The Cycle Theory Of American History Again In Play

The 2016 Presidential election magnified the significance of rural and working class whites, as they decided the election in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The number of such people is constantly declining as a portion of the population, so the 2016 election is a last hurrah for these groups, as the growing number of people of Latino and Asian heritage will have a great effect on future Presidential elections, as more millennials become of age and are registered to vote.

This right wing tilt is going to have the ability to do great damage to the liberal-progressive tradition of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Barack Obama in the short term future, but in the middle of the next decade at the latest, the political scene is likely to transform dramatically.

In a way, it is part of the Cycle theory of American history, where a period of reform is followed by a period of reaction, with such reform periods lasting 4-6 years, as with Woodrow Wilson and the New Freedom and New Nationalism, ended by World War I; Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal, ended by World War II; Lyndon B. Johnson and the Great Society, ended by the Vietnam War; and Barack Obama and his reforms, ended by the War on Terrorism, which had a lot to do with Donald Trump’s victory. When we are engaged in concern about foreign policy and national security, it always dampens desire for reform among the people of the United States, who tend to react to fear.

5 comments on “The Cycle Theory Of American History Again In Play

  1. D December 15, 2016 4:33 pm

    Ronald,

    All of this is interesting.

    Prior to 2016 officially ending, I wanted to submit the following. I didn’t get around to it until just recently. Following my January 2015 post, here at https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=23659 , and the fact that Election 2016 was last month, comes this necessary update.

    It’s on the historical reliability rate of all states having carried for United States presidential election winners.

    This begins with the first, in 1789, to the most recent, 2016. That is, since each state first started voting in presidential elections: How reliable has each one been with having carried for presidential election winners? Where do they rank?

    • Historical percentage of carried states: 69.32 percent.

    • Historical average of carried states: 34.66 [34] states.

    This list gives full credit in presidential elections to states which carried for presidential winners who won the U.S. Popular Vote with the Electoral College. In the five election cycles in which we had split outcomes—1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016—the states siding with popular-vote winners get half-credit; those which carried for Electoral College winners, from those split results, get full credit. (In other words, in elections in which the winner carried both the Electoral College and U.S. Popular Vote, states which did not vote with the winner get no credit; in elections in which we had split outcomes, states which did not vote with the Electoral College do not get fully penalized—that they get partial credit—because they did side with the candidate who received the most votes.)

    New Mexico, which first voted in 1912 and sided with all popular-vote winners in all but 1976, leads all other states at No. 1. It is the only state which has voted with the winner 90 percent or more since statehood and first participation in presidential elections. At No. 2 overall, Illinois still ranks best for Top 20 populous states with an allocation of double-digit electoral votes. Six states beginning at No. 14, are now tied with having carried 75 percent—and their listing is in order of statehood. (This is the case in all ties.) And Alabama is at the bottom.

    We have had three presidential elections in which less than 50 percent of the nation’s participating states were carried: 1824, 1960, and 1976. Since post-1980s, we have historically underperformed the now-average of 34 carried states. No presidential winner, in this time frame of 24 years and 7 election cycles (so far), has carried more than 32 states.

