Three Essential Victories–Virginia And New Jersey Governorships And Alabama Senate Race

Ralph Northam in Virginia.

Phil Murphy in New Jersey.

Doug Jones in Alabama.

These are three elections that need to happen, to move the Democratic Party forward in state governments and in the US Senate.

Beyond these three leaders, the emphasis must be to recruit candidates who can take House seats from the Republicans and win state legislative seats in 2018, in addition to the Senate and gubernatorial races next year.

But the first step is to make sure Virginia stays Democratic in the Governorship; that New Jersey go Democratic for Governor; and that Roy Moore, a horrific Senate nominee, be stopped by Doug Jones, a good, decent man, and give the Democrats their 49th seat in the US Senate.

If they can win that seat, and take the Nevada Senate seat of Dean Heller and the Arizona Senate seat of Jeff Flake and the Tennessee Senate seat of Bob Corker, who is not running for reelection in 2018, and somehow keep all their present seats (a tall order) the Democrats could control the Senate and have 52 seats, precisely what the Republicans have right now.

Politics is psychological, and these victories are essential if we are to work to change the equation in the states and in Congress!

13 comments on “Three Essential Victories–Virginia And New Jersey Governorships And Alabama Senate Race

  1. D October 21, 2017 12:44 am

    Let’s say that the Democratic Party flips the U.S. Senate. If they do that, the U.S. House will come first. (Meaning, historical voting pattern and that the House would flip first on Election Night.)

    Let us say, when it is done, the Democrats get 52.

    Okay—the special election in Alabama is the first pickup. Cumulative: 49.

    The order of pickups would be:

    • Nevada. It is on the move from bellwether to Lean Democrat at the presidential level. (Its companion state is New Mexico. Since the latter first voted in 1912, they disagreed only in 2000.) The county deciding the state is Washoe (Reno), which produces margins close to the state margin. In 2008, Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry it since 1964. In 2012, Obama won it again but Washoe County carries for Republican Dean Heller. If Nevada flips the U.S. Senate seat in 2018, Washoe County will deliver. Cumulative: 50.

    • Arizona: Maricopa County (Phoenix) is trending to bellwether county to the state. In 2008, John McCain won his home state by +8.48 and Maricopa County by +10.52. In 2012, Mitt Romney won Arizona by +9.03 and Maricopa County by +10.69. In 2016, Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump won Arizona by an underperformed +3.50 and Maricopa County by +2.84. I estimate the next Democratic presidential pickup winner will flip and carry Arizona. I would say that Maricopa County will also flip for that Democratic presidential pickup winner. Arizona is the second best bet for a 2018 Democratic pickup of a U.S. Senate seat—and Maricopa County would make it happen. Cumulative: 51.

    • Texas. Look to Tarrant County (Fort Worth). It is voting incredibly close to the state number—at times less than 0.25 points in spread. As Tarrant County goes…so goes the state of Texas. Donald Trump severely underperformed his margin in Texas, as the Republican presidential pickup winner of 2016, winning the state by +8.98 after 2012’s losing Mitt Romney carried the state by +15.78. If 2018 turns out to be wave election for the White House opposition party, Texas would be third in line as a likely pickup of a regularly scheduled senate seat. Cumulative: 52.

    If Alabama doesn’t flip, the tipping point state, for a 2018 Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, would be Texas.

  2. Ronald October 21, 2017 6:49 am

    Thanks, D.

    I see you do NOT see Tennessee as a pickup possibility, with Bob Corker retiring, and Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn the likely GOP choice to replace him on the ballot.

  3. D October 21, 2017 10:17 am

    Ronald,

    Tennessee would be a bit lower than my estimate of Texas being the tipping point state of a Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate with the midterm elections of 2018. (That is, if the special in Alabama doesn’t flip.)

    When ranking the best-performed margins by which states carried for the presidential winners Barack Obama (2008 and 2012) and Donald Trump (2016), Colorado did it for Obama both times and Wisconsin was it for Trump. Meaning, Colorado, which was Obama’s 23rd best-performed state (of 28 carried in 2008; 26 carried in 2012), got him to reach 270; Wisconsin, which was Trump’s 28th best-performed state (of 30 carried states in 2016), got him to reach 270. (Example with Trump: Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes got him to 270. Additional Republican pickups of Pennsylvania, his 29th best-performed state, brought him to 290, and Michigan, his 30th best-performed state, was what reached his initial electoral-vote score of 306.)

    My first response’s listed order of potential states—Nevada followed by Arizona and then Texas—is based on the Democrats holding every Democratic-held seat and winning pickup in those states’ Republican-held U.S. Senate seats. (A national wave is what would create that. Based on a lot of these polling numbers for Trump, it appears to be setting this up for strong possibility.)

    If Tennessee were to flip Democratic, the party will have already flipped majority control of the U.S. Senate. (Last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election from Tennessee was re-election for Al Gore in the midterm elections of 1990. At the presidential level, Tennesee’s bellwether days—1912 to 2004 (getting it “wrong” in 1924 and 1960)—are over, as it is now Strong Republican, and Trump won the state by +26 while he did not carry the U.S. Popular Vote by –2.09.) Looking at the following paragraph, I would say Tennessee is, at best, fourth in ranking a pecking order of states for Democratic pickups of Republican-held U.S. Senate seats.

    The Republican-held U.S. Senate seats on the schedule for 2018 are: Alabama (special to replace U.S. attorney general Jeff Sessions); Arizona (Jeff Flake, who underperformed Mitt Romney’s margin in that state in 2012); Mississippi (Roger Wicker); Nebraska (Deb Fischer, 2012 Republican pickup winner); Nevada (Dean Heller, who won the state in 2012 as Democratic president Barack Obama carried it with re-election); Tennessee (Bob Corker, who is not running for re-election, leaving this seat Open); Texas (Ted Cruz); Utah (Orrin Hatch, first elected in 1976); and Wyoming (John Barrasso).

