It is hard to recall that California was for a long time strongly Republican in Presidential contests and in Congressional seats as well, but the decision of the Republican Party to work against the interests of Hispanic and Latino Americans under Governor Pete Wilson twenty years ago doomed the GOP in that state, to the point that there are hardly any Republicans in the Congressional delegation and a minority in both houses of the state legislature. Additionally, California is no longer a battle ground for the Presidential elections, and having 55 electoral votes is twenty percent of what is needed for winning the Presidency!
Once Hispanic and Latino Americans in Texas, the second largest state in population, become more active in voting, and as more young Hispanics and Latinos grow up to the age of voting, and realize the importance of fighting against the regressive attitudes of Governor Rick Perry and the Texas Congressional delegation and state legislature, the odds of the state electing a Democratic Governor and winning more Congressional seats, and turning “Blue” for the Presidential elections of the future, in the same manner as California, becomes much more likely. And 38 electoral votes, added to the 55 of California, gives future Democrats one third of all of the electoral votes needed to win the White House!
With rising stars such as State Senator Wendy Davis, who is leading the fight against a strict abortion law in the state legislature; and with the rise of Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio, and his brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro, the rise of the Hispanic and Latino participation, and that of the women who feel wronged by the extremist agenda of Rick Perry and the conservative Republican legislature, will eventually reverberate on elections over the next seven years!
So the GOP may have dominance in the Lone Star State right now, but the odds of it changing dramatically by 2020 and after is very high. The Democrats will be unlikely to win the state in the Presidential Election of 2016, but very likely to have a real opportunity to do so in the Presidential Election of 2020, and once that happens, the GOP will be on its death bed, at least in the sense of being able to count on the backing of the second largest state, and that will make the Republican Party a minority party for the long haul, if it indeed survives!
Hello Professor,
As time goes on, not only Texas, but many other states will either transistion to Moderate Republicans as they purge the dysfunctional cartoon character Teabaggers and Reactionary Extremists, or swing totally towards the Democrats.
One does not need much foresight to see the direction the nation is going.
Great analysis Professor.
Engineer I am right there with you. I firmly believe the Republicans were able to sprinkle their hate dust on many Americans in 2010. Too many Americans drank Fox’s koolaid and followed like sheeple.
But Americans have awakened as the right wing has proved exactly how insane they are. I believe even many republicans are shocked at the maleficence of their own party.
Liberal Idiocy, Stupidity and Insanity. Take you pick.
1. Sheryl Crow on Environmentalism: “I propose a limitation be put on how many sqares [sic] of toilet paper can be used in any one sitting. Now, I don’t want to rob any law-abiding American of his or her God-given rights, but I think we are an industrious enough people that we can make it work with only one square per restroom visit, except, of course, on those pesky occasions where 2 to 3 could be required.'”
2. Joe Biden on culturalism: “In Delaware, the largest growth of population is Indian Americans, moving from India. You cannot go to a 7/11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.”
3. Whoopi Goldberg on 43-year-old Roman Polanski raping and sodomizing a 13-year-old girl: “I know it wasn’t rape-rape. It was something else but I don’t believe it was rape-rape. He went to jail and and [sic] when they let him out he was like “You know what this guy’s going to give me a hundred years in jail I’m not staying, so that’s why he left.”
4. Joy Behar on Economics: “Isn’t it a little racist to call it Black Friday?”
5. John Conyers on the Health Care Bill, which he voted for: “I love these members, they get up and say, ‘Read the bill … What good is reading the bill if it’s a thousand pages and you don’t have two days and two lawyers to find out what it means after you read the bill?'”
6. Former DNC Chairman Donald Fowler on possible delay of RNC convention due to Hurricane Gustav: “Plus they think the hurricane’s going to hit (starts laughing) New Orleans about the time they start. The timing, at least it appears now, that it’ll be there Monday. That just demonstrates God’s on our side”
7. Barack Obama: “I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go?”
8. John Kerry on the troops: “You know, education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don’t, you get stuck in Iraq.”
9. Howard Dean: “We know that no one person can succeed unless everybody else succeeds.”
10. Rosie O’Donnell: “Don’t fear the terrorists. They’re mothers and fathers.”
11. Al Gore: “During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet.”
12. Congressman Hank Johnson on Guam: “My fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize,”
13. Alan Grayson on Health Care: “The Republican health care plan: don’t get sick … The Republicans have a back up plan in case you do get sick … This is what the Republicans want you to do. If you get sick America, the Republican health care plan is this: Die quickly!”
