The Census Undercount And Its Possible Effect On The Future

A crisis has arisen in the US Census Bureau, as the top four states in population, plus Number 14 (Arizona), are in danger of being under counted in the once a decade census count which determines federal aid to the states, reapportionment of seats for the US House of Representatives, and the number of electoral votes the states have for Presidential elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

California, Texas, New York and Florida, along with Arizona, also, coincidentally (or is it that? ), have the highest number of Hispanic or Latino residents. One has to speculate that the growing crackdown on illegal immigration, accelerated by the new Arizona law, may be influencing people of Latin American heritage, whether legal or illegal, to be afraid of government, and be unwilling, therefore, to cooperate with government and fill out any government forms.

Of course, the push by Tea Party Movement people, and Republican members of Congress, such as Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, to make people feel fear of government intrusion, could also be having a deleterious effect on cooperation with the census.

But as things stand now, New York and California are in danger of losing seats, and Texas, Arizona and Florida might not gain additional House seats, and in the process, all five states could have less influence on Presidential elections than one would expect, considering their tremendous size and impact on the nation as a whole.

Instead, Minnesota, Oregon and North Carolina could gain extra House seats and electoral votes, because those states have a higher participation rate than the five states mentioned above.

The next two and a half months will determine the final results, as Census workers fan out to try and gain cooperation in these five states and elsewhere.

One must point out that ALL people living in the country are supposed to be counted, including illegal immigrants, but the Census looks in danger of a greater under count, percentage wise, than ever in recent history!

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