Day: August 25, 2012

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

Missouri Senate Race Could Lead To Obama Victory In “Bellwether” State

Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this year’s Senate races, but the flap and controversy over the remarks of Republican nominee Todd Akin six days ago has led to McCaskill, who was trailing Akin, to take a nine point lead in the latest polling.

IF McCaskill can continue to keep a lead over Akin, and nine points is a massive edge at this point, 73 days out, then President Obama has the prospect of carrying Missouri, which he lost to John McCain by about 4,000 votes in 2008.

Remember again that Missouri has been a “bellwether” state since the beginning of the 20th century, with only 1956 and 2008 having the Presidential winner lose Missouri, so it would be very welcome to Obama to win the 10 electoral votes of the “Show Me” state in November, and improve his chances of winning the Electoral College, which now are excellent, even without Missouri!