Archive for October, 2010
The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!
Posted by Ronald in News and Politics on October 31, 2010
The Governorship elections nationally, in 37 states, are crucial for the future of both Democrats and Republicans, due to the 2010 census and its effect on reapportionment of state legislatures and congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Governors have the power to affect political balances for the next decade, and the news is not good for Democrats, as it is clear that the Republicans will have 30 Governorships after the election results are in!
What major states will the Democrats win?
New York–Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino
California–Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman
Florida–Alex Sink over Rick Scott
Maryland–Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich
Minnesota–Mark Dayton over Tom Emmer
Oregon–John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley
Colorado–John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes
Hawaii–Neil Abercrombie over James Aiona
Massachusetts–Deval Patrick over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill
New Hampshire–John Lynch over John Stephen
Connecticut–Dan Malloy over Tom Foley
Illinois–Pat Quinn over Bill Brady
Michigan–Virg Bernero over Rick Snyder
Arkansas–Mike Beebe over Jim Keet
Add the following states that don’t have gubernatorial elections in 2010, but have Democratic Governors:
Delaware–Jack Markell
Kentucky–Steve Beshear
Missouri–Jay Nixon
Montana–Brian Schweitzer
North Carolina–Beverly Perdue
Washington–Christine Gregoire
If Republicans have 30 Governorships as predicted, it will be four more than they have now, including the following prominent Governors:
Arizona–Jan Brewer over Terry Goddard
Ohio–John Kasich over Ted Strickland
Rhode Island-Independent Lincoln Chafee (formerly Republican) over Frank Caprio and John Robitaille
Texas–Rick Perry over Bill White
Kansas–Sam Brownback over Tom Holland
South Carolina–Nikki Haley over Vincent Sheheen
Alaska–Sean Parnell over Ethan Berkowitz
Wisconsin–Scott Walker over Tom Barrett
Pennsylvania–Tom Corbett over Dan Onorato
Iowa–Terry Brandstad over Chet Culver
Georgia–Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes
Add the following GOP Governors who do not face re-election this year:
Indiana–Mitch Daniels
Louisiana–Bobby Jindal
Mississippi–Haley Barbour
New Jersey-Chris Christie
Virginia–Bob McDonnell
These sixteen Republicans are added to by Governors in the following states:
Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.
So if the author’s projections are correct, it will be 20 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Independent Republican (Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island)!
The one saving grace for the Democrats is the likelihood of Democratic Governors in three of the top four states–California, Florida and New York–a gain of two key states that have had GOP Governors, and states that have many more seats in the House of Representatives that can be affected by gubernatorial impact on reapportionment!
The House Of Representatives: How Many Seats Will The Republicans Gain?
Posted by Ronald in News and Politics on October 31, 2010
It is time to start assessing and prognosticating how the election results will play out this coming Tuesday!
It will likely take a few days to be sure of the final results in all 435 races for the House of Representatives.
As the author sees it, there is no question that the opposition party will win seats, as that is traditional in a midterm election.
The question is whether the Republicans will be able to gain a net total of 39 seats, with the expectation that the Democrats will win 4-6 Republican held seats, which effectively means that the GOP will have to gain 43-45 seats.
Predictions are between the low 30s and the very high number of 60-70 seats if there is a total collapse of the Democrats on Election Day.
The belief of the author is that, after all the votes are in, the Republicans will gain a net total of 33 seats, six short of a majority, meaning a House of Representatives with 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans!
Of course, with such a small margin, it is always possible, after the fact, that six or seven Democratic survivors who are more moderate to conservative could switch over to the Republican party, and have an effect on organization of the House in January!
So, imagine a Democratic held House by a small margin where a few Democrats votes to back a Republican Speaker of the House!
So will Nancy Pelosi be Speaker of the House in a closely divided House, or will she bow out and even possibly resign from her seat?
The prediction is that to manage to keep the small Democratic majority, she will resign and be replaced by her deputy, seen as somewhat more moderate, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland!
And should the GOP gain enough seats to win control of the House of Representatives, will John Boehner become Speaker of the House? Don’t bet on it, as one must watch the “Young Guns”, led by House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, and Paul Ryan, who are overly ambitious and much more aggressive, and planning for future leadership in the House. So if Boehner ends up as the Speaker, he will know he has these younger members sniping at his heels, ready to undermine him if he does not tow to their line!
So in summary, neither Nancy Pelosi nor John Boehner will have an easy time if either is the potential Speaker of the House in the 112th Congress!
It is more likely that Steny Hoyer or Eric Cantor will be the ultimate beneficiary of these congressional elections two days from now!
The Florida Senate Race:Voting For Kendrick Meek A Lost Cause!
Posted by Ronald in Uncategorized on October 30, 2010
Congressman Kendrick Meek of Miami has been a good public servant to his congressional district, but his Senate campaign is a hopeless exercise in futility!
There have been reports that former President Bill Clinton, a good friend of Meek, and a vigorous campaigner for Meek in the past month, has been urging him to withdraw from the Senate contest in Florida, due to his low poll ratings, and the real danger that Marco Rubio, who represents the extreme right wing of the Republican and Tea Party Movement, seems about ready to win the Senate seat next Tuesday.
One can be a party loyalist, but one also needs to be a party realist, and even at this late date, Kendrick Meek should realize the handwriting on the wall, and withdraw from the race, and endorse Governor Charlie Crist, who is seen as very liikely to caucus with the Democrats if he was fortunate enough to win the Senate seat.
