After seven years of constant and vehement opposition of Republicans to Barack Obama’s signature legislation, the Affordable Care Act of 2010, it now seems as if the Republican Party in Congress is about ready to “throw in the towel”, and accept the continuation of ObamaCare with reforms and changes brought about by bipartisan cooperation with Democrats.
The statement of Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader, conceding the likelihood of giving up the fight to obliterate ObamaCare, was a stunning moment of concession, and shows how the Republican Party is well aware of the impact of trying to end health care coverage for 20-30 million under ObamaCare and Medicaid expansion.
The fury of constituents at town halls is very clear, and is a sign that if enough reaction on any injustice can be promoted by those who want to prevent destructive action, it can actually lead to concessions.
But this also makes clear the total panic of the GOP about the upcoming midterm elections in 16 months, which could lead to a Democratic controlled House of Representatives.
There is even concern that the Republicans could lose the Senate, although that still seems a real long shot, as only 8 Republicans, compared to 25 Democrats, face election in 2018.
The only way possible for a Democratic controlled Senate in 2019-2020 would be if all 25 Democrats or their successors retained those seats, highly unlikely, and to win three of the eight GOP seats, but that would mean winning not only Dean Heller’s seat in Nevada and Jeff Flake’s seat in Arizona, but also Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas.
To kick the obnoxious, egotistical, and arrogant Ted Cruz out of the Senate would be a major coup, but to expect it to occur is highly doubtful at this point.
All of the Senate seats will be discussed at the proper time over the next 16 months on this blog, but right now, the emphasis must be on the gaining of the House of Representatives, by winning 24 or more seats, and immediately, the retention of ObamaCare, with necessary reforms!
Defending Obamacare – A Winning Issue in Rural America
http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/07/10/a-winning-issue-in-rural-america-defending-obamacare/#.WWPRCD_SLFM.facebook
Ronald writes, ” But this also makes clear the total panic of the GOP about the upcoming midterm elections in 16 months, which could lead to a Democratic controlled House of Representatives. | There is even concern that the Republicans could lose the Senate, although that still seems a real long shot, as only 8 Republicans, compared to 25 Democrats, face election in 2018. | The only way possible for a Democratic controlled Senate in 2019-2020 would be if all 25 Democrats or their successors retained those seats, highly unlikely, and to win three of the eight GOP seats, but that would mean winning not only Dean Heller’s seat in Nevada and Jeff Flake’s seat in Arizona, but also Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas.”
A 2018 midterm election wave which goes against the party of the U.S. President, Republican Donald Trump, would make this happen for Democratic pickups of the U.S. House (first) and U.S. Senate (second). That level of national success, which would be a landslide, would also likely usher in Democratic pickups of governor mansions to a point of actually resulting in a new majority (at least 26) in the column for Team Blue. The numbers of state legislature seats would also have to be involved as part of this because they are part of the vote for what the Big Picture looks like when understanding how elections can be local, can be national, can be both local and national.
Part of this is that the turnout is better for the party opposite that incumbent U.S. President. (Since the 17th Amendment, dating back to the 1910s, there have been 26 midterm elections from 1914 to 2014. The party of the president won overall seat gains in only three such election cycles—1934, 1998, and 2002.) This turnout would represent more of the exit polls’ size of the vote as more participating self-identified Democrats (over self-identified Republicans). And with that would likely come more Democratic votes cast by self-identified independents. That would utimately win Election 2018 for Team Blue and bare out at all levels to yield any new majority-control pickups.
The U.S. House would come from Democratic pickups that run along the Rust Belt and go south down the Atlantic states and include Florida. This would stretch further west to include Texas. In states west of Texas, ones also involved in a majority pickup for the Democrats, this would come from the likes of Colorado and Arizona. Utah may also be part of it. And possibly Montana. More likely, California, with its 53 congressional seats, would also be a part of this. (See: http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/ .)
The U.S. Senate would come by flipping from Republican to Democratic the seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas but also retaining every seat currently in the Democratic column. This is, as Ronald notes, harder to pull off because of the specific states on the schedule. It would have to involve a lot of anger toward President Donald Trump and his political party in which voters make it happen. (See: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/# .)
The governorships would also be tied to voting patterns in which a number of states, regardless of whether they are Republican or Democratic in presidential elections, are in the habit of electing governors opposite the party of the U.S. President. Among these states are Wyoming (on this pattern since 1958) and Michigan (with exception of 1990, it has been at it since 1978). The governor mansion in New Jersey, with Republican incumbent Chris Christie’s approvals now under 20 percent, and with its election race scheduled in this current year of 2017, would also be in position to flip from Republican to Democratic. And other states like Kansas, Arizona, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Oklahoma have the potential. If those were to flip from Republican to Democratic, it’s likely Wisconsin would be in position as would probably be the case with Illinois. (All other states currently in the column for Team Blue get retained. This includes the 2017 race in Virginia. The number of states holding gubernatorial elections in midterm years are 36. They include 9 of the Top 10 most-populous states. See: http://www.270towin.com/2017-2018-governor-election/ .)
This is premised on a national wave election against the Republicans, who have the White House with Donald Trump, and favoring the opposition party, the Democratic Party. (I suggest following Donald Trump’s poll numbers in all states available.) It is not making a statement about the U.S. presidential election for 2020. Presidential elections turn out, pretty routinely, a percentile range of the 50s for eligible voters who participate. Midterm elections are usually in the 30s. This is why you can get midterms skewed toward the White House opposition party. And it gives an idea why, whenever it was that I asked it before (I can’t pinpoint the date), it may be worth considering: Is having the presidency truly more important than having the Congress and/or state offices?
Thanks again, D, for your perceptive comments, much appreciated!
D writes: Is having the presidency truly more important than having the Congress and/or state offices?
Trump is obviously mentally ill, making him clearly unfit to be President. If we’re going to have a Republican for President, I would much rather have one who is sane.
However, legislative-wise, Republicans clearly want to go backwards to the 1950’s. So, I would consider Congress and state offices as being very important, for the sake of progressing forward.
Republican voters are nostalgia voters. They are fearful of social change. As Leia said, Trump and other Republicans are promising them a 1950’s culture. This past election was all about 1950 vs. 2050. “Make America Great Again†and “Stronger Together,†the two campaigns’ competing slogans, became proxies for an epic battle over the changing face of America.
http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/07/05/dear-trump-voters-the-1950s-arent-coming-back/