There are a number of crucial gubernatorial races coming up in November, which could dramatically change the future of American politics, and change the reapportionment of seats that comes about after the Census of 2020.
In Florida, Gwen Graham, the daughter of well respected former Governor and Senator Bob Graham, is now leading the Democratic primary in the polls, and she could affect the beginning of the return of Democrats to influence in the state legislature and in Congress, and is far preferable to Congressman Ron DeSantis, the favored Republican candidate backed by Donald Trump.
In Georgia, the Democrats have nominated Stacey Abrams, who has been the minority leader in the state House of Representatives, and is African American, against Trump endorsed Brian Kemp, the Georgia Secretary of State, who is extreme on gun rights.
In Ohio, Richard Cordray, the former head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and past Attorney General and State Treasurer, is the Democratic nominee for Governor, and is challenged by Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, former US Senator, Lieutenant Governor, and Congressman.
In Illinois, the Democratic nominee for Governor is J B Pritzker, a venture capitalist, entrepreneur, and philanthropist, competing against incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner, also a venture capitalist and entrepreneur, who has had a contentious relationship with the Democratic controlled state legislature.
In California, Gavin Newsom, the Lieutenant Governor, is the Democratic nominee for Governor, running against Republican John Cox, a businessman, attorney and political activist backed by Donald Trump.
In Pennsylvania, sitting Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is heavily favored to win reelection, over Republican nominee and state representative Scott Wagner.
In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott is challenged by former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, with Abbott strongly favored to be reelected, but thought that she would be a strong challenge to Abbott.
These seven large states in population could see six out of seven victories for the Democrats, all but Texas, in all likelihood.
With Democrats having only 16 state Governors, but 36 gubernatorial elections coming up, the odds of a majority or more of state governors being Democrats in 2019 is considered a likelihood, and would allow the Democrats to have a great influence on reapportionment and gerrymandering in the next decade.
FLIP FOR A NEW GUBERNATORIAL MAJORITY?
2018 DEMOCRATS SHOULD TARGET +4.
In Ronald’s “New Quinnipiac and Marist Polls and Other Polls Show Sharp Turn Against Donald Trump in Battleground Midwest States†( https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34337 ), I addressed specific states which could be instrumental in delivering a 2018 majority pickup count of governorships to the Democrats.
In 2014, the Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for Governor, by +4.09 percentage points. The gubernatorial tipping point state was Michigan, in which Republican incumbent Rick Snyder won re-election by +4.06, and five states’ Republican winners received lower margins as the party ended up with 31 governorships.
In 2018, the Democrats, currently at 16, need a pickup of +10 to win over a new majority count. In order to yield that net gain of +10, what does this political party need for its U.S. Popular Vote margin?
Following were the averages over the last three midterm elections—1994, 2006, and 2010—in which the governorships flipped majorities. (Please keep in mind: Post-1994, Democrats had gubernatorial majorities only from 2007 to 2010. That period coincided with their majorities with the U.S. House.)
1990 GOVERNOR
• Republican 44.88%
• Democratic 49.86% (+4.98) — Winner!
1994 GOVERNOR
• Republican 53.69% (+12.14) — Pickup Winner! (Net gain: +11)
• Democratic 41.55%
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2002 GOVERNOR
• Republican 49.66% (+5.05) — Winner!
• Democratic 44.61%
2006 GOVERNOR
• Republican 44.18%
• Democratic 50.29% (+6.11) — Pickup Winner! (Net gain: +6)
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2010 GOVERNOR
• Republican 47.75% (+0.73) — Pickup Winner! (Net gain: +6)
• Democratic 47.03%
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I compared shifts from 1990 to 1994; from 2002 to 2006; and from 2006 to 2010. How many governorships flipped with each nationally shifted percentage point? Here is a quick summary:
• 1990 to 1994 Shift: R+17.12 divided by +11 = 1.55
• 2002 to 2006 Shift: D+11.16 divided by +6 = 1.86
• 2006 to 2010 Shift: R+6.84 divided by +6 = 1.14
The average percentage points nationally shifted was +11.70.
The number of governorships flipped, with each nationally shifted percentage point, was +1.51.
