Last Four Originally Elected Democratic Presidents Were Underdogs: Will That Happen Again In 2016?

In the past half century, four Democratic nominees for President, all considered “underdogs”, were elected President.

John F. Kennedy was an underdog in 1960, being a Roman Catholic nominee, thought unlikely to be nominated or elected, but defeating Vice President Richard Nixon, who was far better known.

Jimmy Carter was an underdog in 1976, the first Southern nominee for President since Zachary Taylor in 1848, and really considered the longest of long shots to be the Democratic nominee, and yet won the Presidency over President Gerald Ford.

Bill Clinton was an underdog in 1992, considered part of the “second tier” of possible Democratic nominees for President, and thought to be “dead in the water”, due to the Gennifer Flowers sex scandal, but managing to be the “Comeback Kid”, and win the nomination and the election against President George H. W. Bush.

And Barack Obama was certainly considered an underdog to Hillary Clinton in 2008, and being African American, seemed a particularly “long shot” to go all the way to the Presidency, defeating Senator John McCain of Arizona.

All four Democratic winners all had youth–Kennedy at 43, Carter at 52, Clinton at 46, and Obama at 47 years of age. And get this–these four men were elected exactly SIXTEEN years apart–1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008!

Could this happen again?

Hillary Clinton is seen as the clear front runner, and Joe Biden is the second established “veteran” in the potential race for President in 2016.

But could it be that Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, or Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, or Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, or Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, or Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, or a future Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, or Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts would end up as a sudden surprise during the primaries and caucuses in 2016, and emerge the nominee and the winner of the Presidency?

Who can say, but the past COULD be an indicator of the future!

3 comments on “Last Four Originally Elected Democratic Presidents Were Underdogs: Will That Happen Again In 2016?

  1. D March 25, 2013 11:25 am

    Those last four originally elected Democratic presidents were elected in party-pickup years.

    It does tell a narrative that the Democratic party has shown a talent for amazing and unique casting. (Since 1952, the Republican party have won the presidency when there was a Nixon or Bush on their ticket.)

    2016, it it turns out to be another victory for the party, would be a Democratic hold. It would be the first of such kind—after a two-term president of the same party—where we would get a third consecutive cycle won the same party since 1988. (In the decade of the 1980s, all three presidential elections—1980, 1984, and 1988—were won by the Republicans.)

    The speculation is really something. It can feel absurd to talk about 2016 when we are at a point of less than six months after the last U.S. presidential election . (As if Election 2012 didn’t go on long enough.)

  2. Young Progressive March 25, 2013 12:10 pm

    Great post Professor

  3. David M May 30, 2015 3:18 pm

    Or Bernie Sanders? #FeelTheBern

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