14. Nancy Pelosi on the economy: “every month that we do not have an economic recovery package 500 million Americans lose their jobs.”
15. Helen Thomas: Jews should “get the hell out of Palestine” and “go home” to Germany and Poland.
16. Wanda Sykes: “I think Rush Limbaugh was the 20th hijacker but he was just so strung out on Oxycontin he missed his flight … Rush Limbaugh — I hope the country fails. I hope his kidneys fail, how about that? He needs a waterboarding, that’s what he needs.”
17. Bill Clinton on ordinary Americans: “African Americans watch the same news at night that ordinary Americans do.”
18. Barack Obama on a tornado that killed twelve people: “In case you missed it, this week, there was a tragedy in Kansas. Ten thousand people died – an entire town destroyed”
19. Harry Reid on Iraq: “This war is lost and the surge is not accomplishing anything.”
20. Kanye West: “George Bush doesn’t care about black people.”
21. Joe Biden on the economy: “The number one job facing the middle class, and it happens to be, as Barack says, a three-letter word: jobs. J-O-B-S.”
22. Bill Maher on Christianity: “I think religion is a neurological disorder.
23. Joe Biden on History: “When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn’t just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, ‘Look, here’s what happened.”
24. Ted Rall: “Over time, however, the endless war in Iraq began to play a role in natural selection. Only idiots signed up; only idiots died. Back home, the average I.Q. soared.”
25. Michael Moore on terrorism: “There is no terrorist threat. Yes, there have been horrific acts of terrorism and, yes, there will be acts of terrorism again. But that doesn’t mean that there’s some kind of massive terrorist threat.”
26. Henry Waxman on Environmentalism: “We’re seeing the reality of a lot of the North Pole starting to evaporate, and we could get to a tipping point. Because if it evaporates to a certain point – they have lanes now where ships can go that couldn’t ever sail through before. And if it gets to a point where it evaporates too much, there’s a lot of tundra that’s being held down by that ice cap.”
27. Marion Barry, former mayor of Washington, DC: “If you take out the killings, Washington actually has a very very low crime rate.”
28. California Senator Barbara Boxer: “Those who survived the San Francisco earthquake said, ‘Thank God, I’m still alive.’ But, of course, those who died, their lives will never be the same again.”
29. Wesley Bolin, former governor of Arizona: “We’d like to avoid problems, because when we have problems, we can have troubles.”
30. Senator Chris Dodd, while on the campaign trail: “Eight more days and I can start telling the truth again” Sen. Chris Dodd, on the campaign trail.
31. Melissa Lafsky, Huffington Post blogger: “[Mary Jo] would have thought about arguably being a catalyst for the most successful Senate career in history … Who knows — maybe she’d feel it was worth it.”
32. Joe Biden on the passage of the Health Care Bill: “This is a big f…ing deal!”
33. Bill Clinton: “It all depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”
34. Jerry Brown, former governor of California, and current candidate for the same position: “The conventional viewpoint says we need a jobs program and we need to cut welfare. Just the opposite! We need more welfare and fewer jobs.”
35. Rosie O’Donnell : “I do believe that it’s the first time in history that fire has ever melted steel. I do believe that it defies physics that World Trade Center tower 7 — building 7, which collapsed in on itself — it is impossible for a building to fall the way it fell without explosives being involved. World Trade Center 7. World Trade [Center] 1 and 2 got hit by planes — 7, miraculously, the first time in history, steel was melted by fire. It is physically impossible.”
36. Marion Barry, former mayor of Washington, DC: “I am clearly more popular than Reagan. I am in my third term. Where’s Reagan? Gone after two! Defeated by George Bush and Michael Dukakis no less.”
37. Bill Clinton: “I have never had sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky. I’ve never had an affair with her.”
38. Joe Biden, on the mother of Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, who is, in fact, still alive: “His mom lived in Long Island for ten years or so. God rest her soul. And- although, she’s- wait- your mom’s still- your mom’s still alive. Your dad passed. God bless her soul.”
