Anyone who studies and follows American politics knows the names of Nate Silver, who writes the 538 blog for the New York Times, and Michael Barone, who is a conservative pundit for Fox News Channel, and the principal author of the authoritative work, THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS.
The two men totally disagree on the results of today’s Presidential election, so much so that it is disturbing, because, obviously, one is totally wrong!
Silver is 34 years old, considered a political genius by many, and correctly predicted the Presidential Election Of 2008 and every Senate race, and uses statistical methods to decide what is going on politically, and his last assessment last night was that Barack Obama had a 91.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with a margin of 315-223.
Michael Barone, who is twice Silver’s age (68), and whose publication mentioned above has been regarded as the best single volume book every two years on the Presidential election, Congressional elections, and state gubernatorial elections–a literal gold mine of information on the 50 states and the national government— and a series that the author has had since the first publication forty years ago in 1972, says Mitt Romney will win the Electoral College by 315-223.
Notice that–the EXACT same electoral vote total–one by a man half the age of the second man—and both considered “experts”!
How can both be correct? The answer is that they cannot both be correct, so besides the results tonight and tomorrow morning, we are witnessing the battle of the “Experts”–and it will be interesting to see whether Silver or Barone is correct!
Very intresting indeed.
I find it hard to trust anyone connected to fox news in any way. Is this Barone person considered to be knowing what he is talking about or is he prone to going along with whatever Fox tells him to say? I ask because I have never heard of him so I don’t know if he is actually respectable.
I have every ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS, published every other year since 1972 to the present, and they are the best source on politics imaginable. I have always respected Barone, even though a conservative, as fair minded and intelligent and not a talk show host type. That is what worries me—which one, him or Nate Silver, is wrong? We shall find out shortly! The tension is in the air!
Well looks like Mr. Silver will have no doubt received much praise this morning and last night! I wonder how Mr. Barone is fairing today. Must be a rather awkward position to be put in.