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Going by that average of +1.51, here is my estimate of that potential for 2018:
The National Margin (after –04.09) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.09 x 1.51 avg.)
• R+3 = +1 [seat gains]
• R+2 = +2 to +3
• R+1 = +4
• R/D+0 = +5 to +6
• D+1 = +7
• D+2 = +9
• D+3 = +10 — Tipping Point!
• D+4 = +11 to +12
• D+5 = +13
• D+6 = +14 to +15
• D+7 = +16
• D+8 = +17 to +18
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Supposing 2018 could yield an average of +1.86 pickups with each nationally shifted percentage point:
The National Margin (after –04.09) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.09 x 1.86 avg.)
• R+3 = +1 to +2 [seat gains]
• R+2 = +3
• R+1 = +4 to +5
• R/D+0 = +6 to +7
• D+1 = +8 to +9
• D+2 = +10 to +11 — Tipping Point!
• D+3 = +12 to +13
• D+4 = +15
• D+5 = +16
• D+6 = +17 to +18
• D+7 = +19 to +20
• D+8 = +21 to +22
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Let’s go with an average of +1.14 pickups with each nationally shifted percentage point:
The National Margin (after –04.09) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.09 x 1.14 avg.)
• R+3 = +1 [seat gains]
• R+2 = +2
• R+1 = +3
• R/D+0 = +4
• D+1 = +5
• D+2 = +6
• D+3 = +7 to +8
• D+4 = +9
• D+5 = +10 — Tipping Point!
• D+6 = +11
• D+7 = +12
• D+8 = +13
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Let’s review gubernatorial results from the midterm elections of 2014:
2014 GOVERNOR
• Republican 50.33% (+4.09) — Winner!
• Democratic 46.24%
Here were the margins, listed in descending order by their percentage-points margins, for the 24 Republican gubernatorial wins from 2014. (There are 36 scheduled in midterm elections. An [*] indicates a Republican pickup win.)
2014 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN
• Tennessee +47.47
• Nevada +46.70
• South Dakota +45.04
• Ohio +33.61
• Wyoming +32.14
• Alabama +27.32
• Iowa +21.72
• Texas +20.37
• Nebraska +17.92
• Oklahoma +14.80
• South Carolina +14.48
• New Mexico +14.44
• Idaho +13.97
• Arizona +11.80
• * Arkansas +11.25
• Georgia +7.86
• Wisconsin +5.67
• Maine +4.81
[U.S. Popular Vote: +4.09]
• (26) Michigan +4.06 — Tipping Point!
• (27) * Illinois +3.91
• (28) * Maryland +3.78
• (29) Kansas +3.69
• (30) * Massachusetts +1.86
• (31) Florida +1.07
In 2014, there were 11 Democratic gubernatorial wins. (The 36th state resulted in an independent pickup with Alaska. Two other states—New Hampshire and Vermont—are on the schedule every two years. In 2016, they flipped Republican.) I have listed 9 states, in their descending order by their percentage-points margins, from 2014. (An * indicates a Democratic pickup win.)
2014 GOVERNOR — DEMOCRATIC
• California +19.94
• New York +13.95
• Hawaii +12.37
• * Pennsylvania +9.86
• Minnesota +5.56
• Oregon +4.76
• * Rhode Island +4.46
• Colorado +3.35
• Connecticut +2.57
Add +4.09 to all those states’ margins, and that tells you how much more Democratic they were compared to the U.S. Popular Vote margin. If the Democrats win a majority pickup of state governorships, I would anticipate all to get retained in the 2018 Democratic column. I would expect most will increase their margins.
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Due to the fact they are on the schedule, and even though their last election cycles were timed with the presidential year of 2016, here are the two remaining states:
2016 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN
• * Vermont +8.74
• * New Hampshire +2.27
***** CONCLUSION *****
The 2018 gubernatorial Democrats should want a national 2014-to-2018 shift of +8 to win a pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, for Governor, by +4. Yes, +7 nationally shifted to result in a pickup win by +3 may be enough. But, +4 would be more assured.
Again, D, overwhelmed by your statistical analysis.
Thanks so much!