Crist has already admitted that it would be difficult to caucus with the Republican party which has trashed him so badly, and Crist has shown as Governor that he has courage and a willingness to reconsider some of his more conservative views. This should be seen as a sign of maturity and growth, not as a cynical political move!
All Democrats and progressives in Florida, whether or not Meek withdraws, should face reality and cast their ballot for Charlie Crist as the best choice for our new Senator, and pray that Marco Rubio, with his right wing agenda, is overcome by Crist, despite the pessimistic results of public opinion polls!
The Importance Of The Alaska Senate Race: A Chance To Repudiate Sarah Palin!
Posted by Ronald in News and Politics on October 29, 2010
Who would have thought that the Alaska Senate race would become such a center of attention?
Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, best described as a moderate conservative, was too lax in campaigning in the primary against Tea Party favorite Joe Miller, and lost her party’s nomination by a very small margin of votes.
Joe Miller has turned out to be a true disaster, with his outrageous views on many issues; the controversy over private security roughing up a journalist and briefly handcuffing him at a Miller public event; and Miller admitting to illegal actions at his workplace, leading to his suspension and admission to having lied!
This man is one of the worst of all of the Tea Party activists running as Republicans in this fall’s election, and while he was first in polls for a long time, he has now dropped to third place behind Murkowski, who seems to be about to achieve victory as a write in candidate, and Democrat Scott McAdams, mayor of Sitka, Alaska!
If either McAdams, who has been gaining support–or Murkowski as a write in candidate–was to defeat Miller, it would be a major victory against the Tea Party movement!
But it would also be a major blow in prestige to former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who is actively considering running for President in 2012, and has backed Miller!
Palin said yesterday that Murkowski was a “liberal”, which is totally ridiculous, but shows just how far right Palin is, and how it is essential to deflate her ego and image, as a way to weaken her Presidential bid!
So either a victory for Murkowski, or for McAdams, would be a major contribution to the dignity of the US Senate, and would send a message to Sarah Palin that she should realize that the American people, based on public opinion polls, do not see her as qualified for the Presidency, and that she would effectively destroy the Republican party if she were to run–whether she became the actual nominee of the party or failed to do so!
Again, it must be said that Senator John McCain did tremendous damage to this country by selecting Palin as his running mate in 2008! We are not ready to elect a candidate as dense and stupid and clueless as Sarah Palin is!
So as the author said in a posting awhile back, Sarah, face the facts, that you are NOT qualified to be President, and just milk the ignorant part of the population with your public appearances, your books, and your cable show, and make money, but DO NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT, and embarrass yourself and the American people and undermine the potential future of this country!
Christianity And Science: The Pope Sets An Example!
Posted by Ronald in News and Politics on October 29, 2010
Pope Benedict XVI spoke up yesterday in the Vatican in support of science and scientists, although he insisted that God created the universe!
This is a step forward by an important organized religion leader, and it should set a standard for other Christians to emulate!
Unfortunately, there are too many evangelical Christian sects who reject science, and preach a narrow view of religion which has, in the past, included a belief in slavery and racial segregation, and now includes anti gay rhetoric in many of these churches!
Even more unfortunate is the fact that many Republican and conservative politicians and talk show hosts have adopted an anti science view, including refusal to consider the validity of evolution and the reality of climate change and global warming!
There is no reason why one cannot believe in God, but also believe in science, and also see the evil of promoting hate and narrow mindedness in the name of God! Promoting ignorance and hate is a sacrilege in itself!
Arkansas School Board Member Clint McCance MUST Be Removed For Anti Gay Hate Mongering! :(
Posted by Ronald in News and Politics on October 28, 2010
Clint McCance, the Vice President of the School Board of the Midland school district in northern Arkansas, who claims to be a “good Christian” has stirred up a tremendous outrage among decent people by issuing an anti gay tirade on his Facebook account!
Calling gays “fags” and “queers”, McCance asserted that he is disgusted that there is so much sympathy being expressed for gay kids who have committed suicide in recent weeks!
He said it would be best that all gays commit suicide, and that it was good that gays cannot procreate!
He also said that if his kids were gay, he would disown them, but that they were aware that they could not expect his love and support, were they to reveal themselves as gay!
It is horrible enough that such an excuse for a human being exists, and that he would treat his own children in such a despicable way, were they to be gay!
But it is absolutely unacceptable for such a hate monger and bigot to be involved on a school board which deals with the growth and development of children and adolescents, with the certainty that some are already, or will discover that they are gay!
No school board should contain people who promote such hate and narrow mindedness!
There must be a recall movement to remove this scum from the school board! Find another career, Mr. McCance, but not around children who will become your victims, and not around children who will feel they have an endorsement to bully other adolescents who might be gay!
What a disgrace and a commentary on supposedly “good Christians” who promote hate and prejudice in the name of Jesus Christ, who would not approve of such behavior!
The Governors: Key To Reapportionment Battles For The Next Decade!
Posted by Ronald in News and Politics on October 28, 2010
While so much attention has been addressed to the US Senate and House races this election year, the voters’ choices of 37 Governors are crucial for the long term health, or lack of it, of the two major political parties for the next decade!
This is due to the fact that the Governors will have the major input to the approval of reapportionment plans in the states for seats in the US House of Representatives, as well as state legislative districts.
Even if the state legislature is controlled by one party, if the Governor in office in 2011 is of the opposition party, it can have a dramatic effect on how the districts are gerrymandered, and can determine fortunes politically for the next ten years!
This is particularly significant in large states such as Texas, California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, among others.
So the state governorship races require more analysis than would be often imagined, because of their effect on the national political scene!