    Here is the updated list.…

    * * * RANKING THE STATES WHICH HAVE CARRIED FOR THE U.S. PRESIDENTS | 1789–2016 * * *
    01 | New Mexico | 25 of 27 cycles | 92.59%
    02 | Illinois | 42 of 50 cycles | 84.00%
    03 | New York | 47.5 of 57 cycles | 83.33%
    — | Ohio | 45 of 54 cycles | 83.33%
    — | California | 35 of 42 cycles | 83.33%
    06 | Pennsylvania | 48 of 58 cycles | 82.75%
    07 | Nevada | 31.5 of 39 cycles | 80.76%
    08 | Wisconsin | 33.5 of 43 cycles | 77.90%
    09 | Arizona | 21 of 27 cycles | 77.77%
    10 | West Virginia | 30 of 39 cycles | 76.92%
    11 | Indiana | 39 of 51 cycles | 76.47%
    12 | Missouri | 38 of 50 cycles | 76.00%
    13 | Iowa | 32.5 of 43 cycles | 75.58%
    14 | New Hampshire | 43.5 of 58 cycles | 75.00%
    — | Michigan | 34.5 of 46 cycles | 75.00%
    — | Florida | 31.5 of 42 cycles | 75.00%
    — | Minnesota | 30 of 40 cycles | 75.00%
    — | Oregon | 30 of 40 cycles | 75.00%
    — | Montana | 24 of 32 cycles | 75.00%
    20 | Utah | 23 of 31 cycles | 74.19%
    21 | New Jersey | 42.5 of 58 cycles | 73.27%
    22 | Rhode Island | 41 of 57 cycles | 71.92%
    23 | North Dakota | 23 of 32 cycles | 71.87%
    — | Washington | 23 of 32 cycles | 71.87%
    — | Idaho | 23 of 32 cycles | 71.87%
    26 | Tennessee | 39.5 of 55 cycles | 71.81%
    27 | Oklahoma | 20 of 28 cycles | 71.42%
    28 | Colorado | 25.5 of 36 cycles | 70.83%
    29 | Connecticut | 41 of 58 cycles | 70.68%
    30 | North Carolina | 39.5 of 56 cycles | 70.53%
    • AVERAGE: U.S. President (1789–2016: 58 election cycles)…
    1,539 carried states (from 2,220 voting states) | 69.32% •
    31 | Kansas | 27 of 39 cycles | 69.23%
    32 | Maryland | 40 of 58 cycles | 68.96%
    33 | Virginia | 38.5 of 56 cycles | 68.75%
    — | Wyoming | 22 of 32 cycles | 68.75%
    35 | Maine | 34 of 50 cycles | 68.00%
    36 | Massachusetts | 39 of 58 cycles | 67.24%
    37 | Hawaii | 10 of 15 cycles | 66.66%
    38 | Nebraska | 25 of 38 cycles | 65.78%
    39 | Delaware | 38 of 58 cycles | 65.51%
    40 | Louisiana | 32.5 of 50 cycles | 65.00%
    41 | Vermont | 37 of 57 cycles | 64.91%
    — | Kentucky | 37 of 57 cycles | 64.91%
    43 | Arkansas | 27 of 44 cycles | 61.36%
    44 | Texas | 25 of 41 cycles | 60.97%
    45 | Alaska | 09 of 15 cycles | 60.00%
    46 | Georgia | 34 of 57 cycles | 59.64%
    — | South Carolina 34 of 57 cycles | 59.64%
    48 | South Dakota 19 of 32 cycles | 59.37%
    49 | Mississippi | 26.5 of 48 cycles | 55.20%
    50 | Alabama | 26.5 of 49 cycles | 54.08%

    * * * * *

    * * * THE PERCENTAGES OF STATES WHICH HAVE CARRIED FOR THE U.S. PRESIDENTS | 1789–2016 * * *

    The following are all presidential election winners and their carried states and percentages of carried states.…

