The House Of Representatives: How Many Seats Will The Republicans Gain?

It is time to start assessing and prognosticating how the election results will play out this coming Tuesday!

It will likely take a few days to be sure of the final results in all 435 races for the House of Representatives.

As the author sees it, there is no question that the opposition party will win seats, as that is traditional in a midterm election.

The question is whether the Republicans will be able to gain a net total of 39 seats, with the expectation that the Democrats will win 4-6 Republican held seats, which effectively means that the GOP will have to gain 43-45 seats.

Predictions are between the low 30s and the very high number of 60-70 seats if there is a total collapse of the Democrats on Election Day.

The belief of the author is that, after all the votes are in, the Republicans will gain a net total of 33 seats, six short of a majority, meaning a House of Representatives with 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans!

Of course, with such a small margin, it is always possible, after the fact, that six or seven Democratic survivors who are more moderate to conservative could switch over to the Republican party, and have an effect on organization of the House in January!

So, imagine a Democratic held House by a small margin where a few Democrats votes to back a Republican Speaker of the House!

So will Nancy Pelosi be Speaker of the House in a closely divided House, or will she bow out and even possibly resign from her seat?

The prediction is that to manage to keep the small Democratic majority, she will resign and be replaced by her deputy, seen as somewhat more moderate, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland!

And should the GOP gain enough seats to win control of the House of Representatives, will John Boehner become Speaker of the House? Don’t bet on it, as one must watch the “Young Guns”, led by House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, and Paul Ryan, who are overly ambitious and much more aggressive, and planning for future leadership in the House. So if Boehner ends up as the Speaker, he will know he has these younger members sniping at his heels, ready to undermine him if he does not tow to their line!

So in summary, neither Nancy Pelosi nor John Boehner will have an easy time if either is the potential Speaker of the House in the 112th Congress!

It is more likely that Steny Hoyer or Eric Cantor will be the ultimate beneficiary of these congressional elections two days from now!

One comment on “The House Of Representatives: How Many Seats Will The Republicans Gain?

  1. steve November 3, 2010 11:05 am

    The professor was wrong

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