It seems more and more likely that the Republican Party will do their best to put a person of diversity status, either ethnically or gender, on their 2016 Presidential ticket as the only way to have a chance to win the White House.
This “diversity” primary contest for being on the national ticket would include:
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina
Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire
Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington
Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
So overall, there are seven Senators, four Governors, three Congresswomen well known enough, and Condoleezza Rice for the Republicans to choose from to have a “diversity” nominee for President or Vice President.
And when one looks at the list, it is clear that the only “real” choices are Rubio, Cruz, Ayotte, Jindal, Haley, and Rice, as a member of the House has not been nominated since 1880 (James Garfield), and the other choices are far less known, and come from smaller states in population, which undermines their candidacy. And Murkowski and Collins are far too “Moderate” to be the nominee of a right wing Republican Party!
But Rice is highly unlikely to be interested, although easily the most qualified of the six who could be nominated. Jindal and Haley have come across as mean spirited, uncaring Governors on the subject of immigration and health care. Ayotte has not distinguished herself by connecting to John McCain and Lindsey Graham as a “replacement” for Joe Lieberman. Cruz, being born in Canada, will create the issue of his eligibility to run for President, and his use of “McCarthyism” strategy against Chuck Hagel, Barack Obama’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, and his basic aggressive style after less than two months in office will not do him well in a Presidential campaign.
So Marco Rubio, with all of his “warts” and shortcomings, stands out as the best “diversity” candidate, with his coming from Florida, the fourth largest state, and the largest state in play in a Presidential campaign, being a plus!
But it could be that being from Florida is also a plus for former Governor Jeb Bush, who if only he could change his last name, would be the likely best choice for his party.
It could all come down to a final race between former Governor Jeb Bush, whose wife is Mexican American and speaks excellent Spanish, and Senator Marco Rubio, a Cuban American a full generation younger than Jeb Bush!
The Bush family would love to have a third family member win the presidency. (That has never happened before, and I’m not willing to bet on that happening during the course in the life of this nation’s history. However long it lasts.)
None of the listees have the chops to get elected to the presidency of the United States. The first woman president will hail from the Democratic, not Republican, party. Ted Cruz may be proof enough that we’ve had too many Texans as commander in chief since the last 50 years. He’s unelectable. Marco Rubio is attractive, from a bellwether state, yet he has no new ideas. He comes from a party that will have to come up with some. For the sake of their brand. And for their ability to sell it. And given that we’ve been electing presidents the last 100 years who hail from a Top-10 or Top-20 populous state, that knocks out all the rest.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Republican Party go after getting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to run. N.J. is No. 11 in population rank. But he comes from a blue state that voted for President Obama’s re-election beyond 10 points relative his national margin. Christie, should he become the party’s 2016 nominee, would have to have a national tide favoring his party which effectively causes a landslide victory which happens to also deliver N.J. and a string of states which vote like it in presidential elections. (Think of the map with 1976 Gerald Ford, who carried four states from New England as well as his home state of Michigan. They all turned their backs on the Republicans after the 1980s.)
I don’t think any of this is optimistic for this current Republican Party.
I wrote: “And given that weâ€™ve been electing presidents the last 100 years who hail from a Top-10 or Top-20 populous state, that knocks out all the rest.”
I meant to include in parentheses that the only exception is No. 42, Bill Clinton, from Arkansas. All the rest of the home states of those presidents of the 20th century, plus thus far with this one, hailed from either a Top-10 or Top-20 state. (I’ve seen some say Dwight Eisenhower counted his 1956 re-election home state as Pennsylvania and Kansas. His home state in 1952 was New York. Clinton stood out as he claimed Arkansas both times.)
I agree, D, that the GOP is doomed in 2016, and that coming from a small state is not a positive, with the one exception of Bill Clinton, who theoretically, with his sex scandal in 1992, should never have been nominated or elected. With the growing influence of large states, it seems inevitable that all Presidential nominees, or at least winners, will come from the top 20 states! So Jeb Bush just might be the answer for the GOP, although winning would be a long shot!