Third parties or independent movements have often affected American Presidential elections, and has helped to influence who is elected to the Presidency.
Several public figures are believed to be considering running, and it would only further complicate an already confusing election contest.
Donald Trump, despite signing a pledge to back the GOP Presidential candidate if it is not him, is now hinting that he might renege on his pledge, as he sees growing opposition from Republican Establishment personalities to the damage he is wreaking on the Republican Party.
Former Virginia Democratic Senator Jim Webb, who dropped out of the race after an unimpressive debate performance, is also flirting with the idea of running as an independent.
And there are rumors that another New York billionaire, former Democrat and Republican and Independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, might throw his “hat in the ring.”
Any of these three could have a deleterious effect, with Bloomberg having the potential to harm the Democrats; Webb to harm both parties; and Trump to destroy any chance for the Republicans to win an already difficult race in the Electoral College! None could win the Presidency, but help to decide who is inaugurated on January 20, 2017!
Webb would be irrelevant, Bloomberg might damage Democrats in the northeast and Trump could believe it or not damage both Republicans and Democrats. Why Democrats, well with his “bring jobs back to US, anti-China/Mexico” narrative he might siphon away blue collar Democrat votes aka Reagan Democrats. But that will only happen if an establishment type Republican wins the nomination like Bush or Kasich or even Rubio. If Cruz on the other hand wins the nomination, then that means Trump would have suffered a humiliating defeat and thus would be irrelevant.
ROFL! Democrats are not going to be voting for Trump.
Huntsman with either Bloomberg or Webb would make a good independent ticket. If a far-right candidate like Cruz is nominated, the best strategy for an independent would be to make a play for the center-right and center-left vote. Huntsman-Webb or Huntsman-Bloomberg could do that.
I agree with what Bob said.
A new poll shows Hillary ahead of Teapublican’ts. Bernie does even better. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307
Zuckerburg is one of the few one percenters whom I admire. http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/01/technology/zuckerberg-facebook-stock-daughter/index.html
The last third-party candidate to carry any states and win any amount of electoral votes was American Independent (really, at the time, a Democratic Alternative) George Wallace. The former governor of Alabama carried his home state along with Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Except for Arkansas, those states voted for the routed 1964 Republican Barry Goldwater. Except for Georgia, those same states voted for another third-party candidate, States Rights’ nominee Strom Thurmond, in 1948.
The last third-party candidate to rally considerable national support was Ross Perot. In 1992, he won 18.91 (go ahead and call it 19) percent of the U.S. Popular Vote. Perot also carried no states. He came in second place in just two states: Utah, the Republicans’ strongest state (percentage points, margins wise) from 1976 to 2004 and again in 2012, and Maine (which became a Democratic pickup for Bill Clinton).
In 2000, a Republican pickup year for George W. Bush over the incumbent Democratic vice president Al Gore, Green Party nominee Ralph Nader earned 2.74 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote. Many still blame Nader for Gore not keeping the presidency in the Democratic column. (Easiest analyses: Look at states where the margins were less than 2.74 between Bush and Gore and assign 100 percent of that, in an imagined scenario, as having gone to Gore had it not been for Nader competing.)
I think this country is so into the R-vs.-D system that it is now like a sport. Of the 33 (minimum) U.S. Senate races, latest election trends in presidential years have resulted in about 80 percent of the states, with those scheduled U.S. Senate races, having ended up carrying for the same party at both the presidential and senatorial levels. So, I would anticipate that the 2016 elections may continue in that mold. And when that continues to happen, there is barely any room for a third-party candidate to get even two percent of the vote.
In 2000, the percentages from George W. Bush and Al Gore added up to 96.25 percent of a two-party vote. In 2004, between Bush and John Kerry, it was 99.00 percent. In 2008, a Democratic pickup year for Barack Obama over John McCain, it was 98.58 percent. In 2012, with re-election of Obama over Mitt Romney, it was 98.18 percent. Averages from those elections for a two-party presidential vote: 98.00 percent. Take away 2000, for the sake of the math, and it was: 98.58 percent. That’s the difference, lately, in the impact from a “viable” third-party candidate. Voters are really not branching out to consider anyone without a “R” or “D” after his/her name.
I forgot to note that George Wallace was in 1968. People know that. But I forgot to include it. (Sorry about that!)
Thanks again, D, for your perceptive and intelligent comments.
This is what the purpose should be of commentary, but then there are some people who just wish to be negative and divisive, but I will not give such an attitude any respect.
I really appreciate your contributions, D, as I have often stated, and encourage more from you, as you add a lot to the blog! Thanks!
I agree with what PCTC blog says about third parties. It’s not realistic.
http://pleasecutthecrap.com/unicorns-and-rainbows-and-stupid-progressives/
http://pleasecutthecrap.com/two-facts-3rd-party-votes-are-politically-stupid-and-midterms-are-not-less-important/