    01 | 1789 | George Washington | 10 of 10 | 100.00%
    02 | 1792 | George Washington | 10 of 10 | 100.00%
    03 | 1796 | John Adams (F) | 09 of 16 | 56.25%
    04 | 1800 | Thomas Jefferson (D–R) | 09 of 16 | 56.25%
    05 | 1804 | Thomas Jefferson (D–R) | 15 of 17 | 88.23%
    06 | 1808 | James Madison (D–R) | 12 of 17 | 70.58%
    07 | 1812 | James Madison (D–R) | 11 of 18 | 61.11%
    08 | 1816 | James Monroe (D–R) | 16 of 19 | 84.21%
    09 | 1820 | James Monroe (D–R) | 24 of 24 | 100.00%
    10 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams (D–R) | 07 of 24 | 29.16%
    11 | 1828 | Andrew Jackson (D) | 15 of 24 | 62.50%
    12 | 1832 | Andrew Jackson (D) | 16 of 24 | 66.66%
    13 | 1836 | Martin Van Buren (D) | 15 of 26 | 57.69%
    14 | 1840 | William Henry Harrison (W) | 19 of 26 | 73.07%
    15 | 1844 | James Polk (D) | 15 of 26 | 57.69%
    16 | 1848 | Zachary Taylor (W) | 15 of 30 | 50.00%
    17 | 1852 | Franklin Pierce (D) | 27 of 31 | 87.09%
    18 | 1856 | James Buchanan (D) | 19 of 31 | 61.29%
    19 | 1860 | Abraham Lincoln (R) | 17 of 32 | 53.12%
    20 | 1864 | Abraham Lincoln (R) | 22 of 25 | 88.00%
    21 | 1868 | Ulysses Grant (R) | 26 of 34 | 76.47%
    22 | 1872 | Ulysses Grant (R) | 31 of 37 | 83.78%
    23 | 1876 | Rutherford Hayes (R) | 21 of 38 | 55.26%
    24 | 1880 | James Garfield (R) | 19 of 38 | 50.00%
    25 | 1884 | Grover Cleveland (D) | 20 of 38 | 52.63%
    26 | 1888 | Benjamin Harrison (R) | 20 of 38 | 52.63%
    27 | 1892 | Grover Cleveland (D) | 24 of 44 | 54.54%
    28 | 1896 | William McKinley (R) | 23 of 45 | 51.11%
    29 | 1900 | William McKinley (R) | 28 of 45 | 62.22%
    30 | 1904 | Teddy Roosevelt (R) | 32 of 45 | 71.11%
    31 | 1908 | William Howard Taft (R) | 29 of 46 | 63.04%
    32 | 1912 | Woodrow Wilson (D) | 40 of 48 | 83.33%
    33 | 1916 | Woodrow Wilson (D) | 30 of 48 | 62.50%
    34 | 1920 | Warren Harding (R) | 37 of 48 | 77.08%
    35 | 1924 | Calvin Coolidge (R) | 35 of 48 | 72.91%
    36 | 1928 | Herbert Hoover (R) | 40 of 48 | 83.33%
    37 | 1932 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 42 of 48 | 87.50%
    38 | 1936 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 46 of 48 | 95.83%
    39 | 1940 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 38 of 48 | 79.16%
    40 | 1944 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 36 of 48 | 75.00%
    41 | 1948 | Harry Truman (D) | 28 of 48 | 58.33%
    42 | 1952 | Dwight Eisenhower (R) | 39 of 48 | 81.25%
    43 | 1956 | Dwight Eisenhower (R) | 41 of 48 | 85.41%
    44 | 1960 | John Kennedy (D) | 22 of 50 | 44.00%
    45 | 1964 | Lyndon Johnson (D) | 44 of 50 | 88.00%
    46 | 1968 | Richard Nixon (R) | 32 of 50 | 64.00%
    47 | 1972 | Richard Nixon (R) | 49 of 50 | 98.00%
    48 | 1976 | Jimmy Carter (D) | 23 of 50 | 46.00%
    49 | 1980 | Ronald Reagan (R) | 44 of 50 | 88.00%
    50 | 1984 | Ronald Reagan (R) | 49 of 50 | 98.00%
    51 | 1988 | George Bush (R) | 40 of 50 | 80.00%
    52 | 1992 | Bill Clinton (D) | 32 of 50 | 64.00%
    53 | 1996 | Bill Clinton (D) | 31 of 50 | 62.00%
    54 | 2000 | George W. Bush (R) | 30 of 50 | 60.00%
    55 | 2004 | George W. Bush (R) | 31 of 50 | 62.00%
    56 | 2008 | Barack Obama (D) | 28 of 50 | 56.00%
    57 | 2012 | Barack Obama (D) | 26 of 50 | 52.00%
    58 | 2016 | Donald Trump (R) | 30 of 50 | 60.00%

    Cumulative Totals:
    • 1,539 cumulative carried states, from 2,220 cumulative participating states, is 69.32% of cumulative carried states.

    Average of Carried States:
    • This is a historical average of 34.66 [34] individual states.

  2. D December 15, 2016 4:36 pm

    A correction:

    New Mexico should read as: 25 of 27.

    (It had two popular-vote occurrences: 2000, 2016. So, it has gone with the winner 24 times. Two separate election cycles, 2000 and 2016, brings it up to 25.)

    The percentage, 92.59, is correct.

    (If Ronald doesn’t mind correcting that…thank you!)

  3. Ronald December 15, 2016 5:39 pm

    Thanks so much, D, for your great analysis, and I have corrected it!

  4. Princess Leia December 21, 2016 9:14 pm

    I’m wondering about that too, Southern Liberal. Nationalism is on the rise around the world again, just like it was before WWII.

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