Day: July 13, 2011

Quinnipiac Polls Shows Dangers To Mitt Romney In Republican Presidential Race

Mitt Romney seems to many to be the only hope for “moderate” Establishment Republicans, as at least for now, Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty are both floundering in the polls.

But Romney actually faces great dangers, as Michele Bachmann is surging, as shown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, having 14 percent to Romney’s 25 percent. Also, two non-candidates, Sarah Palin and Rick Perry follow, with Palin having 12 percent and Perry 10 percent, both considered far Right as Bachmann is!

Also, Barack Obama polls ahead of all GOP opponents for the Presidency, with a lead of 6 points over Romney, 12 points over Bachmann, 19 points over Palin, and 13 percent over Perry!

Obama’s greatest support is among women, leading Romney by 11 points, and Bachmann by 17 points! Among men, Romney only leads Obama by ONE point, and Obama leads Bachmann among men by EIGHT percent! And among independents, Romney leads Obama by two points, but Obama is ahead against all others, by 10 over Perry, three over Bachmann, and by 17 over Palin.

It is clear that the only real hope, as things stand, for the Republican Party, is to nominate Mitt Romney and hope for the best, but even Romney seems weak, and has a major challenge overcoming the Tea Party radicals led by Michele Bachmann, and possibly also Sarah Palin and Rick Perry!

So these are indeed difficult times for the Republican Party, not that they don’t deserve it!

The URGENT Need For Public Works Projects And Infrastructure Improvements!

With more than 14 million people out of work, and a 9.2 percent unemployment rate officially, and probably a REAL unemployment rate of 14 percent or more, it is an URGENT need for President Obama to call upon Congress for public works projects and infrastructure improvements!

One may ask what are the odds that such a program would make it through the House of Representatives with a Republican majority, and a Senate where the Republicans could filibuster such legislation!

That is not really the point, as this is a MORAL cause, not just for the workers who would benefit and pay taxes and improve the country, but for all of us, who would benefit from improvements in our roads, bridges, canals, rivers, lakes, tunnels, national parks, parks, schools, hospitals and all other public places!

We need what Franklin D. Roosevelt promoted in the 1930s as part of his New Deal–the Civilian Conservation Corps, the Works Projects Administration, the Public Works Administration, the National Youth Administration–to give opportunity and hope to our citizenry and make this country a better place!

And if such promotion of public works fails to pass, President Obama can use it as a campaign issue agaInst the Republicans, and how can anyone imagine losing votes on the concept of job opportunity for those out of work?

So this is a winning issue, both for its morality and righteousness, and politically as well, because, assuredly, the Republican Party will fight it tooth and nail to the bitter end, since they have NO interest in creating jobs, and have done nothing to promote it in the seven months they have controlled the House of Representatives!

So Barack Obama should pursue this, and tell the Republicans to “Bring It On”, the fight that will ensue over it!

The Coming Implosion Of The Republican Party: Congress And The Presidential Race!

Just as Barack Obama shows evidence of great fund raising, an all time high, and the Republicans show weakness in fund raising, the Republican Party is facing an implosion on both the Congressional and Presidential campaign level!

The Debt Ceiling Crisis has shown chinks in the armor of the Congressional Republicans, as the leadership of John Boehner and Mitch McConnell has split the Republicans on Capitol Hill, into the predictable split between Establishment Republicans and the Tea Party Movement freshmen in the House and a few in the US Senate!

Boehner has been pressured by his deputy, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who is obviously trying to overrule Boehner and push him out, as everyone in the know is aware of Cantor’s personal ambitions to be Speaker of the House!

McConnell, convinced that no deal on the debt ceiling extension can be reached, has come up with a plan he thinks will help the Republicans win control of Congress and the White House in 2012, declaring he cannot work with Obama. His plan is to allow three votes of disapproval on extensions of the debt limit–one now, one in the Fall and one in the Summer of 2012, assuring an extension of the debt but with only Democrats voting for it, giving Republicans a campaign issue to be used in the upcoming election, and avoiding the financial uncertainties of NOT raising the debt ceiling.

Tea Party freshmen are furious at McConnell, and Boehner who has backed him, so a rebellion within the party is in evidence, with Eric Cantor leading it in the House and Jim DeMint and Rand Paul in the Senate!

The thought that the Republicans will somehow be able to use this debt issue as a way to win control of the executive and legislative branches in 2012 is a real long shot, as it is not as if the Republicans did not raise the debt ceiling SEVEN times under George W. Bush! It is much more likely to reverberate against them, and with a split party in Congress, actually cause them to lose seats in both chambers and likely lose control of the House of Representatives, where a switch of 25 seats gives Democrats control, not all that hard to attain!

And with Michele Bachmann surging as the real threat to Establishment Republicans and Mitt Romney, we could see Bachmann become the nominee, and end up as the Barry Goldwater of 2012, as to imagine her winning the White House and helping her party to win control of both houses of Congress requires hallucination on a major scale!

To top it off, IF Sarah Palin or Rick Perry, or both, end up running for the Presidency, still hard to imagine or conceive, it will only complicate the situation even further, and undermine GOP hopes for control, so it is now more likely that they will go back to minority status, through their own ineptness and incompetence, and failure to recognize the needs of the American people in the midst of the aftermath of the Great Recession!

Obama And Democratic Fund Raising Far Outpaces Republicans In Presidential Race!

President Obama’s 2012 campaign raised $86 million in the second quarter of 2011, far outpacing the Republicans who raised only about $35 million, less than the $38 million of the Democratic National Committee portion of Obama’s $86 million!

Mitt Romney gained about half of the $35 million, a total of $18 million, with everyone else in the GOP far behind, although Michele Bachmann has not yet released her totals for the second quarter.

The pace of fund raising far outdoes what George W. Bush did in 2004 and Obama himself in 2008, and it proves that it is likely that Obama will raise $1 billion for his campaign by the time it is over!

With such a large Democratic advantage in fund raising, it will be harder for Republicans to run a substantive campaign against Obama, so with all of the problems that Obama has to face, and the challenges he has daily, this is wonderful news!

Fascinating “Presidential Freshness” Test: The 14 Year “Window”

National Journal writer Jonathan Rauch has brought up an interesting point about American history and the Presidency.

What he calls the “Presidential Freshness” Test demonstrates that for someone to be elected President, that person must NOT have been in high public office more than 14 years when he or she runs for the White House.

High public office means the office of Governor or Senator, and under the Presidential Freshness concept, only three announced candidates fit within it–Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and Mitt Romney, although Sarah Palin and Rick Perry, both unannounced and unlikely to run, also fit within the limits.

Being a member of the House is no help, as none have ever been elected President, with the exception of James Garfield in 1880, and he was assassinated after only six months in office in 1881.

So therefore, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are not considered to have any chance under this test, and Newt Gingrich has a double whammy, being a House member and Speaker in the past, and also having much more than 14 years since his first election.

So every President of the past century has met the maximum of 14 years experience, with the exception of Lyndon B. Johnson who succeeded upon the death of John F. Kennedy, and then was elected for a full four year term.

What it comes down to is that a Presidential candidate can wear out his welcome and be seen as “stale” if he has been on the scene more than 14 years when running for President, so too much experience in years is NOT a plus!

It will be interesting to see if the Presidential Freshness test works in this upcoming election contest!