This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.
Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.
The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!
So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.
Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.
It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.
Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.
Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.
This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.
Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!
Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!
I hope you are right. This election has been very stressful, I cannot wait until it is over, & Barack Obama is re-elected!
I still hope that Obama can win Florida, because I would be downright ashamed to live in a state that might help Romney win the office.
Honestly I will just be happy that he wins. That Mitt Romney will fade into oblivion and never be heard from again. I kind of feel as if all these polls the last month showing Romney leading blah blah blah are manufactured by the absurd amount of money that his campaign has spent. It seems to me to not even really be an accurate account of what is really going on and should Obama win all of the states then it will surly confirm this. It will also validate the idea that you can’t buy the Presidency no matter how much you spend and how many lies you tell.
Ali, it would be wonderful that lies and deception would prove to be repudiated as a way to win elections.
And the Citizens United case has been destructive, and it would be great if it was proved that simply spending money, as the billionaires such as the Koch Brothers and Sheldon Adelson have done, failed to deliver a victory. They deserve our repudiation big time, and the Supreme Court needs to revisit the case, because it is a travesty of democracy!
I couldn’t agree with you more.
I think if I had to name one thing in this country that I am more ashamed of then even Mitt Romney as a candidate, it would have to be the Supreme Court. Certain Justices on that court should be ashamed to wear the robes because they long ago threw out any respect for our laws, the constitution and our way of life. They have no idea what it means to be without bias or at the very least to shove their bias into a corner and act responsibly.
What do you think the chances are that the decision will be reversed if Obama is able to appoint a new Justice?
A case would have to be brought up to the Court, as it does not seek out cases to review.
If Ginsberg leaves first, which is likely, there is no difference in the balance of the Court. But if Scalia or Kennedy leave, particularly Scalia, it would make a dramatic difference.
If Breyer leaves, it is like Ginsberg, no change to the left.
Of course, if Romney is elected, the Court turns very far right when Ginsberg and Breyer leave the Court.
And there is no hope at all for Thomas or Alito to leave, as we are stuck with them until God takes them or they become so old, but Thomas seems to plan NEVER to leave, declaring he would stay until age 86, 43 years on the Court, breaking the record of 36 years set by William O.Douglas!
So the case might NEVER be reversed, and a constitutional amendment is hard to imagine passing both houses by a two thirds vote, and gaining 38 state legislatures support (3/4ths of 50)
I hate to use sports analogies, but if your “point spread” was a football game, I would take the “points” and bet on the underdog. Similar to that football game, as a bettor, you can have your cake and eat it, too. Your “team” wins and you have a few dollars in your pocket afterwards. ; )