39. Al Gore on zoology: “A zebra does not change its spots.”
40. Rod Blagojevich, former governor of IL: “I’m blacker than Barack Obama. I shined shoes. I grew up in a five-room apartment. My father had a little laundromat in a black community not far from where we lived. I saw it all growing up.”
41. Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on the newly passed health care law: “We actually have not required in this law that you carry health insurance.”
42. Congressman John Dingell on freedom: “The harsh fact of the matter is when you’re passing legislation that will cover 300 million American people in different ways, it takes a long time to do the necessary administrative steps that have to be taken to put the legislation together to control the people.”
43. Former Congressman Eric Massa: “Now, they’re saying I groped a male staffer. Yes, I did. Not only did I grope him, I tickled him until he couldn’t breathe and four guys jumped on top of me. It was my 50th birthday.”
44. Congressman Charlie Rangel on our troops: “If a young fella has an option of having a decent career or joining the army to fight in Iraq, you can bet your life that he would not be in Iraq.”
45. Radio personality Ed Schultz on elections: “If I lived in Massachusetts, I’d try to vote ten times … Yeah that’s right, I’d cheat to keep these bastards out. I would. Because that’s exactly what they are.”
46. John Kerry on health care: “I’m going to be honest with you — I don’t know a lot about Cuba’s healthcare system. Is it a government-run system?”
47. Congresswoman Maxine Waters on socialism: “Guess what this liberal would be all about? This liberal will be about socializing…uh, um…Would be about, basically, taking over, and the government running all of your companies.”
48. Senator Harry Reid on Barack Obama: “…light-skinned,” and with “no negro dialect.”
48. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on national security, after a man attempted to blow up a commercial airplane with a bomb in his panties: “The system worked.”
49. Nancy Pelosi on legislation: “But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.”
50. Joe Biden to Missouri State Senator Chuck Graham, who is wheelchair bound: “stand up … Chuck, stand up, Chuck, let ’em see you!”
” Liberals are perennially enraged that Republicans are allowed to talk back. For years, this wasn’t a problem, because, in Lenin’s immortal words, they had seized the telegraph office. There were only three TV stations, three major newspapers, and a handful of national magazines, all run by liberals. But at least since Rush Limbaugh got a microphone, liberals haven’t been able to make arguments in a vacuum.” A.C.
” The reason any conservative’s failing is always major news is that it allows liberals to engage in their very favorite taunt: Hypocrisy! Hypocrisy is the only sin that really inflames them. Inasmuch as liberals have no morals, they can sit back and criticize other people for failing to meet the standards that liberals simply renounce. It’s an intriguing strategy. By openly admitting to being philanderers, draft dodgers, liars, weasels and cowards, liberals avoid ever being hypocrites.” A.C.
“With their infernal racial set-asides, racial quotas, and race norming, liberals share many of the Klan’s premises. The Klan sees the world in terms of race and ethnicity. So do liberals! Indeed, liberals and white supremacists are the only people left in America who are neurotically obsessed with race. Conservatives champion a color-blind society.”A.C.
“Just as we’re always told that schoolyard bullies are actually deeply insecure, liberals rationalize their own ferocious behavior by claiming to have been wounded somehow. What about the little guy our poor, insecure bully is beating the living daylights out of? How’s his self-esteem coming along? That is the essence of liberals: They viciously attack everyone else, while wailing that they are the victims.” A.C.
Finally my favorite:
“Liberals never, ever drop a heinous idea; they just change the name. “Abortion†becomes “choice,†“communist†becomes “progressive,†“communist dictatorship†becomes “people’s democratic republic†and “Nikita Khrushchev†becomes “Barack Obama.â€A.C
Yes Maggi, and I’ll be glad to see the Teabager & Corporate Stoogie, Andy Harris, fall to a worthy challenger in 2014. This is going to have to come from a rising star within the Democratic side as the old Klansmen on the shore will want to keep that nut job.
“Liberals seem to have hit upon a reverse Christ story as their belief system. He suffered and died for our sins; liberals make the rest of us suffer for sins we didn’t commit. Their claims of how awful ‘we’ are never seems to encompass themselves in the ‘we.’ Saying America is a racist nation is never meant to suggest that the speaker is a racist — it’s his neighbors who are the racists. ” A.C.
