Virginia: A “Swing” State, Or Democratic In 2012 Presidential Election?

Virginia is typically considered a Southern state, but as Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia terms it, it has become more like a Mid Atlantic state.

The reasons for this include:

1. Northern Virginia has become a substantial part of the population of the state, tends to be more liberal than the rest of the state, and many of the people living in Northern Virginia work for the federal government, are more educated, and tend to vote Democratic.

2. The minority population of the Virginia, of all ethnic groups, has gone up from 20 percent to 30 percent of the state, so if a large percentage of them vote, it is bound to benefit Barack Obama.

3. Virginia voted for Obama in 2008 by about six percent margin, and if the economy continues to improve, it is unlikely that the state will vote against Obama, when one considers the above two factors.

So the likelihood at this point is that the “swing state” of Virginia will stay in the Democratic column this fall, even though the state government is controlled by the Republicans. Presidential elections and state elections do not always synchronize in many states across the nation.

One comment on “Virginia: A “Swing” State, Or Democratic In 2012 Presidential Election?

  1. Engineer Of Knowledge February 11, 2012 11:52 am

    Hello Professor,
    As I am from the Mid-Atlantic State of Maryland, we have always considered Virginia a Mid-Atlantic State along with Delaware and Pennsylvania.

    This being said I do agree with you that Virginia does have the “Southern State” aspect as Maryland does too. The Southern Counties of Maryland just east of Washington D.C. and most definitely the Eastern Shore Peninsula’s Counties.

    Just as Maryland has the duel aspects of basically being liberal in voting as a whole, much like New England States, there is still the schizophrenic variable of being Southern. This is the same case for Virginia.

    The first statement that “Northern Virginia has become a substantial part of the population of the state, tends to be more liberal than the rest of the state, and many of the people living in Northern Virginia work for the federal government, are more educated, and tend to vote Democratic,” is “Spot On” accurate. The other predictable areas are the Jerry Falwell dominate influences of Lynchburg and the large radius drawn in the Southwestern part of the state from that datum point origin is going to vote as Radically Religious Conservative Right, much like any mindless, non-critically thinking zombie would, as any place I can conceive. The sections in play will be the Southeastern coastal areas which would also include Richmond. With the other two areas I have spoken about being equal, this area will be the “Toss Up” variable in the equation.

    You also bring up a good point that the minority population of the Virginia has gone up from 20 percent to 30 percent of the state, but there is the repressive “Voter Registration” movement that would limit this demographic segment from even voting. This factor will depend on the success or failure of the movement.

    Finally, Virginia did vote for Obama in 2008 by a slim margin, and the U.S. economy improving is a “BIG IF” as it will be subservient to Europe’s economies’ conditions.

    All being said, I am of the mind, and sadly I should add, the state will vote against President Obama.

    The best hope for the President and Congressional Districts, even should the economy improve to palatable levels, much will depend on the Northern Virginia areas turning out in masses and the Democratic Party concentrating much of their efforts before hand in the Southeastern Counties.

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