So it comes down to Florida and Ohio.
Next Tuesday, when those two states, and others, vote in their primaries, we will know if Donald Trump is the likely GOP nominee for sure or not.
Right now, Trump leads Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio, and there is no question that if these two contenders cannot win their home states, they are done.
But if they or either one wins their states, then the Trump bandwagon is at least slowed, and the likelihood of a contested convention in Cleveland in July becomes more likely.
Trump has gained the enmity of conservatives, including the two major conservative periodicals, the National Review and the Weekly Standard. The conservative movement is in crisis, as they foresee an electoral disaster if Trump is the GOP nominee.
It seems much more clear now that the Republicans are fighting a losing battle, as with Michael Bloomberg deciding not to run as an Independent, the odds of the Democrats winning the Electoral College becomes much more certain, with either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.
But ultimately, it is not only these two primaries that are crucial, but also recognition that IF the Democrats win either Florida or Ohio in the fall, they are guaranteed victory, and that likelihood is increasingly likely!
MSNBC is reporting tonight that some Democrats are voting for Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio to try to stop Trump.
Trump literally had red meat at his press conference last night. http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/08/politics/donald-trump-steak-wine-water-press-conference/
John Kasich finished slightly behind Ted Cruz as runners-up in the 2016 Michigan Republican presidential primary won on Tuesday, March 8, 2016 by Donald Trump.
To win Ohio, Kasich should not have finished lower than No. 2 in neighboring Michigan.
Florida is apparently Marco Rubio’s last stand. But the revelation is that, due to his failure to get 10 let alone the necessary 15 percent, Marco Rubio won’t get any delegates from Michigan. That is not a sign of encouragement for Rubio heading into his home state.
I am anticipating, on the Republican side, that Donald Trump will win the primaries in both Ohio and Florida.
Now, about the Electoral College: Simply put, no Republican is going to string together a victory of reaching 270 electoral votes without both Ohio and Florida. They’re typically about two or three percentage points in spread from each other. They are bellwether states. (Ohio has carried in all, except for 1944 and 1960, since 1896. Florida has carried in all, except for 1960 and 1992, since 1928.) And, in 2012, President Obama’s re-election including carriage of Ohio saw that state’s genders’ percentages mirror Obama’s national results: Males 45% • Females 55%. That’s a sure sign that Ohio will likely carry again here in 2016. (With Florida likely to agree.)
A note about the March 8, 2016 primaries in Michigan dealing with the Democratic side: 18–29 voting-age group were also over 80 percent in their support for Bernie Sanders. This is the first Top 10 populous state carried by Sanders (over Hillary Clinton). And, for electoral votes (reflecting populations), Michigan is four times that of New Hampshire and two in a half times Iowa—and for 18–29 voters to give that level support to Bernie Sanders, in a base state for the Democratic Party, is making a hell of a statement. Oh, and I am so happy Bernie upset Hillary to win Michigan! I voted for him, gladly so, and he defied these unreliable polling sources by up to 25 or 30 points—which, given approximately 1 million cast votes, accounted for, say, 250,000 or 300,000 votes by which these polling sources were in error.
Adding to my prior post:
• Do not trust these state primaries and caucuses polls loosely as so many already have. (Michigan is a hell of a great example.)
• Look for Marco Rubio to possibly drop out just before Florida. If he doesn’t mind the embarrassment of losing there—even if it’s by a terrible margin—then he would drop out right after Florida.
D, your perceptive comments are right on the mark, and I agree with you, that Ohio and Florida will be crucial next week,and that the Democrat have the clear cut edge in November in both states.
I remind you and everyone that 18 states, 247 electoral votes, have been a lock for the Democrats for a long time, and all that is required to win for the Democrats are either Florida or Ohio and Virginia, or a combination of other states, including Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico. And North Carolina is in play, along with possibly Georgia and Arizona, due to growing Hispanic-Latino voting.
Hillary and Trump are leading in Florida and Ohio.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/09/politics/trump-clinton-lead-florida-ohio/index.html
Polls show that both Hillary and Bernie both easily defeat Trump in November. Her match-ups with Cruz and Rubio are closer.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-trump-rubio-and-cruz-would-fare-against-clinton-november
Hillary is still leading in the delegates and the popular vote due to her huge win in Mississippi.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/8/hillary-further-ahead-despite-mi-loss
I very much agree with this. Many Democrats want to build on what President Obama has achieved and would prefer evolution instead of revolution.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/7/bernie-sanders-doesnt-get-democrats-not-hungry-for-revolution
Bernie’s “ghetto” comment is why he’s having a hard time connecting with black and brown people. http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/7/flint-debate-bernie-ghettoizes-black-america
You can dismiss those polls stating that Hillary Clinton would win Ohio and Florida by such landslide margins.
