Many Republicans seem to think that middle class “Rust Belt” voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will abandon their strong support for Democrats in Presidential elections and vote for Donald Trump in 2016.
That is totally delusional, as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongly “Blue” for the past six Presidential elections, and will not change this November.
Ohio is a different story, as it is the ultimate “Swing” state, and that is why Sherrod Brown, Ohio Democratic Senator, might be selected as Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate.
If Donald Trump was able to convince Ohio Governor John Kasich or Ohio Senator Rob Portman, to be his running mate for Vice President, the odds of the Republicans winning Ohio would be vastly improved, but there seems to be zero chance of either Ohio Republican office holder taking up such an offer.
Polls so far make it clear that Hillary Clinton is strongly favored to carry all four “Rust Belt” states.
A winning Republican will have to carry the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +06 in order to have all four states in his column. That Michigan tends to perform by +05 or +06 more Democratic than the nation.
This is averaging this state’s post-1980s performances.
When Bill Clinton flipped Michigan, in 1992, it was +02. (In 1984, 1988, and 1992, Michigan voted like a bellwether state—very close to national margins with the U.S. Popular Vote—but grew more Democratic thereafter.) In 1996, it was +05. In 2000, it was +05. In 2004, it was +06. In 2008, it was +09. In 2012, it was +06. So, depending on when the recording of averages should start, well…
I am suspecting we may be in for a 2016 Democratic landslide. And if that turns out to be the case, the only Rust Belt state Republican Donald Trump should be able to count on is West Virginia. (In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the Republican-trending state by +27.)