With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.
This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.
Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.
If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.
With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!
So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:
Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:
All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes
Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes
Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes
Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes
Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes
So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.
Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46
That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.
However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:
Lower and Middle Income Voters
Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)
Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants
Young People Under 35
Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!
So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?
In order as follows:
Arizona–11 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Georgia–16 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Montana–3 electoral votes
Kansas–6 electoral votes
Texas–38 electoral votes
So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.
The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:
West Virginia 5
South Carolina 9
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)
But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!
Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!
So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.
If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!
And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!
The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!