For the Democrats to win Texas, one or the other will have to happen: They will have to win the U.S. Popular Vote, with a prevailing presidential election, by a national margin of about 15 or 16 percentage points (say, 57 to 42 percent; or 57 to 41 percent). Or they will not have to perform that strongly because the Democrats will, by then, have successfully rebuilt the party in the Lone Star State and, with their investment, will be able to compete.
In 2008, Barack Obama won over Dallas (Dallas) and Houston (Harris) counties, marking the first time a Democrat won those counties since 36th president Lyndon Johnson carried his home state in the presidential election of 1964. (That year, LBJ won 44 states to the 6 for Barry Goldwater. District of Columbia, the bluest area of the nation, voted for the first time. Alaska cast its sole Democratic presidential vote. And some of today’s darkest red states—like Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and, hell, even Oklahoma—carried for LBJ as the radical Goldwater barely held his home state of Arizona and had his breakthrough with five adjacent southern states: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.)
With re-election in 2012, Obama once again carried those two Texas counties. But more rope is needed by the Democrats. For one, they need to move bellwether—in terms of the presidency—Bexar County (San Antonio) regularly into the Democratic column. (This county has voted for the winner of the presidency every time since 1972.) The margins in Harris County are suggesting it’s now a Democratic county, as it was 31.20% bluer than the statewide vote with 2012; but the same-level, Democratic success needs to be accomplished with Dallas County (which nearly flipped in 2012 for Mitt Romney, whose statewide margin of R+15.78, compared with a 2008 R+11.76 for John McCain, tells us one reason why Romney didn’t unseat Obama: He failed to shift Texas to a strong enough degree. He needed an average 8-point shift, state-by-state basis, to win over the popular vote. In 2008, Barack Obama beat McCain by a national margin of D+7.26.)
The one county I look out for in Texas is Tarrant County (Fort Worth). It is a bellwether county in connection to how the state votes. Here are some numbers (margins) from recent presidential elections in both Texas and Tarrant County:
2000
Texas: R+21.32
Tarrant County: R+23.96
Spread: 2.64%
2004
Texas: R+22.87
Tarrant County: R+25.38
Spread: 2.51%
2008
Texas: R+11.76
Tarrant County: R+11.70
Spread: 0.06%
2012
Texas: R+15.78
Tarrant County: R+15.69
Spread: 0.09%
There are some states where a given country has a knack for serving as a bellwether county (either nationally or statewide; some precious ones can be a combo of both). For example: In Colorado, Larimer County (Fort Collins) has voted for the presidential winner of the state of Colorado, with no broken streak, since Dwight Eisenhower was the Republican pickup winner of 1952 (and he likewise won Colo. in a GOP pickup). Larimer County has been at it for 16 consecutive presidential cycles. For a presidential candidate to carry Colorado, he/she has to win in Larimer County. In the case of Texas, right now it’s Tarrant County which best stands out. And I will leave the following articles as reference material which helps to support my claim that, for the Democrats to win over Texas, they will have to be able to figure out how to win in Tarrant County.
@ http://www.texastribune.org/2012/12/06/tarrant-county-may-point-texas-political-future/
@ http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/12/06/4466669/tarrant-county-viewed-as-texas.html
Wow, D, thanks for these intricate details which make the case that Fort Worth will decide if the Democrats can win statewide in Texas. And interestingly, these articles also show that the heroine of the moment, State Senator Wendy Davis, who is from Fort Worth, overcame the odds to win her seat in a heavily Republican area, and could just be the tipping point for the Democrats to win state wide, if she were to run for Governor against Rick Perry in 2014. It would be so satisfying if Davis could galvanize her party, and particularly women and Hispanics and Latinos state wide and start the move of Texas toward being “Blue” sooner rather than later! Thanks again for your insightful comments, and keep them coming!
Hello D,
I echo what Professor Ron has stated. A well thought out and conveyed posting. Good Job.
Overly optimistic. All the Republican Party needs to do is run a candidate better (more likeable) than Romney to completely destroy the figures organizations like BGTX are looking at. Further, a lot of issues which democrats support aren’t popular with many illegal immigrants (gay marriage, abortion, etc.) so any potential gains will either A.) for the democrats to become less progressive or B.) be temporary in nature.
Lastly, the comparisons between California and Texas are exactly why Texas won’t get close to purple. Republican leadership has kept the state in very good shape even through this past recession. Expecting Texas to swallow the same poll as California is naive at best.