  4. D October 21, 2017 10:50 am

    I did not previously comment on the scheduled 2017 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey.

    Virginia has elected governors opposite the White House party since 1977 with just the exception of 2013.

    New Jersey has delivered on this pattern since 1989.

    With Donald Trump’s low-approval numbers, I would expect both states to end up in the Democratic Party’s column—but that this would count as a 2017 Democratic pickup specifically with New Jersey.

    In 2013, Republican Chris Christie was re-elected as New Jersey governor with a landslide margin of 468,954 raw votes and +22.11 percentage points. Christie received 60.30 to the 38.19 percent for losing Democratic challenger Barbara Buono. He won all but two counties—Essex (Newark) and Hudson (Jersey City).

    The polls that I have seen for New Jersey indicate that a good 90 percent or above likelihood is that it will become a Democratic pickup of Phil Murphy (over Republican nominee and the state’s lieutenant governor Kim Guadagno). It is suggested that Murphy would win by at least +10 percentage points which, if that materializes, would be around a +30-point 2013-to-2017 Democratic shift. So, this would manifest with increased Democratic margins in Essex and Hudson Counties plus pickups in a host of other counties. If you like a blue wave election, look to 2017 New Jersey!

    (I haven’t kept track of Chris Christie’s most recent job-approval numbers but, last I looked, he was so low that he was below 20 percent. He would actually be the reason the Republicans would not hold this state.)

    With regard for Virginia, this was a 2013 Democratic pickup for Terry McAuliffe—breaking the established pattern of what should have been a Republican hold—with a margin of +2.52 percentage points. Now this came after the 2009 Republican pickup for Bob McDonnell whose margin was a landslide +17.36—making the 2009-to-2013 shift Democratic +19.88. But, the 2017 result should be—now that the presidency in the Republican Party’s column with Donald Trump—an additional Democratic shift for electing Ralph Northam over Republican nominee Ed Gillespie. Gillespie did close in Democrat Mark Warner, in the 2014 U.S. Senate election from Virginia, but this was at a time in which the White House was in the Democratic Party’s column with Barack Obama and the national wave was a Republican pickup of the U.S. Senate to the tune of nine flipped seats. (Warner went from +31.30, as the Democratic pickup winner in 2008, to a Democratic hold, in 2014, by +0.81.) What 2014 was for Ed Gillespie was essentially and generally very favorable to his party. 2017 and 2018 will likely be the opposite.

  5. Princess Leia October 21, 2017 11:57 am

    Per FiveThirtyEight blog: The October average of Virginia gubernatorial surveys has Northam leading Gillespie by 7 percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent…With an average Northam lead of about 7 points, sampling error alone suggests that some polls should find Gillespie up by a little and some polls should find Northam with double-digit advantages. That’s exactly what we’re getting.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/calm-down-about-those-virginia-polls-folks/

  6. D October 21, 2017 2:27 pm

    Princess Leia,

    Thank you, very much, for the link to that report!

    Bottom line: If you want the Democrats to win, and to win especially in both Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections in 2017, this is very good.

    Virginia Democratic nominee Ralph Northam is overperforming the +2.52 by which Terry McAuliffe won his 2013 Democratic pickup for Governor of Virginia. Yes, +7 is the poll average. But, just one of those listed—indicating a Republican pickup of +1—was below McAuliffe’s +2.52. Take away an outlier poll, and the average for Northam is +8—indicative of a 2013-to-2017 shift of D+5.50. But, these are polls. If it is really bad for the Republicans, Northam’s margin might be more like going from McAuliffe’s +2.52 to +12.52.

    In New Jersey, Phil Murphy is polling, as a Democratic pickup, between +14 to +18. That would be a 2013-to-2017 Democratic shift between +36 to +40. So, that would be mammoth. An example: in 2013, Democratic Challenger Barbara Buono lost New Jersey by –22 but carried Essex County (Newark) by nearly +25—a spread of D+47. For Phil Murphy to flip New Jersey, and win by, say, +18, he would win Essex County by as much as +65. That gives an indication just how huge a shift can be especially when the result is to flip a state.

  7. Princess Leia October 23, 2017 12:34 pm

    Rational Lefty – Even before Sinclair bought WSET, I hated WSET because they constantly shove Liberty University and the Falwells down our throats.

    I now listen to WDBJ7 for local news. WDBJ7 seems to be more liberal.

  8. Southern Liberal October 23, 2017 5:03 pm

    WDBJ7 is owned by Gray Television. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_Television

    WSLS, the other Roanoke station, is owned by Graham Media Group.   en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_Media_Group

    Unlike, with Sinclair Broadcasting, I haven’t heard any news about the political leanings of Gray Television nor Graham Media Group.

    I agree with Leia. In contrast to the obvious conservative bias of WSET, WDBJ7 and WSLS feel liberal in comparison, like the way CNN feels liberal in comparison to FOX.

  9. Pragmatic Progressive October 24, 2017 12:34 pm

    Agree about WSET being our worst local news channel of the three in the Roanoke-Lynchburg area.

  10. Former Republican October 24, 2017 4:41 pm

    Re: The Sinclair owned station

    I feel that the political commentary that Sinclair forces their stations to air have no place in a local newscast. You watch local news to get local news. You don’t watch local news to get a commentary on national issues from someone who quite frankly doesn’t have credentials journalistically. If Sinclair wants political commentary on their stations, that’s better suited for a Sunday morning talk show. 

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