumbent Bob Corker (whose 2012 re-election margin was +34.48 to Mitt Romney’s +20.38) is followed by a race between would-be Republican successor Marsha Blackburn vs. Democratic nominee and former governor Phil Bredesen. It is rated a tossup.
It is difficult to see a national 2012-to-2018 shift for U.S. Senate—and on the watch of Republican incumbent president Donald Trump—ending up a national Republican shift. So, my guess is that it will get a Democratic shift. When you put this all together, it is not difficult to imagine the 2012 Democrats shifting sufficiently to also yield the pickups of the two seats they need to flip for a new majority.
Again, D, all I can say is WOW!
You really, constantly, make a major contribution to this blog with your detailed and insightful analyses!
Thanks so much as always!
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