Democrats are rightfully very gloomy one month after the election, with the close vote but loss in three “Blue” states–Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
But when one looks down the road, so to speak, the long range future of the party is bright, since the growth of Hispanic-Latino population, and even the Asian American population, is going to have the effect of changing “Red” states to “Blue” over the next decade.
North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are moving toward a major change in their population, which cannot be reversed, and the Electoral College advantage will definitely be in favor of the Democrats, as a result.
North Carolina with 15 electoral votes, Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Texas with 38 electoral votes, and Arizona with 11 electoral votes, are all growing and becoming more population of these racial minorities, and all four states will have a growth in electoral votes after the Census of 2020 and reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.
As it is now, these four states have 80 electoral votes, but will have a few more in the 2020s, more than enough to overcome the 46 electoral votes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The likelihood of any other of the remaining 15 solid “Blue” states, numbering 15 of the 20 states Hillary Clinton won, going “Red” are extremely unlikely—as the five New England states, four Middle Atlantic states and DC, two Midwestern states, and four Pacific Coast states are all rock solid. The 5 “swing” states that still went to Hillary Clinton–New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico–are also extremely unlikely to swing “Red”, as they did not give in to the sway of Donald Trump. The three western states are becoming more Hispanic and Asian American every year, and Virginia is influenced by its growing Northern Virginia suburbs of the nation’s capital, and New Hampshire by its proximity to Boston. Only New Hampshire might go to the Republicans, but the other four seem certain to remain in the Democratic camp, so New Hampshire with 4 electoral votes is not significant enough to worry about.
So the future is bright, but meanwhile, progressives have to build state parties and win seats in both houses of Congress, a tall order in the short run, but with the hope that long term, the prognosis is much better.
Remember that the three states taken by Trump, all in the Rust Belt, are likely to lose some seats in reapportionment, while the growing states likely to go “Blue” are all to gain seats, so the Electoral College future strongly favors the Democrats.
Just now, if one imagines those four “Red” states going Democratic in the future, the electoral vote of 232 for Hillary Clinton would become 312 with the 80 electoral votes!
And of course, do not write off that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could revert to the Democratic camp, as the Trump wins were very small margin, less than one percent of all votes cast in the three states, and less than 80,000 votes in total!
Arizona, Georgia, and Texas were three of eleven states which had a 2012-to-2016 Democratic shift for Hillary Clinton.
2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump underperformed a 2012 Mitt Romney in Texas by about â€“400,000 raw votes.
In more recent elections, Texas had been about +16 to +20 percentage points more Republican than how the country voted in a given presidential election.
Arizona and Georgia had been, while usually quite close to each other, between +8 to +14 points more Republican than the nation.
With Election 2016, Arizona and Georgia (along with North Carolina, which arrived sooner as willing to flip from red to blue like a bellwether state) saw their margins spread from the national between R+5.48 (Arizona was carried by Trump at +3.51) and R+7.07 (Georgia was won by Trump at +5.10).
(Note: Effective 12.10.2016, at 01:00 p.m. ET, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the U.S. Popular Vote by +1.97. See: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ .)
We will see how 2020 plays out. But, North Carolina had been trending as a bellwether for some time. In 2016, it was surprisingly a little more red than Arizona, at +3.66, which means that Arizona moved much closer to being flippable for Democrats in a year for which they have the White House and saw the presidential election flip Republican.
This means that it is likely these statesâ€”including Texasâ€”will be in position to flip for a pickup-winning Democrat.
Now, this isnâ€™t going to please peopleâ€”but I wouldnâ€™t be surprised if Donald Trump wins a second term with re-election in 2020. (Reasons for that would show moving away from this topicâ€”and I wonâ€™t.) But, I mention this because Wisconsin (which colored red first time since Ronald Reagan won 49 states with re-election in 1984), Pennsylvania and Michigan (both red first time since 1988) look like they have moved from Lean Democratic (Michigan had the most blueâ€”D+5 or D+6) to new bellwethers. And what this would mean, in part, is that one may want to look at emerging trends to see about other statesâ€™ statusâ€”not just with 2016 but with anticipation going forward. So, the pickup-winning Democratâ€”which flips of Arizona, Georgia, Texas (and North Carolina)â€”may be timed for 2024.
Sadly, D, you might be right on this assessment about 2020 and 2024.
There would be so much damage done in the interim, however, that trying to reverse it back to the Obama, FDR, LBJ era will be very difficult, as Trump will inflict long term damage!
But if Trump goes off the deep end, and is forced out, Mike Pence might end up as a Gerald Ford, unelectable in 2020!
Reality is going to set in and they will realize they’ve been conned by Dump.