Just a few days after an post about the likelihood that no third party would have a significant effect on the Presidential Election of 2012, suddenly the possibility arises that while no candidate is likely to win a state or gain a large percentage of votes, a 2000 Presidential Election scenario, where two candidates had small numbers of votes and percentage, and yet helped to determine the electoral vote in Florida, and therefore decide the winner of the Presidency, presents itself!
In 2000, Ralph Nader ran as the Green Party candidate and won 2.74 percent of the national vote, and Pat Buchanan ran as the Reform Party candidate and won 0.43 percent of the vote. But in Florida, about 97,000 people voted for Nader; and in Palm Beach Country, Florida, about 3,400 people incorrectly voted for Buchanan over Al Gore, because of confusion about filling out the infamous “butterfly” ballot, throwing the election in Florida to George W. Bush, and deciding the election of Bush over Al Gore.
Well, in theory, the same situation could arise in 2012, although highly unlikely that “lightning” would strike for a second time in 12 years.
Having said that, neither Ralph Nader nor Pat Buchanan were officeholders, while this election, two former governors are running, and cannot , therefore, be ignored!
The Libertarian Party has just nominated former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and the Reform Party is likely to nominate former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer in August at their convention in Philadelphia.
Just being governors gives them a lot of status and clout, so we cannot assume that they will have no effect on the election results, just hope and pray that that is so!
Hello Professor,
As I see it, both the Libertarian Party, and the Reform Party will be drawing votes from Mitt Romney which can only help the President. I will look forward to your thoughts.
Actually, I totally agree with you on this issue.
Both are Republicans and are unlikely to affect Obama’s vote totals, so hopefully, we will not have another 2000 election debacle. After all, Nader took away from Gore in Florida, which actually mattered more than Buchanan gaining some votes in Palm Beach County by mistake.
You are very perceptive, but let’s just say that until the election is over, we cannot afford to be other than watchful!
Hello Professor,
Oh I whole heartily agree to never underestimate the opposition. We must be very WATCHFUL!!
That being said Francois Hollande has just become the President of France! This is truly good news my friend!! Hooray for sanity!!
Maybe those “Independent Swing Votes†will sit up and take notice that maybe they too should carpetly throw out the Ultra Conservative Wing Nuts from not only the National level but State levels too.
Vive La États-Unis
Yes, the news from France is very good, but of course, the GOP will argue that they are SOCIALISTS, and that we do not want to be like France, a la Bill O’Reilly on Fox News Channel! 🙂