She was supposed to be winning Michigan so big. (And I mentioned that.)
Bernie Sanders having shockingly won Michigan may have rewritten the script of this 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries. This is the Rust Belt. And Michigan was the first state on the schedule. It may be the one that gets the ball rolling for Bernie Sanders in the likes of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
• Also: Please take those super delegates and cast aside those numbers. Do not automatically roll them into Hillary Clinton’s “Total Delegates†(which is what CNN did on its Tuesday, March 8, 2016 election-night coverage.)
Exactly right, Pragmatic. Bernie says he will bring about a political revolution to make his dreams of a democratic socialist society come true, which is an unlikely proposition given that the GOP is sure to control one house of Congress, maybe even both. Hillary advocates a pragmatic approach: protecting the progressive gains won under President Obama, taking what new gains may be possible in a divided government, and setting the political table to back for more later. Historically, it is this latter approach that has produced change. In any democratic system of government, progress is incremental.
Princess Leia, you are correct!
Nancy Letourneau, a pragmatic progressive who writes in the Washington Monthly, and runs the pragmatic political blog, Horizons (immasmartypants.blogspot.com/), says the following in her latest Washington Monthly blog regarding Michigan:
But I would suggest that the big number that explains why the polls were so wrong is that 28% of those who voted in Michigan’s Democratic primary yesterday were independents. And they went for Sanders by a whopping 71% – while Clinton won with registered Democrats. This is something we’ve seen happen in all the states that have open primaries. The question this raises is whether or not pollsters are capturing independents in their “likely voter†screens (especially young independents who haven’t voted in previous elections).
If that is the issue, we could see similar problems with the polls for upcoming states like Ohio and Illinois – which have open (or semi-open) primaries – but not in Florida, where the primary is closed. So that’s something to keep an eye on.
See more here:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2016_03/democratic_primaries_what_we_l059866.php
Here’s a break down of where Bernie won and where Hillary won.
http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/live_results_michigan_primary.html#incart_big-photo
That should be: “pragmatic progressive political blog”
Ms. Letourneau posted the article about Michigan on her blog (http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2016/03/democratic-primaries-what-we-learned-in.html). In regards to the delegates she says the following: Even if we ignore the contentious superdelegates, Clinton leads so far 745 to 540 (60%/40%). Even “losing” Michigan last night, she won 58 delegates to Sanders’ 65. It will be very difficult for Sanders to make up ground on the delegate count with close wins like the one in Michigan yesterday.
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I think Bernie will continue to give Hillary a run for her money but I think she will be the nominee in the end.
This hits the nail on the head as far as my problem with Bernie is concerned. His worldview is too narrow.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/8/tunnel-vision-sanders-unfit-to-lead
This is a blog I read for my state’s political news. This morning the blog had an excellent essay on who is the better bet to beat Trump in November.
http://bluevirginia.us/2016/03/who-is-the-better-bet-to-beat-trump-hillary-or-bernie
This hits the nail on the head for me. I’ve always very strongly disagreed with the notion by some on the left that the two parties are the same.
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-consequences-of-republican.html
Southern Liberal – I’ve been enjoying her postings as well.
Her latest one is in regards to the trade issue. As she says, the manufacturing problem is more complex than simply blaming trade deals.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2016_03/sanders_is_exploiting_the_trad059878.php
Southern Liberal – In the Democratic debate last night, they brought up a clip of him talking about Fidel Castro (www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/9/miami-demdebate-bernies-socialism-not-so-democratic). If Bernie becomes the nominee, things like that are what the Republicans will be attacking him with in the Fall.
Bernie and Hillary have their flaws,however, at least when they have debates, they are talking about the issues, rather than stupid stuff, such as the size of their “private parts”.
I second that Rustbelt.
On the Horizons blog, even though Ms. Letourneau is leaning towards Hillary, she does give constructive criticism to Hillary as necessary.
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2016/03/clinton-muddies-waters-about-our-past.html