High Voting Percentage States: All Democratic In Presidential Election Of 2012!

New statistics demonstrate the success of the Democratic Party as the top five high voting percentage states are all Democratic:

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Hampshire
Iowa

These five states had a voter turnout of 76 down to 70 percent.

It turns out that 17 of the top 20 states in voter turnout voted Democratic, with only North Carolina, Montana and Missouri voting Republican.

If a state had “swing state” status or allowed same day registration on Election Day, voter participation was higher.

Only in four states (Utah,Colorado, Wisconsin, Massachusetts) and the District of Columbia was voter turnout higher than in 2008, an unusual event. Interestingly, Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney seem to have brought out more votes in their home states of Wisconsin and Massachusetts, but both lost their home states, Romney by a landslide, and Ryan losing not only his state, but his Congressional district and home city of Janesville, as well.

Also, California, Texas, and New York, the three largest states but never in play in a Presidential election, had low voter turnout for lack of interest and excitement about the election results.

With most attention being paid to about ten “swing states” where the Presidential elections are decided these days, it may indicate a trend of lower voter turnout, percentage wise, in the future, not a good development for American democracy.

Still, 27 states and the District of Columbia had voter participation rate of 60 percent or more, and only three (Oklahoma, West Virginia, Hawaii) under 50 percent.

5 comments on “High Voting Percentage States: All Democratic In Presidential Election Of 2012!

  1. D March 12, 2013 6:38 pm

    Adding to this…

    The turnout for 2012 having been reduced (from 2008) was expected. The combined 2008 vote for John McCain-vs.-Barack Obama was over 129.5 million. The 2012 Mitt Romney-vs.-Barack Obama was nearly 127 million. That is a significant dropoff. Wikipedia.org has a chart which allows one to see total votes cast in each state. Obama’s home state of Illinois is the No. 5 most-populous, yet its total presidential votes cast ranked it No. 7 with Election 2012. A better example is the difference between Texas and Florida. The Lone Star state is No. 2 in population while the Sunshine State ranks No. 4. Texas has 33% more electoral votes than Fla.—38 to 29. But it turned out that Fla. was No. 2-ranked for presidential votes cast while Texas was No. 3—and a good 500,000 more votes were cast in Fla. over Texas. Another fine example is the new bellwether state Colorado. More presidential votes were cast from this state, which has 9 electoral votes, than from its more-populous neighbor, Arizona, as well as Tennessee. (Both states have 11 electoral votes.)

    Ronald writes: “Still, 27 states and the District of Columbia had voter participation rate of 60 percent or more, and only three (Oklahoma, West Virginia, Hawaii) under 50 percent.”

    This helps explain why Mitt Romney won West Virginia by more than 25 percentage points. He carried every county in the state.

    W.Va. is a state that used to be carried by winning Democrats. This is also true with Arkansas and Missouri. Likewise Tennessee and Kentucky. Prior to Barack Obama, Mo. and Ark. were in the column for all prevailing Democrats, including the latter’s former governor (and the 42nd president) Bill Clinton.

    This is part of a changing electoral map, as George W. Bush was the first Republican elected without New Hampshire (2004) and who never once carried the following states which were part of the Repubicans’ winning maps prior to realigning the south (and, later, the north/northeast): Vermont, Illinois, California, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island. Those earlier mentioned states, plus Georgia and Louisiana, are among ones never once carried by the current, two-term-elected Democratic president. So, times do change—and along with it the electoral map.

  2. D March 12, 2013 6:41 pm

    “This is part of a changing electoral map, as George W. Bush was the first Republican elected without New Hampshire (2004) and who never once carried the following states which were part of the Repubicans’ winning maps prior to realigning the south (and, later, the north/northeast): Vermont, Illinois, California, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island.”

    Quick note: Strike Massachusetts. Two-term-elected 37th president of the United Staes Richard Nixon never carried it. (All others apply.)

  3. Ronald March 12, 2013 7:26 pm

    Very interesting analysis, and makes clear the changing political realignment going on, definitely favoring the Democrats for the long run, as of now.

  4. D March 13, 2013 3:17 am

    Ronald writes: “Very interesting analysis, and makes clear the changing political realignment going on, definitely favoring the Democrats for the long run, as of now.”

    A good amount of the electorate reflects such “changing political realignment.” But it’s also part of the parties’ doings. Franklin Roosevelt was instrumental at realigning the Democratic Party—with a coalition which won over African-Americans who previously identified with the Republicans. Lyndon Johnson delivered for them on Civil Rights. Richard Nixon targeted the Southern strategy as the future base for the Republican Party. Barry Goldwater wanted his party to become much more conservative. It was really Ronald Reagan who moved that area of the country into his party’s camp. (In 1984, all southern states gave the re-elected Reagan margins exceeding his national 18-point victory over Walter Mondale.)

    I looked at past presidential realigning periods to see how well these states recorded having voted with the elections’ winners. According to Wikipedia.org, “Walter Dean Burnham argued for a 30–36 year ‘cycle’ of realignments” which is a theory I believe, in part, becomes possible due to at least one major event, like a catalysts, which causes the voting electorate to turn and go to the competition. To identify collectively with a party that was in the minority and make them a new period’s majority—specifically for the presidency.

    I won’t write about too much about that, right now, but past realigning elections applicable to this—but with consideration only since the Republicans first competed in 1856—came in 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968. And I believe 2008 has joined that list.

    I went over each period. And I did that because one cannot just cite a current slate of bellwether states as having political power in determining election winners for the presidency.

    The current Top 10 states, ranked in population, are: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina. (These are reported as the rankings from Wikipedia.org effective 2012.)

    We have had plenty of elections where a prevailing candidate carried over 80 percent of available states. New Mexico and Arizona joined the union just over 100 years ago, as the 47th and 48th states, in 1912. From that year through 2008, there were 11 winning candidacies—a period of 25 cycles—in which the winner carried at least 80 percent of the available states. Those occurred in 1912 (40/48); 1928 (40/48); 1932 (42/48); 1936 (46/48); 1952 (39/48); 1956 (41/48); 1964 (44+D.C./50); 1972 (49/50); 1980 (44/50); 1984 (49/50); and 1988 (40/50). So, clearly, a winning map isn’t strung together only with the current “swing” and/or “bellwether” states—not even with today’s two-party system’s campaign approaches to focusing only on “the states in play.”

    Some interesting results.

    Here are today’s Top 10 states…followed by how many times each voted for the winner in these realigning presidetial periods. It shows adjustments, all right, rather than just automatically sticking a color on a state as if it’s the only worthy identifier. (* Recognition, with half-credit, applies to each of Elections 1876, 1888, and 2000—all of which were split outcomes for the popular vote-vs.-electoral vote winners.)

    1860–1892: Republican (seven of nine)
    • California: 7/9
    • Texas (seceded in 1864; did not participate in 1868): 3/7 (*1876, *1888)
    • New York: 7.5/9 (*1876)
    • Florida (seceded in 1864): 5.5/8 (*1888)
    • Illinois: 8/9
    • Pennsylvania: 7/9
    • Ohio: 7/9
    • Georgia: 3/8 (*1876, *1888)
    • Michigan: 7/9
    • North Carolina: 5/8 (*1876, *1888)

    1896–1928: Republican (seven of nine)
    • California: 8/9
    • Texas: 3/9
    • New York: 8/9
    • Florida: 3/9
    • Illinois: 8/9
    • Pennsylvania: 7/9
    • Ohio: 9/9
    • Georgia: 2/9
    • Michigan: 7/9
    • North Carolina: 3/9

    1932–1964: Democratic (seven of nine)
    • California: 8/9
    • Texas: 9/9
    • New York: 8/9
    • Florida: 8/9
    • Illinois: 9/9
    • Pennsylvania: 7/9
    • Ohio: 8/9
    • Georgia: 6/9
    • Michigan: 7/9
    • North Carolina: 7/9

    1968–2004: Republican (seven of ten)
    • California: 7.5/10 (*2000)
    • Texas: 8/10
    • New York: 6.5/10 (*2000)
    • Florida: 9/10
    • Illinois: 7.5/10 (*2000)
    • Pennsylvania: 7.5/10 (*2000)
    • Ohio: 10/10
    • Georgia: 7/10
    • Michigan: 6.5/10 (*2000)
    • North Carolina: 8/10

    • NOT ESTABLISHED • 2008–20xx: Democratic (two consecutive cycles played out thus far)
    • California: 2/2
    • Texas: 0/2
    • New York: 2/2
    • Florida: 2/2
    • Illinois: 2/2
    • Pennsylvania: 2/2
    • Ohio: 2/2
    • Georgia: 0/2
    • Michigan: 2/2
    • North Carolina: 1/2

    None of this applies a mitigating factor. (No partial credit.) I’m referring to a state that did not vote with the winner because it was the home state which carried for a losing presidential or vice-presidential nominee. Over those realinging presidential periods of 1896–1928 and 1932–1948, this was applicable with both California (1912 and 1960) and New York (1916 and 1948).

    Today’s Top 10 states add up to 256 electoral votes. Those ranking Nos. 11 to 20—that would be New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, Massachusetts, Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee, Missouri, Maryland, and Wisconsin—add another 113 electoral votes. President Obama carried 15 of those states in the possibly realigning presidential election of 2008. (This is before consideration of other, smaller-ranked bellwether states like Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico.)

  5. Ronald March 13, 2013 6:37 am

    WOW, thanks, D, for your detailed, revealing analysis, which makes it seem likely that we are in the midst of another 36 year realignment period, similar to four earlier ones. I appreciate your discussion in such great detail, state by state, of the four earlier realignment periods, as well as the one we are now, apparently, in. My readers will greatly appreciate it, as much as I do!

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